Source: CCTV news client
In recent weeks, the situation between Lebanon and Israel has heated up suddenly. Iran's diplomatic mission to the United Nations recently warned that Israel would face a "devastating war" if it launched a "full-scale military aggression" against Lebanon. Will Iran really get involved in the conflict? What is the attitude of the United States towards the Lebanese-Israeli conflict? For more content, let's take a look at the analysis and interpretation of experts.
Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: If there is a full-scale conflict between Israel and Allah in Lebanon, the probability of Iran being involved is very high. Allah is an important geopolitical ally of Iran and an important lever for Iran to pose a military threat to Israel. Iran will not allow Allah to be weakened by Israel, but on the other hand, neither Iran nor Israel wants direct armed strikes against each other. The military conflict between Israel and Iran, which we saw in April, has in fact demonstrated the highest level of military confrontation that the two countries can accept.
It can be inferred that if Israel strikes Allah, Iran will intervene, but it will be relatively restrained, and the relevant actions will probably not exceed the previous level of involvement. Nevertheless, at present, Israel and Iran will certainly exert the highest degree of pressure on each other in terms of rhetoric, hoping to deter the other side from taking substantive military action.
The United States has expressed inconsistent views on the Lebanese-Israeli conflict
Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: From the perspective of the domestic affairs of the United States, especially from the perspective of serving this year's election, the Biden administration does not want to see a large-scale conflict between Lebanon and Israel, because this will make Biden's Middle East policy more vulnerable to attacks by the Republican Party. Therefore, we have seen the White House repeatedly express its opposition to Israel's full-scale military strikes against Allah in Lebanon, but after Israeli Defense Secretary Gallant's visit to the United States, the US side changed its position, saying that it would not prevent Israel from entering Lebanon, and said that once the war began, it would guarantee all of Israel's armament needs. This shows that Israel and the United States have agreed on their strategy toward Lebanon.
Judging from the current reality, on the one hand, Israel hopes to deter the Lebanese Allah Party through the "brinkmanship" policy and demand that it compromise and retreat. On the other hand, the United States supports Israel by increasing its military deployment in the surrounding areas of Lebanon, and once the war begins, it will determine the intensity of the strikes of the United States and Israel depending on the level of specific military actions of Allah, but it is always necessary to complete the strikes quickly and avoid a long delay in the situation between Lebanon and Israel like the Gaza conflict.