In the past two days, the Philippines' attitude toward China can be said to have changed again and again. #军史观察团#
First of all, the Philippine presidential office defined the recent confrontation between China and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao as a "misunderstanding", showing that it does not want to make a big deal out of it. As a result, it didn't take long for this statement to be overturned by Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro.
Teodoro clamored that the Philippines will continue to ship supplies to Ren'ai Jiao, and will not announce any supply activities in advance and disclose the specific schedule.
In response to the Philippines' resupply at Ren'ai Jiao, the first red line that China has drawn for the Philippines is to require the Philippines to inform China of the resupply schedule in advance. Teodoro's provocative remarks are clearly another attempt to confront China.
The Philippines initially wanted to calm things down, most likely because it was disappointed with the United States. Before and after the Philippine ship forcibly intruded into Ren'ai Jiao, the United States only provided verbal support to the Philippines.
At present, the new regulations of the China Coast Guard have come into effect, and in the current confrontation between China and the Philippines, the law enforcement efforts of the China Coast Guard have also been significantly upgraded. In the absence of confirmation that the United States will actually protect the Philippines, the Philippines certainly does not dare to risk continuing to provoke China.
The reason for the turning point should be that the US military announced a military deployment plan in the past two days, which has rekindled the hope of the Philippines.
Here's the thing: US Marine Corps Commander Smith announced in the past two days that they will deploy a "littoral combat regiment" on Guam to deter China from "attacking" the Philippines and other allies.
Although this military deployment is expected to wait several years, and the specific so-called deterrent capability is unknown, from the perspective of the Philippines, they cannot afford not to respond.
In the past, the Philippines has taken tough actions and displayed a tough stance on the South China Sea issue, mainly in order to get more military support from the United States. When we see that the US military is currently showing a strong Philippine side in its actions, the Philippines naturally does not want to miss this opportunity.
However, not long after Teodoro shouted, the Philippine military realized that something was wrong. In the direction of Ren'ai Jiao, the Chinese coast guard began to play a tough game, directly dispatching the 10,000-ton giant ship "5901" to carry out law enforcement tasks at Ren'ai Jiao.
According to public navigation data, the "5901" ship not only appeared at Ren'ai Jiao, but also went to Xianbin Jiao and other islands and reefs in the South China Sea where friction between China and the Philippines had occurred in the past.
The dispatch of the 10,000-ton giant ship by the China Coast Guard is undoubtedly the most direct response to Teodoro's clamour.
So, the reversal will appear again. Less than 24 hours after Teodoro's clamour, Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro quickly stated that the Philippines hopes to hold a dialogue with China on the South China Sea issue, which is scheduled for July this year.
Perhaps to demonstrate the sincerity of the Philippines' dialogue, Manaro also emphasized that, first, maritime differences are not the whole story of China-Philippines bilateral relations; Second, the Philippines hopes to resolve the recent frictions between China and the Philippines over maritime issues through diplomatic channels.
On the surface, it seems that the Philippines intends to soften on China, but in reality it may not be so.
First of all, we have not given the Philippines the opportunity to dialogue in the past, but the Philippines has either turned a deaf ear or said one thing and did another. Even if the dialogue between China and the Philippines in July goes smoothly, it is estimated that it will be difficult to make any substantive progress.
Second, it is likely to be a delaying tactic by the Philippines.
Taking Guam's military surge as an example, even Smith said that the relevant deployment will be completed in the next few years. Even if the United States does plan to send troops from Guam to protect the Philippines, it will take time.
At the same time, the Chinese coast guard has even dispatched 10,000-ton ships, and the Philippines will probably have little chance of carrying out tough actions in a short period of time. In particular, once more intense friction occurs between China and the Philippines, the Philippines will only become more difficult to ride the tiger. If they retreat, Marcos will not be able to account to the pro-American forces and hardliners at home, but if they continue to rush forward, the Philippines will become cannon fodder.
A few days ago, a former US military officer shouted at the Philippines, admitting that the United States is only using the Philippines as a tool to confront China. If the Philippines wants to embody its value, it can only stay at the stage of cooperating with the United States to confront China, otherwise it will become a victim of the United States.
In addition, Balisacan, a senior Philippine official in charge of the economy, recently called out to China in the hope of separating the economy from politics. The background is that China has just reached a number of cooperation agreements with Malaysia, including durian imports. Such shouting should be that the Philippines is worried that as Sino-Philippine relations deteriorate, they will further lose Chinese investment and trade.
Then, the Philippines wants to properly handle its maritime differences with China at this time, and it cannot be ruled out that it is also ready to ask China for benefits.
Generally speaking, on the South China Sea issue, China's position on properly handling differences through dialogue and consultation has not changed. But if the China-Philippines dialogue is to achieve concrete results, or for China-Philippines relations to turn around, the key is always whether the Philippines can take action to restore our trust in the Philippines.