Russia's relations with NATO have been tense since the end of the Cold War, but the current situation has clearly reached an unprecedented peak. Recently, nearly 500,000 NATO allied troops have surrounded Russia, which is a disturbing picture, and NATO's military encirclement has become a grim reality that Russia cannot ignore. At the same time, the Russian media's renaming of the "special military operation" indicates that the Russian army is now under tremendous pressure.
Since Russia announced its special military operation against Ukraine in 2022, the goals and tactics of the conflict have been changing. Initially, Russia's goal was to denazify and demilitarize, intending to free Ukraine from the shackles of Nazis and Nazi ideology, while weakening its military power and making it a neutral state. However, over time, the official purpose of this operation was redefined as "defending Donbass" and protecting those who were bullied by the Kyiv regime.
This change in rhetoric means that Russia's strategic focus appears to have narrowed to the Donbas region, and the ambitious goal of comprehensively stopping NATO's eastward expansion and eliminating Ukraine's military power is no longer visible. So why is Russia making this adjustment? The answer lies in a new round of military assistance from NATO and the United States.
The United States recently passed an external military support bill totaling $95 billion, of which $61 billion will be used to aid Ukraine. Whether or not all these funds are in place, it will be timely for Ukraine. In addition, the United States and European countries have lifted restrictions on the use of support weapons in Ukraine, allowing Ukraine to use a variety of cruise missiles and "Hymars" rocket artillery to strike the Russian mainland. Such assistance strengthens Ukraine's military capabilities, allowing it to strike more effectively against important targets inside Russia.
In addition, NATO not only encircles Russia on land and at sea, but also plans to deploy more than 900 fifth-generation stealth fighters in Eastern European countries in the coming years. Such a deployment will put enormous pressure on Russia's air defense system, further exacerbating its military dilemma. The current situation has forced Russia to carry out a large-scale military mobilization and strategic deployment to counter the threat from NATO.
At present, NATO's military operations are not limited to geographical encirclement, and its precision-guided weapons and tactical nuclear weapons can launch a lethal strike at Russia mainland and even Moscow at any time. This ultra-high-pressure military threat has left Russia facing the most serious security challenge since World War II.
According to Russia's character, of course, it will not sit idly by in the face of such a military threat, and a senior official of the Russian Ministry of Defense bluntly said that NATO's various actions are no different from provoking a war, and if it really comes to the step of "starting a war", Russia should not be blamed for counterattacking with nuclear weapons.
This is obviously not a joke, if Russia is forced to that point, this kind of "common end" style of play Russia will indeed do it, and then Russia will use its territorial advantages to carry out internal operations and quickly create strategic divisions in the NATO alliance. It is predictable that Russia's nuclear forces may prioritize attacks on NATO front-line forces deployed in Eastern Europe, and whether NATO chooses to carry out a nuclear counterattack in the same way is difficult to predict.
In the event of a war between NATO and Russia, the global economic system will be severely impacted. Energy prices could soar, supply chains rupend, and financial markets are volatile. For Europe in particular, its energy dependence on Russia will hit its economy hard due to the disruption of energy supplies caused by the war.
In addition, the massive refugee flows triggered by the war will also become a major humanitarian crisis for all countries. The lessons of history show that wars are always accompanied by the displacement of civilians. The massive influx of refugees into neighbouring countries will have far-reaching social, economic and security implications for those countries. At the same time, a war could lead to other countries in the region, such as Poland and Belarus, becoming more involved in conflict, and a wider global war could spiral out of control.
Moreover, a direct conflict between NATO and Russia could lead to a significantly increased risk of the use of nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union avoided direct military confrontation with each other, because if nuclear weapons were used, the consequences would be irreversible global disasters. In today's uncertain international environment, a possible miscalculation or overreaction by either side could lead to devastating consequences, and I believe that no country will want to go this far!