Continued from above......
Eighth pick: Spurs
Nikolai Topic
For the Spurs, as long as they don't opt for a package pick-up trade, then basically Nikola Topic is not running. The only consideration is his previous injury history. A Serbian athlete, Topeic is the most anticipated national team defender after Teodosic, having previously played for Red Star Belgrade.
With a height of 198 on the back line, coupled with a fairly quick first step to break through, and soft penalty area finishing skills, he is almost the best ball handler in this rookie, with rich rhythm changes and a reading of the running space on the court, whether it is a half-court block or a full-court counterattack, he can find a scoring opportunity in the first place. Although his passing ability still needs to be polished, the control and playmaking ability he has shown so far can put him in the first gear of this rookie's ball-control offensive ranks.
However, based on past injuries, Topeic eventually fell from the first three picks to the eighth, and even before the draft results were announced, there was a downward trend. There is a precedent for knee injuries, and the partial tear of the cruciate ligament was announced directly in the international draft test in May, although not serious enough to undergo surgery, but it still has a big impact on his draft prospects.
In addition to injuries, defensive ability is also a big factor affecting Topic. Before the injury, his lateral speed was not very good, and even if he returned healthy, it would have a more or less impact. At least for now, it may be difficult for him to play above the league's level of defense, especially against most of the league's star guards, and may even become a key target for opponents.
Another point is that although he has shown some ability to organize and initiate offense at present, he is limited by his unremarkable perimeter projection, which will inevitably have a compressed impact on the offensive space in today's league. In the past few seasons, his highest three-point shooting percentage has only reached about 30%, and whether he can avoid becoming a laggard on the offensive end of the team is what the coaching team needs to focus on.
Considering the follow-up, perhaps the only person who can influence the Spurs' selection of Topic with the eighth pick is Tijani Salon. According to reports, the Spurs are quite interested in Salon, and it just so happens that Saron and Wembanyama belong to the same agency, and Saron was once the biggest favorite for the Spurs in the eighth pick in the simulated draft predictions of many media.
It's just that considering the team's condition and the characteristics of the players, what the Spurs need most at the moment is to play a playmaker, and after getting Wembanyama, they also have enough time to wait for the new talent to develop, and at present, Topic is the most likely choice for the Spurs with the eighth pick.
Ninth pick: Grizzlies
Donovan-Klingen
The Grizzlies acquired Morant in the 2019 draft, and then the team entered the playoffs, and at one point rushed to the top two positions in the West.
But the reality is that Morant was previously banned for off-court armed turmoil, and after finally returning, he was reimbursed for the injury season after only nine games, plus other core players have also entered the injury list, and the Grizzlies had no choice but to give up this season, and finally got the worst record of 27-55 since 2017.
If you look at the team's healthy roster, the Grizzlies are still very competitive in the West, and as long as they can be fully healthy, the playoffs are not too difficult for them. Therefore, for the ninth pick in their hands, the most suitable one is the newcomer to combat power.
Given the lineup, what they are lacking at the moment is a perimeter shooter or a center who can replace Adams, with Jaren Jackson Jr. returning to his favourite No.4 if he can get a quality No.5 spot.
It was previously reported that the Grizzlies wanted to complete a draft trade with the Rockets and select Donovan Klingen with the third pick. An excellent center from Connie Cut, Klingen has all the ingredients to be an instant player. He is a key player for Conniecut University to complete back-to-back championships this year, with an arm span of 230 and a height of 220, and an average of 2.5 blocks per game, which is enough to be the best interior basket protector in the NCAA.
In addition, although he is a large center, Klingen is not a slow-moving interior lineman, although his movement speed is not at the top level, but he can quickly find opportunities when blocking and dismantling, and can immediately return to his defensive position after the defense is extended, which is a bit similar to Gobert, and has the opportunity to become a qualified interior defensive gate. Defensively, Klingen is an excellent rebounder, averaging 7.4 rebounds per game in his sophomore season, although it may not seem like a top statistic, but his keen sense of rebounding is unquestionable, and he has every chance to improve into the league's next generation of double-double machines in the future.
However, like most big centers, Klingen still has problems with lateral speed and poor perimeter defense, which can make him a key target on the perimeter. Especially when encountering scorers like Harden and Doncic who are good at using the rhythm to play, Klingen's perimeter defensive shortcomings are obvious.
