Before Modi's official visit to Russia, Putin preemptively made a strategic layout and tried to take the lead in leading the dialogue between China and India, and the border situation is crucial.
Hello everyone, I'm Xinchun. Recently, Russian presidential assistant Ushakov revealed to the outside world that Indian Prime Minister Modi will make his first official visit to Russia after his re-election on July 8, and the specific visit itinerary is still in the planning stage. On the one hand, because Modi did not attend the SCO summit in Kazakhstan, which is equivalent to directly releasing Russian President Putin's dove, so Modi needs to make up for the impact of his "absence" by visiting Russia. On the other hand, because Modi's visit to Russia is the first in his third term as prime minister, and Putin has successfully completed his re-election plan this year, it is not surprising that the annual summit of Russian and Indian leaders will have a great impact on the situation in the entire Indo-Pacific region. It is worth mentioning that Modi's visit to Russia is scheduled for two days, not one day as emphasized by the Indian media, which shows in a sense that Modi still attaches more importance to the development of Russian-Indian relations, and the two countries still maintain stable cooperative relations.
As we all know, Russia has been India's main partner for a long time, and the two sides have close cooperation not only politically and economically, but also in the military sphere. According to incomplete statistics, for a long time in the past, the proportion of Russian-made weapons and equipment in the Indian army has always remained above 80 percent, and even if a large number of weapons and equipment from the United States and Western countries are pouring into the Indian army, the proportion of Russian-made weapons still reaches more than 50 percent, which is enough to show Russia's military influence on India. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict in 2022, in the face of comprehensive encirclement and suppression by the United States and Western countries, Russia's exports were completely blocked. Against this backdrop, India has become one of Russia's few trading partners in the world, and in addition to continuing to purchase Russian-made weapons and equipment on a large scale, India has also become a major exporter of Russian energy such as oil and gas. In the eyes of the outside world, this is a win-win cooperation, with much less pressure on Russia's exports and India's access to a stable supply of cheap energy.
However, just as Modi was about to embark on a visit to Russia, Russia took the lead in launching a strategic layout. A few days ago, when attending the event, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the current relations between China, Russia and India, and said that there are two reasons for the current stagnation of the work of the three countries: First, the continued impact of the new crown epidemic. Second, there is the issue of contradictions on the Sino-Indian border. In order to solve this problem, China, Russia and India should have a meeting and exchange. Judging by the current situation, Lavrov's proposal does have merit. China, Russia, and India, as the major powers in the Indo-Pacific region, have played a vital role in regional peace and stability. If there are obvious differences and disputes between the three countries on certain issues, it will not only be detrimental to exchanges and dialogues between them, but will also create a "suitable" opportunity for external forces to intervene. Russia has close cooperative relations with both China and India, and after the implementation of the "Look East" strategy, Russia has further strengthened its commodity exports to the Indo-Pacific region and gained greater market space.
As far as Russia is concerned, if China and India can live in harmony, then Russia will be the biggest beneficiary. It can not only ensure the rapid development of the economy, but also rely on the influence and presence of China and India to resist the encirclement and suppression of the United States and Western countries. Therefore, in Russia's strategic layout, China and India can have certain differences and contradictions, but these contradictions and differences must not become the key factors affecting the development of Sino-Indian relations. Because once China and India start confrontation and conflict, then the United States can logically support India and accelerate the implementation of the "Indo-Pacific strategy", then not only China will fall into the encirclement established by the United States, but Russia's Far East development plan will also end in failure because of the encirclement by the United States. Therefore, Russia hopes that the Sino-Indian border issue will be properly handled.
However, Lavrov should be clear that the Sino-Indian border issue cannot be completely resolved just because of a meeting and exchange. At present, China and India have launched the 21st round of military commander-level talks, and India has always maintained a tough posture in a vain attempt to force China to make compromises and concessions, but on the issue of territorial sovereignty, China's attitude and position have been very clear, and Russia, instead of preparing for the trilateral meeting, should devote its energy to persuading India to make Modi give up those unrealistic and wrong ideas.