China Fund News reporter Wu Jun
In the first half of this year, the performance of the dividend theme fund was outstanding, and the data showed that the average rate of return of the fund with "dividends" and "dividends" in the name of the whole market this year was about 6%, and the return rate of the good performance this year was nearly 30%, but the reporter also found that the internal differentiation of the dividend theme fund was very large, and the poor performance of the fund lost more than 19% this year, with a difference of 49 percentage points from the beginning to the end. In this regard, the institution believes that it may be that the index compilation method is different, or it may be that the fund manager's allocation to the industry sector is different. Therefore, when investors choose a dividend fund, they still have to look at the industry and strategy they allocate.
In fact, there are more than 50 new dividend-themed funds issued this year, and many fund companies are queuing up to apply for such products. However, since the end of May, the dividend index has seen a high correction, and the institution's view on whether the dividend track is too crowded is negative. It believes that the dividend strategy has medium and long-term allocation value, and investors can choose funds that focus on sectors and individual stocks with relatively stable performance and dividends, and can measure decisions based on factors such as valuation, dividend yield, and fundamentals.
The average return of dividend theme funds this year is 6%, and the difference between the first and last performance is 49 percentage points
Wind data shows that as of June 28, 210 funds with "dividends" and "dividends" in their names (calculated separately for different shares) in the whole market have an average return of about 6% since the beginning of this year; Among them, 86 funds have returned more than 10% this year, but 17 funds have fallen more than 10% this year. Although the name is the same, the performance is very different, and the better performance of Yongying Dividend Preferred A and ICBC Dividend Preferred A have returns of 29.98% and 23.87% respectively this year; However, there are also Bank of Communications Dividend Optimization and Guolian Smart Dividend A, with losses of 19.47% and 18.26% respectively this year.
Regarding why the dividend theme fund "has the same name and different life", Li Zhaoting, a researcher at Yingmi Fund, said that the reason behind this is the difference in index compilation methods; In addition, active equity dividend funds have higher volatility, a high degree of internal differentiation of returns, and a more flexible investment scope, which may lead to "style drift".
Wang Zihan, fund manager of Harvest Fund, also said that the current performance differentiation of theme funds, from the perspective of passive index investment, may be related to the compilation method between different dividend indexes. For example, the dividend low volatility strategy has performed better so far this year, while the SZSE Dividend Index has been relatively average.
Liu Jie, fund manager of Ping An Fund, believes that it may be that when the market switches, fund managers have different weights in the research and grasp of industry sectors and individual stocks, so there is a large gap in the performance of high-dividend products.
In fact, the CSI Dividend Index has fallen 7.78% from its peak since May 22. Is there still a chance for the market to discuss the dividend sector?
As of June 27, the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index fell 2.78% in the latest month, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.70% in the same period. Extending to the last year, the index rose by 10.78%, during which the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.64%, which can be seen with good offensive attributes.
"At present, the dividend strategy still has medium and long-term allocation value. On the one hand, when the market is volatile, investors' risk appetite decreases, and they pay more attention to dividend income, and the market prefers companies with high dividends. On the other hand, most of the dividend assets are leading enterprises with mature business models and stable competitive patterns, with abundant cash and a high probability of sustained high dividends. In the case of scarcity of prosperity, the target of high dividends is the direction of marginal improvement. Wang Zihan said.
Liu Jie also said that the recent adjustment of the dividend high dividend index is relatively moderate compared with the market and other sectors, "We believe that there will be better investment opportunities after the adjustment, and the financial energy, public utilities and central enterprises with relatively stable performance dividends are more worthy of attention." ”
Is the dividend track of more than 50 new dividend theme funds too crowded this year?
Wind data shows that according to the start date of subscription, there are 51 funds with "dividends" and "dividends" in their names issued this year (different shares are combined), and Bosera CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Connection, CCB Dividend Select, E Fund Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend and Low Volatility Connection began to be subscribed in June. In addition, this year, many companies such as Haifutong, Galaxy, Huatai Berry, and China Merchants have reported more than 10 dividend theme funds, which are waiting for the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Regarding the reasons for the active deployment of dividend funds in the public offering, Jiyu Fund believes that the market's enthusiasm for the dividend track comes from the defensive nature of the strategy and its excellent performance in the past two years. The CSI Dividend Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index for two consecutive years, and nearly eighty percent of the dividend-themed products have also achieved positive returns this year.