Then there's the free throws, Klingen's best free throw percentage in college is 58.3 percent, which is absolutely unacceptable for an NBA player, and considering the offensive range that is completely confined to the inside box, and the Grizzlies' desire to find shooters to open up space, Klingen will still drag down the team's offense to some extent. Despite this, his ability can still bring enough reliable pick-and-roll cover quality to the Grizzlies, completely liberate Morant's impact after the pick-and-roll, and at the same time relieve the defensive pressure on Jaren Jackson Jr. in the restricted area.
10th pick: Jazz
Ron Holland
Based on what we've said about the Jazz, they don't seem to have found a way to rebuild in recent seasons. Or maybe they've been in a semi-rebuilding state, hovering between 30-40 wins for two consecutive seasons, which is neither enough to qualify for the playoffs nor bad enough to be a novice pick.
It can be seen that the Jazz management is still in the stage of roster restructuring, and the current goal is still to clean up the team's assets, and then exchange them for future draft picks or get some young potential that fits the team's rebuilding timeline. Just looking at the current roster, Clarkson's declining contract has made him a hot trade target this offseason, and the 25-year-old Sexton is currently unable to explicitly include him in the Jazz's future blueprint, the only thing that is certain is that the contract will be tied to him until 2026. More importantly, Markkanen, who has been an All-Star in the past two seasons, will sign a contract extension with the Jazz this summer.
Combined with the average of 24 points and 8 rebounds per game in the past two seasons, Markkanen's annual salary requirements for a new contract should not be less than 27 million, and if the Jazz are unwilling, then he will most likely consider entering the free agent market next year to seek a larger contract.
But at present, he is not a long-term partner that the Jazz are seeking, and is more inclined to a support role, and the ceiling may be a top second-in-command; Whether or not the Jazz will put Markkanen on the trade shelf this offseason is something to be discussed, but what is certain is that the Jazz are still waiting to be able to truly build around the absolute core of the team. Therefore, the Jazz, who hold the 10th pick, should still focus on potential rookie players with high ceilings in this pick, and as the No. 1 high school player in the United States last year, Ron Holland seems to be more qualified for the Jazz.
With a height of 201 and an arm span of 210, Holland has the basic conditions to become an explosive wing player, quite excellent first step explosiveness, can use his size and breakthrough speed to cause direct damage to the opponent's penalty area defense when attacking in the half, and also shows a certain potential for independent dribbling offense and shooting. On the defensive end, he can quickly complete the change of defense and assist the defense, and the active game is a player that every team will like on the defensive end. More importantly, Holland is the youngest rookie in this draft, born in 2005, and he wasn't even 19 years old at the time of the draft, which is a key reason why he is regarded as the rookie with the highest ceiling ceiling in this draft.
As the top favorite a year ago, he finally fell all the way to the middle of the first round, and the main reason behind this is due to the wrong career planning. He gave up joining the University of Texas a year ago, choosing instead to join the G League. And it just so happens that the G League in the past year has been quite chaotic, the team has almost no qualified point guards, and the offensive performance is even more messy, which indirectly leads to Holland's past shortcomings being infinitely magnified. Although the five-star high school student scored a team-high score and the league's highest steal statistics during the G League, his extremely low offense is hardly excellent, let alone a -13.6 points per 100 possessions and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.03, which is equivalent to one turnover for every assist passed, which is the reason why Holland's draft pick continues to decline.
But fortunately, its own foundation is not bad, and the stable shooting action can continue to strengthen after entering the league. Especially considering that the Jazz currently have Clarkson, Sexton and others in the ball-handling position, and even Kiyont George, who was drafted last year, Holland rarely needs to take on too many ball-handling offensive main tasks in the Jazz, while also relieving Markkanen's defensive pressure. With the potential of an All-Star forward, the Jazz could indeed bet on the No. 1 high school player with the 10th pick.
Eleventh pick: Bulls
Tristan da Silva
After the team established the core rotation of Vucevic, DeRozan, and LaVine, the Bulls' best record was 46 wins in the 2021-22 season, and they were also eliminated by their opponents in the first round of the playoffs that year, and then they were never able to stand on the playoff floor.
