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Receive every freshly released tweet in a timely manner2023 is a year of sustained and stable development of the mainland dairy industry, with good results in raw milk production, dairy processing, import and export, product quality, market sales, and economic benefits.
One
2023 Operation Overview
(1) Production of raw milk
Output: In 2023, the country's milk output will be 41.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, which is the fourth consecutive year that the mainland's raw milk production has increased by more than 6% (6.8% in 2022, 7.1% in 2021, and 7.5% in 2020). Among them: Inner Mongolia 7.926 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, accounting for 18.88% of the country's total output; Hebei 5.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, accounting for 13.63% of the country's total output; Ningxia 4.306 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.70%, accounting for 10.26% of the country's total output.
Milk price: According to the average price monitoring of fresh milk in 10 major producing areas such as Inner Mongolia and Hebei announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: the average price in June was 3.88 yuan/kg, down 6.8% from the average price of 4.16 yuan/kg in June 2022; The average price in December was 3.67 yuan/kg, down 10.9% from 4.12 yuan/kg in December 2022; The average price in 2023 will be 3.85 yuan/kg, down 7.5% from 4.16 yuan/kg in 2022.
Quality: The quality of raw milk is stable and excellent. According to the monitoring data of the national dairy industry technology system, the production capacity of the radiation field will be significantly increased in 2023, with a yield of 10.7 tons, a milk fat rate of 3.93%, a milk protein rate of 3.28%, a bacterial count of 28,500, and a somatic cell of 194,000. China's dairy farming level has entered the ranks of the world's high-yield dairy countries.
(2) Dairy production
From January to December 2023, there will be 654 dairy enterprises above designated size in the country, with a total sales of 462.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.57%, higher than the average growth rate of 2.55% in the food manufacturing industry, and ranking second among the seven major industries in the food manufacturing industry; the total profit was 39.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.21%; The profit margin on sales revenue was 8.53%, 8.16% in 2022 and 8.02% in 2021; the inventory of finished products was 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -9.04%, accounting for 2.73% of the total sales revenue, 2.96% in 2022 and 2.16% in 2021; The total loss of loss-making enterprises was 4 billion yuan, and the ratio of loss to total profit was 1:9.85, 1:14.87 in 2022, and 1:5.22 in 2021.
From January to December 2023, the output of dairy products of enterprises above designated size in China was 30.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.08%, of which liquid milk was 28.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.79% (2.38% in 2022, 9.68% in 2021, and 3.28% in 2020); milk powder was 871,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of -1.38% (0.08% in 2022, 1.76% in 2021, and -9.43% in 2020); The production of other solid dairy products (condensed milk, cheese, cream, etc.) was about 1.08 million tons.
Key production areas of liquid milk in 2023
The situation of key production areas of milk powder in 2023
Proportion of Dairy Products by Variety (%)
Note: Compiled according to the "National Dairy Enterprise Economic and Technical Index Data Compilation".
(3) Import and export
1. Imports: From January to December 2023, the country imported a total of 3.094 million tons of various dairy products, amounting to 12.687 billion US dollars, an increase of -9.94% and -12.56% year-on-year, respectively.
According to the amount of measurement, the proportion of various dairy products in the total import value: infant formula powder 33.85%; milk powder 23.04%; cream 8.14%; cottage cheese 7.63%; whey powder 6.81%; cream 6.50%; liquid emulsion 4.40%; casein 4.34%; Whey protein 3.01%. Dairy imports in 2023 are as follows:
The mainland is the world's largest importer of dairy products, with about 19.935 million tons of fresh milk imported in 2023, equivalent to 47.5% of the total domestic milk production. The amount of imported dairy products is equivalent to RMB, which is equivalent to 19.5% of the total operating income of the whole domestic industry. Imports accounted for 21.4% of total world dairy trade in 2023 (99.3 million tonnes of milk equivalent in 2021).
2. Exports: From January to December 2023, the total export of dairy products was 60,700 tons, with an amount of 283 million US dollars, an increase of 29.79% and 34.41% year-on-year, respectively. Although the volume and value of exports have increased significantly compared with the previous year, they are still the weak point of China's dairy sales. In terms of value, exports are equivalent to only 2.2% of imports; The share of various products was infant formula milk powder 57.33%, milk powder 18.51%, liquid milk 8.09%, fermented milk 4.91%, cream 3.29%, condensed milk 1.80%. Dairy exports in 2023 are as follows:
(4) Product quality
1. National supervision and sampling: According to the announcement issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation, in 2023, a total of 109698 batches of dairy products will be sampled, and 146 batches will be unqualified, with a pass rate of 99.87%; A total of 8453 batches of infant formula powder were sampled, and 6 batches were unqualified, with a pass rate of 99.93%; This is the highest pass rate among the 34 types of food supervised and sampled by the state, and the product quality is stable and excellent.
Dairy products have become the representative of high-quality food in mainland China and are deeply trusted by consumers. In particular, infant formula milk powder, since the beginning of production in the eighties of the last century, the product standard has been modified and improved 4 times, the current production of products has been the fifth generation of "breast milk" formula, the formula is scientific, reasonable, the selection of materials is strict, the process technology is advanced, the quality control is strict, has been one of the best infant food in the world.
