Why do we only talk about the economy at the problem level? And not just because Q&A is useless
Are there experts in China? Too much.
However, the reputation of the experts is not very good, and it feels that the experts are not only behind the situation, but also behind the people, especially in the judgment of economic growth. Ma Guangyuan said. In fact, this can't be blamed on experts, economic things are at most a directional prediction, you must make specific predictions, most of them are looking for death, this is like stocks, this kind of thing full of super-dimensional randomness, just judge the big trend, judge individual stocks, that is, a blind.
Can the big picture be judged?
Tsinghua's Li Daokui made a macro assessment of the economy in the next five years, with about three main points: first, the contest between China and the United States will continue; Second, the world economy will continue to be sluggish; Third, China's economic policy will seek progress while maintaining stability.
This judgment is not a big problem, because what is said is already happening, and the melon people think, doesn't this mean that they have said nothing? Do you still need to say this? In the era of self-media, it is really difficult to be a Chinese expert.
In fact, Dean Li has an attitude, which can be regarded as a kind of directional analysis, and some things should not be said directly.
In the next five years, China's economy will not be too good.
First, the contest between China will not slow down
In this kind of external contest, to be precise, the enemy is strong and we are weak.
In the past, we always believed that the opponent would not do anything that would injure 1,000 enemies and 800 himself, let alone lift a stone to shoot himself in the foot. As a result, the United States lifted the dollar and smashed the world's feet, the dollar interest rate hike cut the world's leeks, and China's renminbi is already the most resilient.
Dean Li likened the relationship between China and the United States to a boxing fight, believing that the opponent is an irrational punch, and we should not be led by an irrational opponent to disrupt the rhythm, and rationally let the United States accept China; And, he thinks he can do it. This is likely to be wishful thinking, with U.S. imports to China falling by 40% at the end of last year, and a series of combo punches targeting electric vehicles this year, which have not changed their policy toward China because of China's rationality.
Obviously, the contest between China and the United States is not an economic contest, but a multidimensional contest, and any rational illusion is self-deception.
This year, we emphasize the expansion of domestic demand, which is a rational response, that is, do not rely too much on foreign trade, in the past we have greatly benefited from foreign trade, in the future it is likely to do a subtraction in the growth rate. From this point of view, the external environment will need to reassess the development of China's economy in the next five years.
Second, the world economy will enter a recession
This has almost become the consensus of the whole world, but this year may not be a recession, at least not in the United States.
There has always been a confidence online that the dollar is in recession, that the US economy will collapse due to inflation, and that the yuan will take its place. The reality is that the dollar and the US economy are not so bad, and the gap in aggregate is not narrowing, but widening, from 77% to 69%.
Whether it is the United States or the global economic recession, it is not a good thing for China, but a test.
The global recession, China's economy also has its own structural contradictions, such as China's dependence on the international market, and high-end manufacturing is our shortcoming, which will mean that even if there is no de-globalization tendency, even if there is no de-sinicization tendency of Western powers led by the United States, China's economy will be deeply and long-term affected.
The Economic Work Conference has defined the economic options for the next 12 years, and from 2023 to 2035, China's economy will be dominated by expanding domestic demand, neither investment nor foreign trade.
Third, China's economy will seek progress while maintaining stability
The work conference highlighted the word "stability", which is the main positioning of economic policy in recent years, that is, no longer deliberately pursuing the speed of economic development, especially the GDP index, but more emphasizing the security and balance of the economy.
Despite this, the actions at the beginning of the year still gave people a strong impression that the provinces were scrambling to report their own GDP growth targets, mainly because they did not delay by 5%, and the GDP index intentionally or unintentionally became a standard for performance evaluation, and economic problems should not be too administrative.
How stable, how to enter?
Dean Li said: "The factors driving China's economic development in the future are unlikely to be real estate, nor are they likely to be large-scale traditional infrastructure investment. …… I firmly believe that industrial investment will be the main driving force for China's economic growth in the next five years. “
On this point alone, Dean Li, like other experts, will be slapped in the face again.
At the beginning of the year, the extremely dense policy can be seen that the center of everything points to real estate, real estate must be sold, and no effort must be spared to support, why is this? Because for so many years, more than half of the local finance's income has to rely on real estate, and it is impossible to do it if you want to rely on it, and there is no industry that can replace the huge amount of land transfer money in terms of weight, which may be a kind of curse.
Can no longer rely on real estate, this point every expert is very clear, a healthy economy, must be the balance between enterprise development and finance, fiscal revenue can only rise with the development of enterprises, through a reasonable corporate tax and individual income tax balance, not through the sale of a profitable public resources. However, our expenses cannot be lowered, expanding domestic demand, and because the people's income cannot rise, the development of enterprises is also a slow effort, which cannot replace the huge income of real estate; How can this expand domestic demand?
The reality is that the volume and price of real estate have fallen, which has directly affected the overall economy, so in the next five years, China's economy will no longer rely on real estate, and effectively increase support for the real economy, so as to achieve a stable and progressive pattern.
President Li's assessment of China's economy in the next five years should be calm, but it is not easy to do so. His assessment of China's economy is modest, but it hints at three pressures:
The external environment will become more complex, and it is no longer possible for China and the United States to add to the past;
The world economy is in recession or not, and almost all rich countries have direct conflicts of interest with China and will impose restrictions on China, which is partly affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
If China wants to seek progress while maintaining stability, it just needs to come back and seek stability in the midst of progress, otherwise it will lack the strength to deal with the onset of a long-term illness such as the collapse of the property market. The property market has been stable for five years, and it has not only made progress, but on the contrary, the decline this year has been more explosive than ever before; If all the policies introduced this year are in 2018, it was the year when Vanke shouted the slogan of survival, and now it may have stabilized. Dean Li's judgment of the situation is not wrong, and his optimism about the future is likely to be completely wrong.
Private enterprises and reformist academics were the guests: eyes turned to the July conference