The Bulls' unsatisfactory performance year after building the roster is largely due to the health of the players, and the ball brother has not been able to play for two consecutive seasons due to injury, which has disrupted all the plans of the Bulls; Although the young backcourt combination such as Koby White and Dosunm are gradually on the right track, they will have to face the question of whether LaVine is still willing to stay in Chicago, not to mention that the Bulls' main offensive point is now heavily dependent on two veteran players, DeRozan and Vucevic. For the current Bulls, they are faced with a choice, whether to completely tear down and rebuild, choose to sell back future draft assets while the Mesozoic players still have trade value, or continue to fight for playoff tickets with minor repairs.
Regardless, the Bulls have sent Caruso away, and the move looks determined to make some changes. Considering that the current roster has accumulated enough talent in the backcourt, the Bulls should focus on some forward players who can replace the veteran DeRozan in this pick. Considering that the team has the league's fourth-worst three-point shooting this season, and that White is almost the only one to do the primary outside scoring, the Bulls need a shooter who can shoot independently from the perimeter, as well as a 3-and-D wing that can add offensive flexibility.
Silva's decent perimeter projection and above-average defense may make up for DeRozan's position as a free-agent player. He shot 39.5 percent from three-point range in his senior season, and nearly ninety percent of those three-pointers were from the NBA's three-point line, proving that Silva has every chance of becoming a qualified three-point shooter when he enters the NBA. Silva, meanwhile, has proven himself to be a good perimeter defender in defence, which is the standard 3-and-D wing template.
But Silva also has problems, coming from his age. He played in Colorado for four years and turned 23 last month, and while there have been a number of older rookies who have made a name for themselves in the league in recent years, Silva's current ceiling is a qualified 3-and-D, and if the Bulls eventually choose to rebuild, it would be embarrassing for the team to keep a rookie who is already old and looks to be almost at the limit of his potential, which is what the Bulls must make before the draft. If they choose to play with their current roster for another year, then Silva is more than capable of helping the team, and it will be up to the Bulls to decide.
Twelfth pick: Thunder
Zach Eddie
The 2023-24 season was definitely a successful season for the Thunder, with the long rebuilding finally complete, and the Thunder also became the youngest team in NBA history to be the first team in the division this year, and the playoffs also went to the second round before losing 2-4 to the Mavericks, who finally entered the Finals. The core of the team, Alexander, has become the top star guard of the new generation, and Holmgren's rookie season performance is also amazing, not only making up for the Thunder's lack of interior basket protection, but also making him the team's most critical scoring option since Alexander.
But again, one of the most critical reasons for the Thunder's final semifinals was rebounding. In the regular season, he averaged only 8.8 frontcourt rebounds per game and a defensive rebounding rate of only 73.8%, both of which ranked second to last in the league. Holmgren is a decent rebounder, but his thin stature makes it difficult for him to get the job done in the interior box, let alone grab rebounds. Again, he's a good interior defender, but the Thunder need another big center to protect him and keep the game from overloading.
Here is the controversial Zach Eddie, as the best player in two colleges, and this year led Purdue University to the finals, such a player should not appear in the middle and late stages of the first round. Just considering that he almost participated in the draft last year, but most of the mock drafts were at the end of the second round, which shows that the overall depth and intensity of the draft roster this year is not as good as last year, and it can be seen that the NCAA and the NBA have different emphasis on different abilities of players.
But for the Thunder, Eddie might be a good choice. The ability to score in the penalty area comes not only from the height of 223, but also from the rather delicate footwork and finishing touch. While he wasn't much of a cover player during his time at Purdue, Eddie still had a chance to be a big part of Alexander's pick-and-roll offense with the Thunder, given his team role with the Canadian national team.
The most common problems with these tall centers are slow movement and lack of offensive options, and these problems also appear with Eddie. During the NCAA period, there were often scenes where opponents pulled him to the periphery to play singles, let alone the NBA. There is no doubt that his slow lateral movement speed will make him the number one target for defenders in all teams.
In addition, although he can provide a qualified level of screening, the offensive means after setting up the cover are too scarce, and he has no projection response ability outside the penalty area, and he may become a shortcoming on the offensive end, and even lead the opponent to directly choose to pack the ball, which invisibly increases the pressure on the team's offensive end. These are all questions that the Thunder or other teams must consider when selecting Eddie. Especially in the modern basketball system, the center needs to have more offensive means to be able to eat, and even as the best college player in the country, Eddie's draft market can basically only fall to the middle and late stages of the first round.
