Before Modi officially set off for Russia, Putin did not forget China as a good partner. As for the border issue between China and India, the Russian side has always been watching. This time, the Russian side wants to take the lead and be a talker.
Modi meets with Putin
Recently, Russian presidential aide Ushakov confirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is about to pay a state visit to Russia. According to the Russian side, the planned visit of the Indian side will last for a total of two days.
For Modi's visit, the Indian media is also very concerned. According to Indian media, Modi's visit is of great significance, as it will be a visit independent of the annual summit between the two heads of state. During the visit, Modi will further emphasize cooperation between Russia and India.
For both Russia and India, Modi's visit is of extraordinary significance after his successful victory. First, against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Modi's visit sent a clear signal to the international community that India is willing to maintain its traditional friendly relations with Russia and is not entirely affected by Western sanctions against Russia.
Second, although the bilateral relationship between India and Russia has undergone many changes in recent years, the finalization of Modi's visit is undoubtedly an emphasis on the long-term strategic partnership between the two countries. During the visit, the two sides are likely to continue to deepen cooperation in areas such as energy, defense, trade and technology, which are of vital importance to both countries in the current complex international situation.
In addition, given the current situation of India's large import of oil from Russia in the past two years, Modi's visit may also be aimed at ensuring the stability of energy supply, especially in the face of volatility in the global energy market caused by Western sanctions, India may use this opportunity to negotiate more favorable energy trading conditions.
Of course, this visit may also attract the attention of the United States and its allies, and in the context of the continued sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, Modi's visit may bring some variables, while bringing more respite to Russia, it may also have a profound impact on the pattern of international relations.
Modi meets with Biden
However, before Modi's visit to Russia, Russia did not forget its other partner, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned at an event that Russia has plans to convene China, India, and Russia to hold a three-part meeting. Lavrov pointed out that in the past two years, the joint work of China, India and Russia has stagnated, first because of the new crown epidemic, and then because of the Sino-Indian border issue.
Lavrov mentioned that the Russian side believes that it would be more useful for the three countries to actively talk to each other at such a tense moment. Previously, the "BRICS" group also came from the trilateral talks between China, India and Russia. Therefore, once the trilateral meeting resumes, China, India, and Russia will all benefit from it, while the West has been trying to sabotage the process.
It is not difficult to see from the Russian side's statement that the Russian side is very concerned about the resumption of the "three carriages" between China, India and Russia, and wants to take the opportunity of actively promoting the tripartite meeting to help the two partner countries handle the border issue well and build a "common alliance" so as to join hands to confront the United States and the West.
But in fact, China and India do not need this "alliance" very much. In the final analysis, it is mainly Russia that the United States and the West have vigorously sanctioned, but the United States and the West have not completely given up on cooperation with China and India, and are even actively pursuing it.
China-India-Russia Foreign Ministers' Meeting
It is worth noting that this is not the first time that the Russian side has mentioned the "three carriages", which is a visual expression of the cooperation mechanism between China, India and Russia, and is usually used to describe the strengthening of cooperation, coordination of positions and promotion of common interests of the three countries under a multilateral framework.
Specifically, the "troika" concept emphasizes the potential synergies between the three countries as important regional and global powers in the political, economic, and security fields. In practice, the "troika" mechanism is embodied in regular ministerial meetings, such as meetings at the level of foreign ministers, to discuss international and regional issues of common concern, promote mutual trust, and explore opportunities for cooperation.
However, since the 18th China-India-Russia Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in 2021, this agenda has not been restarted. According to the order, the next foreign ministers' meeting should be hosted by the Chinese side, but the Chinese side has not moved. Last year, Lavrov also said that the "three carriages" of China, India and Russia will continue to operate. To this end, the Russian side will actively promote the holding of a ministerial meeting among the three countries, but so far, there is no rumor that this meeting will be restarted.
The reason for this, the border issue mentioned by Lavrov, is an important clue. In recent years, the Indian side has repeatedly carried out provocations in the border areas in defiance of China's warnings, and similar actions have become even more frequent this year, and Modi even went to southern Tibet to participate in the "ribbon-cutting ceremony" of the Indian project in person despite China's warnings.
Modi attends the ribbon-cutting ceremony
Under these circumstances, it is clear that the Indian side has not shown sincerity in the meeting, and it is reasonable for the Chinese side to put this agenda on hold. To put it bluntly, the reason why the China-India-Russia ministerial meeting has stalled is, in the final analysis, India's problem.
In fact, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and the West have been committed to imposing sanctions on Russia's energy exports, and at this time, Putin has vigorously launched the "Look East" policy, and instead doubled the export of oil, natural gas and other energy to China and India, while breaking through the blockade of the United States and the West, achieving a win-win situation.
Last month, India and China were the biggest buyers of Russian fuel oil, according to the latest data. Therefore, Russia does not want to lose either of these two markets, so it wants to mediate Sino-Indian relations.
However, China has stressed its position on the China-India border issue on more than one occasion and is willing to resolve it peacefully.
It is worth noting that, judging from the recent actions of the Indian side, Modi obviously has other careful thoughts, and while maintaining relations with Russia, he also accepts the "olive branch" handed by the West. Not long ago, the fact that Modi attended the G7 summit in the "C position" is a prime example. At this juncture, if Russia wants to act as a "talker" between China and India, the first thing it needs to do is to help the Modi government set a correct attitude.