China Fund News reporter Fang Li Cao Wenjing
The market ushered in another blockbuster document!
On June 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and other five departments issued the "Measures on Creating New Consumption Scenarios and Cultivating New Consumption Growth Points" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), requiring that around traditional consumption and service consumption such as food, clothing, housing and transportation, cultivate six new consumption scenarios such as catering, cultural tourism and sports, shopping, bulk commodities, health and elderly care, and communities, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points.
What is the guiding significance of the Measures? What are the implications for capital markets? Among them, what are the investment opportunities worth paying attention to? In this regard, a reporter from China Fund News interviewed six investment researchers from fund companies, namely:
Wang Shiyao, fund manager of the fourth equity investment department of Bosera Fund
Yongying Consumption Xinxuan Fund Manager Huang Yun
Yang Kun, fund manager of Sino Analytica
Rongtong Blue Chip Growth Fund Manager Guan Shan
Zhu Biying, assistant fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Guotai Fund
Wang Yiqin, assistant fund manager of Pengyang Fund Equity Investment Department
These investment researchers believe that the introduction of the "Measures" aims to expand domestic demand, promote consumption upgrading, meet the people's demand for a high-quality life, and also bring many opportunities to the capital market. The government has designated 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion" to promote the continuous expansion of consumption through a two-wheel drive of policies and activities. This provides a good environment for the development of the consumer market, and is optimistic about tourism, livestock and poultry meat products, consumption to go overseas and other fields.
Promoting consumption upgrading and pointing out the direction of policy support China Fund News: What is the guiding significance of the "Measures"? What are the implications for capital markets? Huang Yun: The issuance of the "Measures" has important guiding significance, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: promoting consumption upgrading, which is committed to promoting the improvement of consumption quality through innovative consumption scenarios to meet people's pursuit of a higher quality of life. Promote economic transformation, encourage scientific and technological innovation and the development of new business forms, promote the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, and enhance the endogenous growth momentum of the economy. Stimulate market vitality, cultivate new consumption growth points, and promote the prosperity and development of the consumer market. Optimize the consumption environment, improve the consumption environment, enhance the convenience of consumption, and improve consumer satisfaction and experience. Promote balanced regional development, promote balanced consumption between urban and rural areas, narrow the gap between regional development, and achieve common prosperity. Enhance international competitiveness, cultivate internationally competitive consumer brands and products, and enhance the country's soft power and international influence.
The impact on capital mainly lies in providing new investment opportunities for capital, especially in the fields of new consumption scenarios, new business formats, and new models. At the same time, we encourage technological innovation and product innovation, and pay attention to the investment direction of industrial upgrading.
Yang Kun: The policy is more about encouraging digital empowerment, developing according to local characteristics, improving the quality of supply, and revitalizing idle assets. From the perspective of competition, capital may be more likely to consider how to differentiate competition, such as product features, convenience and timeliness of services, and the creation of new demand, rather than homogeneously increasing production capacity. Guan Shan: The promulgation of the Measures aims to expand domestic demand, promote consumption upgrading, and meet the people's demand for a high-quality life. By cultivating new consumption scenarios, we can further expand domestic demand, promote economic growth, promote consumption quality and upgrading, and better meet the people's high-quality life. The promulgation of the Measures aims to deepen the supply-side structural reform, stimulate market vitality, promote the optimization of economic structure, and promote coordinated regional development.
The measures cover a number of areas, such as catering, cultural tourism, shopping, automobiles, home improvement, electronic products, etc., providing investors with new investment directions. Accelerated industry consolidation: Driven by policies, consolidation within the industry may accelerate, and dominant companies may expand their market share through mergers and acquisitions.