Thirteenth in line: King
Giakoby Walter
For the Kings, they are more okay, and the scene of entering the playoffs after more than a decade seems to be just yesterday, and they were expected to successfully complete the rebuild, but this season's record has not soared as expected. The 46-win record is only two games less than the year before, but it has put them to the test of the play-offs. And the Kings didn't take the opportunity, even if Williamson was absent, they still couldn't get past the Pelicans, counting the play-offs, facing the Pelicans five in a row in a single season, which is really a curse.
After keeping Monk for four years and 78 million, the Kings basically retained the core team of Fox, Xiaosa, and Monk, but unlike the league's No. 1 offensive team that dominated the league the year before last, the Kings' average points per game this season dropped from 120.7 points to 116.6 points. This also caused the Kings' offense to drop significantly. Although the defensive end has improved greatly compared to the previous year, Xiao Sa's ability to protect the basket in the penalty area is still a big problem, and it is also a problem that they must solve in the future to establish a new defensive system.
In this range, the Kings need more people who can help Xiao Sa protect the basket, or players who provide outside firepower, and separately, Zach Eddie or Silva are both qualified candidates, so if these two draft picks fall a little behind, the Kings will most likely consider selecting them. But with the two of them already drafted in the above simulation, the Kings will have to reconsider their selection, and we are offering a nominee of Giakoby Walter, a shooting guard, but only before that option, the premise is that the Kings will try to trade Kevin Huerter or Barnes.
Jacoby Walter is a standard No. 2 player who has a quick shot that is not easily blocked by defenders, and will use himself as a cover or run to get a reasonable shot when he is off the ball, and he is clear enough to judge whether to receive or cut without the ball. At the same time, Jacoby Walter's 208 reach gives him the foundation to become a talented defender, capable of causing great shooting interference when on the opponent, even when defending off the ball, accurate passing path judgment and the ability to direct the team's defense, which is his biggest plus for both offense and defense.
For such a player who has both offense and defense, the reason why he will appear in the middle and late stages of the first round is that the most direct problem is his ceiling. Jacoby Walter looks almost impossible to become an NBA-caliber ball-handling offensive player at the moment, so the team that picks him will need ball-handling teammates to maximize his off-ball threat on the offensive end, which seriously reduces his draft prospects. In addition, Walter's dynamic movement conditions other than his arm span are not outstanding in other aspects, whether it is bounce or running speed is not the level of the top half of this draft, and the lack of sufficient confrontation power directly affects his efficiency after challenging defenders in the restricted area.
Just considering that the Kings don't need Jacoby Walter to do much at this stage to be able to provide firepower from the perimeter and help ease the pressure on the defensive end, that's enough.
Fourteenth pick: Trailblazers
Tijani Salon
For the Trail Blazers, who have just begun to rebuild, they already have Simmons Jr., Sharpe, Henderson and other guards in the lineup, and there is a high probability that they will not continue to select guard players in the future. Therefore, they will most likely choose a striker or center player in this position. Tijani Salon, mentioned above, is in good contact with the Spurs, and if the Spurs don't pick Topeic with the eighth pick, Saron is the obvious choice. Similarly, if the Trail Blazers hadn't picked Saron with the seventh pick, the 14th pick would never have been missed.
Salon, who played in Ligue 1 last season, has a height and reach that allows him to juggle the number three or four. In terms of shooting percentage, it is not a shooter, but considering that his shooting movements, timing and way of holding the ball are quite smooth, he has the potential to shoot in the future. His nose for air cuts and the ability to handle the ball when switching to fast breaks are his selling points, and he also has some experience as a ball-handler who can handle everything on the offensive end, and is considered a half-sided player. Compared to the offensive part, Sarlon's defensive awareness and judgment have improved a lot in the past year or two, and his lateral movement speed is good, which gives him the potential to be a perimeter defender above the limit.
In terms of shortcomings, Saron at this stage is relatively much lower than the rookies in the same period, his confrontation core is not stable enough, the penalty area confrontation is obviously at a loss, and the defense is often deceived by the opponent's dribbling feints, and then loses the defensive position and is easily scored by the opponent. Although it can be considered a high ceiling, no one knows the distance between him and the qualified wing.
But in the case of the Trail Blazers, this is not a big deal, and they already need enough time to figure out the future of the team, and even before that, they need to consider whether the future plans of many players in the team fit into the team's timeline. In this area, Saron has plenty of time to show himself and the team can slowly get to the bottom of it, which is a good choice for both teams that need wing talent and newcomers who need a lot of playing time.