In July, it regained its footing at 3,000 points

Xue Hongyan

2024-06-28 17:30Vice President of Xingtu Financial Research Institute Vice President of Xingtu Financial Research Institute

Today, the market closed in the red, and the trading volume also increased. The full-day turnover of the two cities was 703.3 billion yuan, an increase of 77 billion yuan from yesterday.

At the sector level, it was mixed. National defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, communications, public utilities, electronics, etc. closed up, one hand defense, one hand growth; Securities, liquor, batteries, real estate chains, pharmaceutical businesses, etc., all have fundamental flaws.

Today is the last trading day at the end of the quarter, and it is also the last day for fund managers to rebalance their positions for the semi-annual report. In today's divergent market, the rise and fall of the sector may reflect the choice of fund managers to a certain extent, which has a certain signal significance.

In terms of the sectors that led the decline, 1) the sudden decline of the securities sector began with a small essay on fee reduction, indicating the deterioration of fundamentals; 2) The decline of the real estate chain may be due to the phased exhaustion of the real estate policy, and the lack of market confidence; 3) The decline of pharmaceutical business is a continuation of the logic of price comparison of pharmacies, and the transparency of drug prices poses a major uncertainty to pharmacies; 4) The liquor sector continued to fall, showing that Moutai's behavior of controlling volume and raising prices was not recognized by funds; ……

As for the leading sectors, 1) the short-term bearishness of the national defense industry has been exhausted, and the medium and long-term prospects are good, entering the bottom-buying window; 2) Electronics is the sector that rose first in June, with the dual blessing of consumer electronics fundamentals and AI themes, and there is a high probability of becoming the main line of a new round of growth; 3) The resource and energy sector is defensive and may benefit from the support of bailout funds, and its sustainability is doubtful; ……

Looking at the broader market, today's rally capped off June, with all major indices recording declines in June. As for the July market, it remains to be seen, but considering the three meetings held in the middle of the month, the theme market driven by the conference is worth looking forward to, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange should be a high probability event to regain 3,000 points.

In short, don't guess the bottom and don't predict a reversal. Based on the medium- and long-term perspective, patiently hold excellent companies, and the ups and downs have nothing to do with us.

In terms of today's market, as of the close, Wind All A rose 0.43%; CSI A50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 rose by 0.08%, 0.22%, 0.3%, 0.66% and 0.75% respectively.

At the industry level, national defense and military industry (3.2%), petroleum and petrochemical (2.21%), non-ferrous metals, communications, and public utilities led the rise, with an increase of more than 2 percentage points; Non-bank finance (-1.5%), food and beverage, and real estate fell significantly, all by more than 1 percentage point.

Today's turnover in the two cities was 703.3 billion yuan, an increase of 77 billion yuan from yesterday.

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Personal opinion, for reference only