In May 2017, the local media "Bangkok Post" reported a news that shook military circles: the Royal Thai Navy announced that it had signed a contract with China for the purchase of submarines worth 13.5 billion baht! This is undoubtedly an important milestone in the history of military cooperation between China and Thailand. Who would have thought that only 7 years later, the submarine was abruptly canceled by the Thai side.
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In the face of this surprising decision, there are many opinions in the outside world: Is Thailand playing tricks on China? Or is there something else going on? Some experts said that although it was ostensibly due to engine supply problems, the real reason for Thailand may not be so simple. How did Thailand decide to part with this costly deal? And how will China respond to this major blow? More importantly, what kind of hidden dangers will this forced order bury for future military cooperation between the two sides?
Let's unravel the mystery of this twisty story and find out why.
Thailand's helpless choice under the pressure of "filling the gap".
Looking back at the causes and consequences of the submarine procurement agreement reached between China and Thailand in 2017, it is not difficult to see that there are some deeper strategic considerations.
As an important country in Southeast Asia, Thailand has long attached importance to the building of naval forces. However, compared with neighboring countries, the combat power of the Thai Navy has always been relatively weak. Taking submarine equipment as an example, Thailand only has a few old submarines left over from World War II, while other countries such as India, Singapore, Malaysia and other countries have introduced more advanced conventionally powered submarines. This is undoubtedly a big blow to the deterrence and combat effectiveness of the Thai Navy.
It can be said that this dilemma of "backward equipment" has always existed within the Thai Navy, and with the continuous escalation of the armed forces of neighboring countries, Thailand's sense of crisis has become more and more intense. This has forced Thailand to seek external support to fill the gap.
In the international arms market at that time, China was undoubtedly the best choice for Thailand to be able to provide submarines with relatively low prices and high technical level. Taking into account various factors, including price, performance, delivery time, etc., the Thai Navy finally decided to order one S-26T conventionally powered submarine from China, and intends to continue to purchase two more in the future.
This is undoubtedly a big deal. But for the Thai Navy at that time, even if it required a lot of financial resources, it had to force forward this plan. After all, in the context of the ever-changing international military landscape, maintaining a certain level of strategic deterrence is too important for Thailand's geostrategic position.
Unfortunately, this is not the end of the story. Just as the submarine was entering the middle and late stages of construction, a fatal change occurred: the German company suddenly announced that it would no longer supply China with the key diesel engines needed for this type of submarine. This undoubtedly greatly slowed down the entire construction progress and cast a shadow on the cooperation between the two sides.
So, is this a simple repudiation of the German company, or is there something else going on?
Shortage of funds + unfavorable geographical environment Thailand can hardly afford the "luxury" of submarines
A closer look at the ins and outs of this incident reveals that there may be some other unspeakable reasons behind the refusal of the German side to provide key engines.
The first is Thailand's own fiscal situation. As we all know, since 2020, the pandemic has had a huge impact on the Thai economy. Thailand, a major tourism country, has seen its revenues plummet during the pandemic, leading to a sharp drop in government revenues. In such a difficult economic environment, it is difficult for Thailand to afford even the previous commitment to purchase submarines.
Not only that, but from a geographical point of view, Thailand's sea conditions are not very suitable for the deployment and use of submarines. The waters around Thailand are mostly shallow, which adversely affects the range of activities and underwater secrecy of submarines. In other words, even if Thailand has advanced submarine equipment, its actual combat effectiveness will be greatly reduced.
It can be said that the superposition of these two factors has made the Thai Navy, which is already unable to make ends meet, even worse on its ability to pay for this order. In the internal and external environment of such tense
When the German company suddenly suspended the supply of engines, this undoubtedly gave Thailand a good "step" - using the German company's approach to prevaricate its own withdrawal, which could not only save face, but also get rid of the heavy burden that was difficult to bear.
It is precisely based on this consideration that the Thai Navy finally chose to "withdraw". Helpless, but also helpless.
China's new engine has become a key weight
However, just as Thailand was preparing to officially announce the cancellation of the order, the Chinese side seized the opportunity and proposed a new solution.
China said it was willing to replace the planned German-made engine with a self-developed CHD-620 diesel engine in order to facilitate the smooth progress of the cooperation project. In contrast, the performance of this domestic Chinese engine is not inferior, and the price is much more affordable. More importantly, the Chinese side promised to provide two retired submarines of the Chinese Navy as a replacement if the Thai side is still not at ease.
This proposal undoubtedly gave the Thai Navy a step down. On the one hand, it solves the engine problems that initially led to the blockage of cooperation; On the other hand, the goodwill and flexibility of the Chinese side have also made the Thai Navy feel the sincerity of the partners. In this case, the Thai Navy seems to be unable to escape the blame and forcibly terminate this cooperation.
