The market in July is about to start, this year's stock market is very different from the market in previous years, this year there is a new "national nine" good, the new rules for delisting make the micro-cap stocks bearish, so that the trend of A shares has risen the index, and the general decline of individual stocks has become a common trend.
However, in July every year, there are major changes in the A-share market. Whether it was 2019 and 2020, or 2021 and 2022, the stock market in July either rose or fell sharply. In particular, this time there is a second quarter report coming, and there will be big fluctuations in July.
The reason for this is that many listed companies, after years of decline, have historically low valuations. The rise of the stock market in February this year is only a few sectors that have risen, and the market in July is expected to be expected without any change in structural opportunities.
Be prepared for tomorrow (July 1st), the stock market is likely to open sharply higher?
Peony believes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose sharply on Friday, that is, there are funds that want to make the stock market rise, and there are two news that show that many funds are buying the bottom.
News 1 is that in the first half of the year, the increase in equity ETFs exceeded 400 billion yuan, and when retail investors were waiting, the funds of equity ETFs increased too much, indicating that institutional investors were rushing to buy the bottom.
Among them, ETF funds such as CSI 300 and SSE 50 have bought more than 10 billion yuan, and many retail investors may not be able to look at investment indexes.
In particular, the scale of the CSI 300 ETF has increased by 50 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and the scale of the SSE 50 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF has also continued to increase.
Peony believes that there are such funds in the large-capitalization sector, the A-share Shanghai Index will not continue to fall, the support of 2900 points is already a low point, and it will not fall back to 2800 points.
News 2 is, don't look at the northbound funds that are selling in June, people are also buying high and selling low. Buy high-dividend sectors at the high level and sell hot topics at the low level.
This year, the view of northbound funds has changed, not to sell high and buy low, but to sell better and buy lower, but to sell better and fall more and better.
The reason for this is that the "National Nine Articles" make northbound funds more inclined to do value investment. After buying more than 80 billion yuan in the first half of the year, tens of billions of yuan were sold in June, and there are still nearly 39 billion yuan in the first half of the year.
Peony analyzed the northbound position, they reduced their positions in big consumption and medicine, but they increased their positions in big finance, especially in the banking sector, and northbound funds continued to increase their holdings. Electricity and precious metals, northbound funds are buying. No wonder A-shares are rising in these sectors.
It can be seen that if northbound funds begin to actively buy again in July, the high-dividend sector of A-shares can climb again, and the low point of the Shanghai Composite Index is at 2900 points.
From the analysis of news 1, there is no shortage of funds in the stock market, whether it is the funds of the market, and the funds invested by institutional investors through ETFs, the current stock market turnover is not to one trillion yuan, but the active funds are still increasing, and the trend of the Shanghai Index bottoming out is coming soon.
News 2 shows that if northbound funds begin to continue to buy, there will be no large-scale decline in A-shares.
Be prepared for tomorrow Monday, the stock market is likely to open sharply higher. Tomorrow is an important day, and there are funds in the market on Friday, and the stock market is likely to open sharply higher.
The article is a peony investment idea, it is not easy to be original, and the content does not constitute investment advice, for reference only!