Since the beginning of this year, there has been a fierce contest in the Philippine political arena!
With Marcos Jr.'s political allies in parliament attacking Vice President Sarah Duterte over classified funds, the contradictions between the Marcos family and the Duterte family in the Philippines have become public!
The rift in the Marcos-Duterte alliance has deepened as Marcos Jr. has reversed the policies of the Duterte administration and strengthened ties with the United States. Therefore, many media speculate that this may lead to a "break" between the two major political families in the Philippines - the Duterte family and the Marcos family! So far, the Duterte family has taken three steps to cut ties with the Marcos family.
One is that Duterte, now 79, is preparing to run for the Senate.
In January last year, Duterte said he was ready to leave politics because he was tired and wanted to take a good rest. Therefore, the news that Duterte is preparing to run for the Senate has taken Philippine politics by surprise. As the saying goes, the tree wants to be quiet and the wind does not stop! Today's Philippine politics is already quite sinister, especially since the Marcos Jr. government has begun to launch an active offensive against the Duterte family, in this case, Duterte has no other way out, even if he does not fight.
The second is the resignation of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte.
Of course, Sara remains the vice president of the Philippines because it is a democratically elected position, and she announced her resignation as a cabinet member, secretary of education, and vice chair of a national task force. Sara is the daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, a strong supporter of Duterte, and a political ally of current President Ferdinand Marcos. Therefore, Sarah's resignation now is undoubtedly taking the initiative to cut ties with Marcos.
Third, the Duterte family will go all out to prepare for the midterm elections.
It should be said that Lao Du's family is still very prosperous. Duterte's eldest son, Paul Duterte, 49, has been a Davao City District 1 councilor since 2019. From 2019 to 2020, he also served as Vice Speaker of the Philippine House of Representatives. And Sebastian Duterte, Duterte's youngest son, 36 years old, has served as the mayor of Davao since June 2022, which is also the home base of the old Duterte family.
Philippine ABS-CBN TV recently pointed out that Duterte and his son plan to participate in the Philippine Senate midterm elections in May 2025. The Philippine Senate is composed of 24 senators who serve six-year terms, and next year's midterm elections will re-elect 12 senators, as well as a number of local executives.
Duterte, along with his eldest son, Paul, have been popular candidates for the Senate. Now, from the "patriarch" Lao Du, to Lao Du's eldest son Paul Duterte, and Sebastian, the youngest son of the mayor of Davao City, their families are gearing up to run for the post of senator. And Lao Du's youngest son, Sebastian, is even more ambitious, and is even preparing for the 2028 presidential election!
If the three of Lao Du's father and son can be among the senators, plus a Sarah who is the vice president, then the Duterte family's lineup in Philippine politics is already quite luxurious, and it seems that it can compete with the Marcos family.
And the vice president's Sarah is a little more low-key. Recently, Sarah said that her mother advised her to return to Davao and run for mayor. Although Sarah has resigned from all her positions in Marcos' cabinet, she will need to resign as vice president if she wants to run for mayor, so she can carefully cultivate the base of Davao City.
On the whole, Lao Du's family is still very powerful. However, after all, his three children are still too young, have little political experience, and have not yet escaped the shadow of their parents, and their basic market is still limited to one acre and three points of land in Davao City. If you want to compete with the Marcos family, the situation is not promising.
Some time ago, Lao Du's youngest son, Sebastian, followed Lao Du's example and relaunched an anti-drug operation in Davao City, but Marcos Jr. would not give him this opportunity. As a result, his carefully prepared anti-drug operation was stopped by the Philippine National Police, and even several of the Duterte family's henchmen in the Davao City police system were suspended. This hit Lao Du's family hard.
It can be seen that the Marcos family has deep roots and still has many relatives in high positions, which poses a major challenge to Lao Du. Moreover, Marcos Jr. is also obviously more sophisticated than Lao Du's children and more familiar with the doorways of Philippine politics.
Since the beginning of this year, Marcos and his cousin, Martin Romualdez, who is president of the House of Representatives, want to continue to pursue the constitutional amendment issue that has been put on hold for a year. Marcos said amending the constitution would help ease domestic business regulations and attract foreign investors. However, his main purpose may be to revise the content of "the president will serve a six-year term without re-election".
To this end, Duterte immediately launched an "anti-constitutional amendment" campaign, and even threatened that if Marcos continued to implement the constitutional amendment plan, the Mindanao region would seek independence. Because, once Marcos Jr. successfully amends the constitution, it will pave the way for him to be re-elected president, and the status of the Lao Du family will be even more precarious in the future!
However, with the strength of the Lao Du family, Marcos Jr. is unlikely to succeed easily. Moreover, once the Du family can enter the Senate, the political influence of the Duterte family will come to a very considerable high position. At that time, Marcos Jr. will have to weigh his own weight if he wants to continue to suppress the pro-China faction represented by Lao Du.
Surprisingly, after the recent bitter dispute between China and the Philippines over Second Thomas Shoal, the Marcos Jr. government has softened its tone. At that time, the Philippine media openly hyped up that the Philippine side had "seven people injured, one finger broken, eight shots captured, and one boat damaged", and the losses were extremely heavy. Brawner, chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, even openly demanded that the Chinese side must return the firearms of the confiscated Filipino personnel and make compensation according to the actual situation.
It is obviously impossible for the Chinese side to accede to such an unreasonable demand. Surprisingly, the Marcos administration has changed its normal and begun to become empathetic. Recently, when the Philippine side submitted an application to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf on issues related to the continental shelf in the South China Sea, it made it clear that although the Philippine side very much hopes that the United Nations will approve the application submitted by the Philippines, the Philippine side is also willing to discuss the delimitation of maritime borders with countries in the region. Obviously, this is a gesture of negotiation with the Chinese side.
The most surprising thing is that Lucas Besavin, civil secretary of the Philippine Presidential Office, went so far as to say that the confrontation between China and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao a few days ago may have been just a "misunderstanding or accident" and that the Philippines would not consider initiating the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" on this matter. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos also made it clear in a public speech to the Philippine military that the Philippines will not provoke a war and will always strive to resolve disputes by peaceful means.
Some people say that this may indicate that the Marcos administration seems to have recognized the reality and knows that it is doomed to have no way out by constantly provoking China on the South China Sea issue. In fact, he recognized the United States at this time, and it is absolutely impossible for the White House to go to war for the Philippines and China! And if Sino-Philippine relations ease, it will be beneficial for Lao Du's family, after all, Lao Du has always pursued a pro-China policy. I hope that Lao Du's family can succeed in the midterm election center!