In fact, after learning of China's response plan, the Thai Navy sent personnel to Pakistan to observe the actual operation of Chinese engines and expressed satisfaction with their performance. However, what is surprising is that after that, the Thai Navy suddenly changed its attitude and began to say that it would "temporarily shelve" this procurement plan. However, just as Thailand was preparing to officially announce the cancellation of the order, the Chinese side seized the opportunity and proposed a new solution.
China said it was willing to replace the planned German-made engine with a self-developed CHD-620 diesel engine in order to facilitate the smooth progress of the cooperation project. In contrast, the performance of this domestic Chinese engine is not inferior, and the price is much more affordable. More importantly, the Chinese side promised to provide two retired submarines of the Chinese Navy as a replacement if the Thai side is still not at ease.
This proposal undoubtedly gave the Thai Navy a step down. On the one hand, it solves the engine problems that initially led to the blockage of cooperation; On the other hand, the goodwill and flexibility of the Chinese side have also made the Thai Navy feel the sincerity of the partners. In this case, the Thai Navy seems to be unable to escape the blame and forcibly terminate this cooperation.
In fact, after learning of China's response plan, the Thai Navy sent personnel to Pakistan to observe the actual operation of Chinese engines and expressed satisfaction with their performance. However, what is surprising is that after that, the Thai Navy suddenly changed its attitude and began to say that it would "temporarily shelve" this procurement plan.
There are indications that the Thai government has other hidden considerations in making this decision.
The "political game" behind it
Carefully combing through the ins and outs of this incident, it is not difficult to find that the Thai side finally chose to cancel the submarine order not only due to economic and technical considerations. The deeper reason may also be related to Thailand's geopolitical aspirations.
We know that Thailand, as an important country in Southeast Asia, has been carefully balancing its relationship with the United States and China. Although it has maintained long-term good cooperation with China, Thailand also attaches great importance to strategic ties with the United States and other Western countries. It is precisely because of this delicate balance that Thailand tends to tend to make multi-party trade-offs when making some major military equipment procurement decisions.
And in this submarine order cancellation incident, it is not difficult for us to find the shadow of this geopolitical game. Some analysts have pointed out that Thailand may be worried that if it becomes too close to China, it will be difficult to rebalance its relationship with the United States in the future. Worse still, they believe that Thailand may be under some pressure from the United States to force itself to abandon this cooperation.
Even with all the favorable conditions offered by the Chinese side, these concessions do not seem to be of much use in the face of Thailand's strategic considerations of balancing the great power game. After all, for a small country that needs to tread carefully between the two powers, it is clearly not in its long-term interest to get too close to either side and risk offending the other.
Therefore, on the surface, the cancellation of this submarine order may be caused by technical and economic factors. But in fact, it is the complex geopolitical game behind it that is the root cause of Thailand's final decision.
How China can learn from this
To sum up, we can see that although Thailand ostensibly canceled the submarine procurement contract on the grounds of engine supply problems, there are more hidden geopolitical considerations behind it.
For China, this is undoubtedly a heavy blow. After all, this hugely expensive deal was supposed to be an important breakthrough in China's military diplomacy in Southeast Asia. Now, Thailand's abrupt "abandonment" of the treaty has not only caused economic losses to China's military enterprises, but also undermined China's influence in the region.
However, we should also note that this incident has also given China a good "reminder" that in the future process of military diplomacy, it is necessary to pay more attention to the complexity and uncertainty of things. It is obviously inappropriate to simply pursue immediate economic interests or the fruits of military cooperation while ignoring the geopolitical game behind them.
Therefore, in the future, China needs to more prudently and comprehensively assess the entire cooperation environment and make a response plan in advance. It is necessary not only to focus on the technical and economic aspects, but also to have a deeper understanding of the political aspirations and strategic tendencies of the countries concerned. Only in this way can we better cope with various uncertainties that may arise and safeguard our own interests to the greatest extent.
At the same time, in its military cooperation with other countries, China also needs to further enhance its ability to innovate independently in military technology. As this incident shows, once the supply of key components is encountered, it will seriously affect the process of cooperation. Therefore, improving the level of independent research and development and reducing dependence on external factors is undoubtedly a key issue that China needs to solve in the future.
In short, Thailand's cancellation of the submarine purchase order has undoubtedly taught China some painful lessons. It is hoped that China can learn from this experience and make its future military diplomacy more thorough and flexible. Only in this way can China better safeguard its strategic interests in the fierce geopolitical game.
#泰国取消中国潜艇订单: What is the way out after seven years of hard work?