Wang Shiyao: This document points out the direction of policy support for innovation in the consumer sector, which is of guiding significance for capital investment in the consumer sector. New Scenarios of Catering Consumption: Chaining, Health, Convenience, and Digital Intelligence Become Trends China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of catering consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that it is necessary to develop catering consumption segments; Support the intelligent upgrade of catering consumption, etc. Which investment areas are worth paying attention to and have potential profit prospects? Huang Yun: In terms of cultivating new scenarios for catering consumption, several key points mentioned in the Measures provide investors with some areas worth paying attention to: first, the development of chain catering brands, encouraging the continuous development of large-scale chain restaurants, and encouraging large-scale chain catering enterprises to expand to the county market. The second is the intelligent upgrading of catering, promoting the digital transformation of catering business entities, and improving market analysis and customer acquisition capabilities. This includes investing in smart ordering systems, data analytics tools, customer relationship management (CRM) systems, and more.
The third is food safety and healthy catering, and encourage the acceleration of the formulation and improvement of relevant standards for the prefabricated food and dairy industries. Encourage the transparency of the catering process, and promote the independent disclosure system of the ingredients and production methods of the catering process. This provides an opportunity for the development of the prepared food industry as well as emerging catering brands.
Yang Kun: Among the measures to develop the subdivision of catering consumption, the first is the in-depth exploration of local specialties. China has a vast territory and many ethnic groups, each of which has its own unique food culture and characteristics, and many ingredients are only produced locally, with unique taste and nutritional value. In some places, the promotion of food needs to be strengthened, so as to drive local tourism and specialty sales. Guan Shan: Brand side: pay attention to the nationalization of local traditional cuisine, the growth of green organic catering and other characteristic tracks, as well as the current investment opportunities of large-scale chain restaurants in the direction of sinking to the county.
Supply chain: Focus on suppliers and outsourcers who support the digital and intelligent transformation of catering. Catering enterprises are expected to achieve efficient meal supply and improve marketing and operational efficiency through the construction of supply-side CNC platforms and intelligent analysis of user order data.
Multi-format integration: Encourage the integration of the catering industry with other industries such as cultural tourism, convention and exhibition, and research to develop new consumption scenarios and experiences.
Wang Shiyao: In terms of catering consumption, chaining, health, convenience and digital intelligence are the trends of industrial development, and with this policy support, we will continue to deepen the policy support and industrial investment in these directions, and create advanced supply conditions for consumption trends. New Scenarios of Cultural Tourism and Sports Consumption: Focus on Overseas and Peripheral Travel and Other Related OpportunitiesChina Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of cultural tourism and sports consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that the integration and innovation of tourism formats should be deepened; promote the quality and efficiency of urban and rural cultural tourism; improve the level of inbound tourism facilitation; expand the space for cultural and sports consumption. Among them, what are the investment opportunities worth paying attention to? Huang Yun: Areas worth paying attention to: integration and innovation of tourism formats, theme tourism boutique routes, digital empowerment of cultural tourism scenes, quality and efficiency improvement of urban and rural cultural tourism, facilitation of inbound tourism, expansion of cultural and sports consumption space, construction of sports parks and fitness venues, rural event activities, sports event brand activities, and cultural big data platform construction. In terms of investment, you can actively focus on relevant companies that can provide high-quality services and products. Wang Shiyao: Focus on the scenic spot through the improvement of software and hardware to further enhance the popularity and tourist reception capacity, such as typical ice and snow tourism destinations, by improving the transportation, accommodation and other supporting capabilities, as well as the enrichment and development of off-season tourism and other playability, to better tap the brand reputation of famous mountains and rivers and the sense of experience of tourists, on the basis of sustainable development to a greater extent to play a greater economic benefit.
In addition, the relevant departments have also done a lot of work in terms of inbound tourism, including visa-free access for tourists from many countries and the scope is still increasing, as well as preparations for ground access, etc., and the number of inbound tourists has increased significantly recently.
