The non-farm payrolls data in the United States has always been questioned as "water injection", but I didn't expect a recent report to directly unveil this "fig leaf". A report released in June by the California Office of Legislative Analysis showed that there was essentially no net job growth in the U.S. in 2023. This means that the boom in the job market, which the United States has been boasting about before, may be just a "feast" of data fraud.
The U.S. economy has long been in the red, with slowing GDP growth and sluggish manufacturing, but the data on the job market has been suspiciously bright. Last year, the Philadelphia Fed said that the U.S. non-farm payrolls data may have overestimated 800,000 people. In the run-up to the election, it seems that the U.S. government needs a pretty jobs data even more to whitewash the peace.
No amount of beautiful data can hide the harsh reality of stagflation. High prices and a stagnant economy are the real situation facing the United States today. If the economic downturn continues, the United States is likely to fall into a recession next year. And once the "emperor's new clothes" of data are exposed, the global financial market may not be spared.
The Fed's rate cut expectations have been closely linked to the non-farm payrolls data. But if the data itself is "water-injected", then can the Fed's decision-making still be trusted? Where do investors go from here?
Data falsification may create a temporary illusion of prosperity, but it cannot hide the real economic woes. Instead of dwelling in the numbers game, it is better to face reality and take concrete action to deal with the crisis. Only in this way will the US economy be able to get out of the quagmire and regain its former glory.