Li Zhaoting said that when the market is in a weak or volatile market, the defensive and anti-decline attributes of dividend strategies are often more favored by investors, and companies with stable dividends generally have sufficient cash flow and stable profitability, and the investment value is more cost-effective than growth stocks. "At present, dividend assets have not reached the level of complete overweight, and there may still be room for incremental funds to enter the dividend strategy."
Chi Yunfei, a senior analyst at the Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation and Research Center, said that firstly, dividend and high-dividend stocks usually represent a company's healthy financial status and sustained profitability, which can provide relatively stable income when the market is volatile, attracting more investors who seek stable returns; On the other hand, dividend stocks have performed relatively better this year, which has also attracted some funds chasing income. "From the perspective of self-marketing and meeting market demand, strengthening the layout of the bonus track is a win-win situation."
In addition, there is a lot of discussion in the market about whether the bonus track is too crowded. Jiyu Fund said that three indicators were used to construct the congestion of the sector according to equal weights, including the quantile of the proportion of the turnover amount, the quantile of the proportion of the number of stocks that hit a 60-day high, and the quantile of the proportion of the number of individual stocks on the 30-day moving average. Since the beginning of this year, the trading congestion index of the dividend strategy once pointed to a high level, but the market sentiment has cooled down recently, and the congestion index has also returned to a historically low level.
Wang Zihan believes that the essence of a high-dividend strategy is a deep value strategy, and in the long run, the stock price fluctuates around the value of the company, and high-quality assets are expected to achieve mean reversion if they are undervalued. As the economy develops, the industry distribution of high-dividend, low-volatility stocks is likely to evolve. In the long run, due to the focus on high-dividend companies, whether the dividend strategy can continue to be effective depends on the improvement of the return level of A-share shareholders.
Investors choose funds to focus on long-term allocation, stock dividends, and performance stability
There are a large number of dividend theme funds, different types, and large performance gaps, so how should current investors choose?
Wang Zihan said that at present, such theme funds have passive index and active equity; Taking passive indices as an example, they can be subdivided into indices such as ordinary dividends, low volatility dividends, and characteristic dividends. It is recommended that investors distinguish different types of dividend indices and understand their stock selection criteria, compilation rules, return-risk attributes, etc. "The high-dividend strategy is suitable for long-term holding, which can be gradually bought by means of regular and fixed amounts, averaging the cost, and reducing the impact of market volatility on investment. At the same time, determine the appropriate investment ratio, avoid excessive concentration on dividends and high dividend themes, and maintain portfolio diversification. ”
In the current environment, investors should match the corresponding products according to their own capital attributes, and try to select sectors and individual stocks with relatively stable performance and dividends, which can be combined with factors such as valuation, dividend yield, and marginal changes in fundamentals.
In addition, Li Zhaoting said that the dividend style has been corrected recently, and the allocation operation is still waiting for a better allocation time. You can choose a dividend index fund with a larger scale, less volatility and better performance to invest in. For some "dividend+" index funds, investors need to carefully analyze the attributes of their superposition factors to avoid style drift.
Chi Yunfei said frankly that the fund invests in dividends and high-dividend stocks, has stable performance and dividends, and is suitable for long-term holding. In addition, some dividend stocks belong to cyclical industries and will also be affected by industry cycles.
Jiyu Fund said that before investing in dividend funds, it is necessary to understand the strategy of the product, the industry of allocation, etc., and whether it meets the psychological expectations of investors, so as to avoid the embarrassing situation of "looking right but buying wrong". At the same time, for actively managed products, it is necessary to fully understand the fund manager, observe whether its style is stable, and whether it will still adhere to the dividend strategy in the future. You can also consider dividend index funds, which are relatively low-cost. "We believe that the dividend strategy is suitable for long-term investment, and we should be patient, avoid frequent trading and short-term speculation, and invest in dips or regular investment."
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Muyu