Yang Kun: To deepen the integration and innovation of the tourism industry, we can start from the promotion of high-quality theme tourism routes with distinctive characteristics. The tourism content includes humanities, geography and other aspects, which can be shaped according to local culture, location advantages and other factors, and the market prospect is broad. For example, in view of the abundant horse resources in the Mongolian steppe, a series of tourism products that combine local cultural exploration and natural adventure experience can be designed with "horse culture" as the core, so as to attract tourists with characteristic content.
To promote the quality and efficiency of urban and rural cultural tourism, it is necessary to pay special attention to the potential demand for leisure agriculture around large cities, increase investment in agricultural leisure tourism infrastructure, improve service facilities, and improve service quality.
In addition, to improve the convenience of inbound tourism, the convenience of foreigners should be improved.
New Scenarios of Shopping and Consumption: Pay Attention to New Technologies to Expand Consumption, "National Tide" Consumption, etc. China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of shopping consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that the diversified and integrated development of shopping consumption will be promoted; Leverage new technologies to expand the shopping experience; Cultivating the consumption of domestic "trendy products". Among the many new shopping and consumption scenarios, which areas have high growth potential? Huang Yun: In terms of cultivating new shopping and consumption scenarios, the Measures also put forward a variety of policy measures, combined with our huge domestic consumer market and consumer groups, we believe that there are the following areas with high growth potential. New retail formats, such as affordable snack stores, discount stores and other new formats. Domestic brands have also continued to shine, encouraging the development of domestic brands by cultivating and promoting a number of leading consumer brands, providing investors with opportunities to support the growth of local brands.
Tapping into the consumption potential of time-honored Chinese brands and intangible cultural heritage provides investors with the opportunity to protect and inherit traditional culture while exploring the market. In addition, the development of rural e-commerce provides development opportunities for rural e-commerce and logistics services, as well as new opportunities for the development of brands in the sinking consumer market.
Wang Shiyao: At present, there is still a lot of room for improvement in terms of new technologies to expand consumer experience, such as the application of virtual reality technology in the production and sales of the consumer field, which is still very rudimentary and has great growth potential; As well as in terms of domestic "trendy products", there are already a number of enterprises with certain advantages in brands, products and sales capabilities, but there is still a relatively large room for improvement in the market share of the entire industry. Yang Kun: In promoting the diversified and integrated development of shopping consumption, the comprehensive utilization of old factories, parks, and traditional department stores is mentioned. With the penetration rate of online shopping and the improvement of the efficiency of logistics and distribution, online shopping has become a very common consumer behavior, which poses a serious challenge to traditional department store complexes that need to bear high land rent costs. Given the intrinsic value of large-scale properties in the city, it is important to explore their innovative uses, and Beijing's 798 Art District is one of the examples of successful transformations, demonstrating the great potential and socio-economic benefits of renovation.
Cultivating the consumption of domestic "trendy products" is a major consumption strategy. After years of technological iteration, China's manufacturing industry has reached the top level in the world, laying a solid foundation for local brand building. The development of the brand is a gradual process, and cultivating domestic products is conducive to the self-circulation of domestic consumption, and it is also a preliminary preparation for the future of domestic products to the world.
Guan Shan: For example, for young consumers, it combines IP and amusement facilities, shapes theme stores, focuses on the closed-loop experience of consumption, and provides emotional value, which may be IP trendy toy stores, game halls, dance studios, VR experience halls, etc. New Scenarios of Commodity Consumption: Focus on Robots, Smart Home Equipment, Intelligent Driving and Other Fields China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of bulk commodity consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that new scenarios for automobile consumption will be expanded; Enrich the home decoration and home consumption scene; Create new scenarios for electronic product consumption, etc. Among them, which areas have investment value and can be actively focused? Yang Kun: Expanding new scenarios of automobile consumption is the main starting point for cultivating commodity consumption. The mainland consumes about 26 million passenger cars annually, accounting for about 40% of global consumption, and has a huge market and industrial chain. At present, the annual consumption of new energy vehicles in mainland China is expected to be 10 million, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. The promotion of new energy vehicles not only promotes the development of the automobile consumer market, but also has a positive effect on reducing oil import dependence and reducing exhaust emissions. "Vehicle-road-cloud integration" is the general direction of urban transportation development in the future, which can effectively solve the problem of urban congestion and improve traffic efficiency.
The highlight of creating a new consumption scenario for electronic products is robots. Robots based on large AI models are more intelligent than before, improving their ability to understand and execute human instructions, and showing the advantages of all-weather, programmable, and repeatable. Although the development of artificial intelligence-empowered robots is still on the way, it has seen a glimmer of light. In the future, if robots can enter thousands of households, they will give birth to huge industries and give birth to many large companies and investment opportunities.
Wang Yiqin: First of all, look at the new scenario of automobile consumption, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the continuous application of intelligent technology, related industrial chains such as batteries, intelligent driving systems and other consumer industries are worth paying attention to. At the same time, it is noted that the number of passenger cars in China continues to increase, and automotive aftermarket services such as maintenance and repair service chains, second-hand car trading platforms, auto finance, and charging piles also deserve active attention.
Looking at home improvement and home consumption, the market prospect of smart home products is broad, such as smart home appliances, smart lighting, smart security and other products The demand is increasing. In addition, the R&D and production of personalized customized home furnishings and environmentally friendly materials are also hot spots for investment.
Finally, in the new scenario of electronic product consumption, wearable devices such as smart watches and health monitoring bracelets have huge market potential. In addition, the service industry related to the recycling and reuse of high-end electronic products is also worth paying attention to.
Guan Shan: New Scenarios of Automobile Consumption: Based on the increasing enthusiasm of young people for travel, it is convenient for consumers to travel, and the new energy vehicle industry focusing on cost-effectiveness or the car rental industry that is convenient and money-saving is worth paying attention to.
Enriching home improvement and home furnishing scenes: With the increase in the proportion of young people renting houses, the attention to the rental experience will also increase significantly, and companies that provide cost-effective, detachable, environmentally friendly and healthy light home furnishing products are worth paying attention to.
Create a new scenario for electronic product consumption: With the advent of a new generation of electronic devices such as VR, the consumer experience has been upgraded to a new dimension. Focus on investment opportunities in new technologies, new devices, and content application companies.
New Scenarios of Elderly Care and Childcare Consumption: Focus on Physical Examination, Medical Equipment, Elderly Care and Other Health Care Fields China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of healthy elderly care and childcare consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that the development of healthy consumption will be promoted; expand new scenarios for silver consumption; Actively develop childcare consumption. What are the investment opportunities to look out for? Yun Huang: In the consumer health sector, we focus on investing in institutions that provide special medical services, as well as companies that develop and produce medical devices and health products. In the silver consumption scenario, there are structural opportunities in the fields of medical services, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices. In medical services, such as home-based elderly care services are a good entry point. In terms of the pharmaceutical industry, we will make efforts to innovate and develop R&D, grasp the general direction of drug development in the future, and grasp the changing trend of local disease spectrum. In terms of devices, referring to the Japanese experience, the increase in the prevalence of tumors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases will have a pulling effect on diagnostic devices and therapeutic devices; Diabetes and orthopedic-related diseases have also promoted the growth of related chronic disease management and rehabilitation equipment.
In terms of childcare, we pay attention to the new model of community and family mutual childcare services, including community-based childcare services that are centrally managed and operated. Pay attention to related infant products, such as infant skin care products, medicines, etc., and some domestic brands have emerged and developed rapidly.
Zhu Biying: The big health industry is entering the fast lane of rapid development. With the increasing awareness of health, the demand for health consumption market will continue to grow. Investors can focus on companies in related fields such as health food, fitness equipment, health monitoring products, etc. At the same time, with the deepening of the aging of the population, the silver consumer market is gradually rising. Investors can also pay attention to products and services related to the lives of the elderly, such as companies in the fields of senior tourism, senior fitness, and senior health food. Investors can pay attention to medical ETFs that include listed companies such as physical examinations, medical devices, and eye hospitals. Wang Yiqin: In the field of health consumption, combined with the consumption needs of the old and young age groups, it is judged that health and health food and nursing service institutions have development potential.
First of all, with the increase in health awareness, consumer demand for foods rich in vitamins, minerals and antioxidants, such as dairy products and whole grain products, is rising, and companies investing in R&D and production of such products, especially those focusing on natural ingredients and functional foods, are worth paying attention to.
Looking at service-oriented consumption, under the silver economy, institutions that provide high-quality nursing services, such as nursing homes, nursing homes, home care services, and other fields, have broad prospects; In the field of childcare consumption, the chaining and branding of childcare service institutions is an industry trend.
Wang Shiyao: We can focus on exploring growth points around the silver consumption scene, such as the health care industry, household medical equipment, etc. Pay attention to the economic cycle, policy changes and international trade environment, etc. China Fund News: How do you view the current opportunities in the field of large consumption? In addition to the above-mentioned new consumption areas, what other sub-sectors are you optimistic about? Where are the risks? Huang Yun: At present, the opportunities in the field of large consumption are mainly reflected in the following aspects. On the one hand, in addition to the product itself, consumers pay more attention to products that can provide emotional value to themselves, and the proportion of self-pleasing weight has increased. On the other hand, consumers pay attention to cost-effective products, and with the continuous improvement of channels and supply chains, companies that can provide consumers with cost-effective products stand out. Secondly, we pay attention to the opportunities in the consumer export chain in the home appliances, light industry and other industries. Finally, the trend of automotive intelligence, electrification, localization and going overseas in the technology industry, as well as the new applications and products brought about by the application of AI technology.
The main risk points include the following aspects: the market competition is fierce, the competition in the consumer field is becoming increasingly fierce, and enterprises need to continue to innovate and improve their competitiveness to maintain market share. Secondly, macroeconomic fluctuations, economic cycles, policy changes and the international trade environment may affect consumers' purchasing power and consumer confidence. Finally, there are uncertainties in the global supply chain, such as fluctuations in raw material prices, logistics disruptions, etc., which can affect the operations of enterprises.
Yang Kun: The consumer sector has always had abundant opportunities. As a huge and diversified market, the mainland consumer market has many sub-sectors, and there are often situations where the west is not bright and the east is bright. At present, there are many bright spots in the domestic consumer market, such as ice and snow tourism, barbecue, etc., and some fast-moving consumer goods with high cost performance, reduced channel levels, and consumer benefits can still achieve market growth beyond expectations. In essence, consumer demand is persistent, but the key to activating this demand is to provide more cost-effective goods and services to stimulate consumers' motivation to continue buying. Zhu Biying: The government has designated 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion" to promote the continuous expansion of consumption through the two-wheel drive of policies and activities. This provides a good environment for the development of the consumer market, especially in the fields of tourism, livestock and poultry meat products, etc., which has great development potential and market opportunities.
Consumption goes overseas and consumption globalization is also a direction worth paying attention to. The recovery of summer travel demand has driven the recovery of high-speed rail profitability in the airline yard. At the same time, driven by the high prosperity of domestic brands going overseas, the "Belt and Road" initiative, and cross-border e-commerce, the prosperity of going overseas can still be maintained, and the current cross-border logistics industry is booming.
Guan Shan: At present, the large consumption environment is weak, in line with the consumer psychology of pursuing the ultimate cost performance, providing high-quality and low-cost products, and consumer companies with the advantage of perfect supply chain are more valuable for investment. Wang Shiyao: At present, many industries in China have established a globally competitive industrial chain foundation, and there are also a number of companies in the consumer sector that have the ability to go out and expand overseas markets. Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Muyu