2. 2023 Mainstream Brand Infant Formula Quality Competition: This year's quality competition has a total of 29 companies and 31 brands, including almost all domestic mainstream brands. The participating brands are: Imperial Treasure, Newbecansu, Junlebao, Daqing Aimele, Meilu, Yilijin Lingguan, Shengyuan, Chenguan, Wandashan, Betjia, Newbeizi, Mengniu Ruipien, Nengliduo Aiyou, Huaguan, Sanyuan, Guangming, Renchu, Ouenbei, Liaoyuan Xueci, Onenda, China Feihe, Meiliyuan, Meiliyuan Aiyousu, Beinmei, Mingyi, Yipin, Biostime, Duojiaduo Koala Qiqi, Huishan Marui.
This year's quality competition was held once a month, lasting 11 months, with 318 batches of samples, 988 samples, and a total of 72 testing indicators. In addition to the items specified in the standard, the test items have also been specially added: chlorate, perchlorate, disinfectant residues, florfenicol, vanillin, ethyl vanillin and other items. The principle of judgment is strictly based on the requirements of national food safety standards, product explicit indicators, and nutritional content lists. After inspection, all sample sampling items were qualified, and the pass rate of 31 brands was 100%, which fully proved that the quality of domestic mainstream brands of infant formula was stable and excellent, and it was completely trustworthy.
Two
Operational overview for the first quarter of 2024
(1) Production of raw milk
In the first quarter, the national raw milk production continued to maintain a steady growth trend, with milk output increasing by 5.1% year-on-year, of which the key producing areas: Ningxia increased by 26.5%, Shandong 10.73%, Heilongjiang 4.9%, Inner Mongolia 4.6%, and Hebei 3.3%.
Raw milk price: The average milk price in the first quarter of 2024 was 3.60 yuan/kg, down 11.1% from 4.05 yuan/kg in the first quarter of 2023, of which the average price in March was 3.53 yuan/kg, down 11.5% from the average price of 3.99 yuan/kg in March 2023. The industry believes that there is still further downward pressure on milk prices.
(2) Dairy production
In the first quarter, the national dairy output was 7.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%, including 6.67 million tons of liquid milk, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, and the output of milk powder was 254,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The increase in liquid milk production was lower than the 4.00% increase in the same period last year, indicating that the market outlook is not optimistic; In particular, the increase in milk powder production exceeded 2.37% in the same period last year, which shows that the surplus of milk source is still intensifying, and enterprises have increased the amount of powder spraying.
In the first quarter, the total operating income of the whole industry was 133.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.22%; The total profit was 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.73%, the operating income margin was 12.3% (9.9% in the same period of the previous year), and the inventory of finished products decreased by 4.8% year-on-year. It can be seen that although the market sales pressure is greater, the economic benefits have improved.
According to the quarterly reports released by 19 domestic listed companies, the sales revenue in the first quarter was 49.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -1.49%; the profit was 6.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.25%; Among them, there are 5 enterprises with positive growth in sales revenue, with an increase of 11.14%-1.47%; There were 14 enterprises with negative growth, with an increase of -41.78%--2.60%.
(3) Product quality
In the first quarter, a total of 15,650 batches of dairy products were supervised and sampled by the state, of which 15,642 batches were qualified and 8 batches were unqualified, with a pass rate of 99.95%; A total of 756 batches of infant formula milk powder were sampled, of which 755 batches were qualified and 1 batch was unqualified, with a pass rate of 99.87%; The product quality is stable and excellent.
(4) Import and export
1. Imports: In the first quarter, a total of 697,900 tons of dairy products were imported, amounting to 2.714 billion US dollars, an increase of -14.21% and -28.66% year-on-year respectively. In terms of value, the proportion of various dairy products in the total import value is: infant food 30.4%; milk powder 27.1%; cream 8.9%; cottage cheese 7.8%; cream 7.0%; whey powder 5.9%; liquid emulsion 3.5%; casein 4.6%; Whey protein 3.1%.
Imports of dairy products in the first quarter were as follows
2. Exports: In the first quarter, a total of 14,787 tons of dairy products were exported, with an amount of 59.8 million US dollars, an increase of 12.38% and -2.59% year-on-year respectively. In terms of value, the proportion of major dairy products in the total export value is: infant food 56.0%; milk powder 16.4%; liquid emulsion 10.5%; fermented milk 6.5%; Condensed milk 1.8%.
Exports of dairy products in the first quarter were as follows
Three
There is a problem
In recent years, some contradictions and problems accumulated in the process of rapid development of the industry have gradually become prominent, which has become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of the industry. The main ones are:
(1) The pressure on the surplus of raw milk is increasing
In recent years, dairy cow breeding in mainland China has developed rapidly, and the increase in raw milk production and the expansion of dairy product sales market are not coordinated and mismatched, resulting in an increasingly aggravated surplus of raw milk in key producing areas. In 2017, the national milk output was 30.39 million tons, and in 2023, it will be 41.97 million tons, an increase of 38.1% in six years; In 2017, the total output of dairy products in the country was 29.35 million tons, and in 2023, it will be 30.55 million tons, an increase of only 4.1% in six years. As a result, since 2021, there have been varying degrees of milk surplus in some major producing areas. In order to prevent the disaster of the industry - the recurrence of the slaughter of cows and milk, the processing enterprises actively play a leading role in stabilizing the industry, conscientiously implement the purchase contract, do not refuse to receive, do not limit the collection, and temporarily store the surplus milk powder, and prefer to bear their own economic losses. In order to alleviate the economic losses of processing enterprises, some places have successively introduced powder spraying subsidy policies, and we express our heartfelt gratitude.
(2) The expansion of the consumer market is weak, and the production of some products has declined
1. The proportion of fermented milk in liquid milk production has been declining year by year, and the market has shrunk, accounting for 33.60% in 2018 and 23.19% in 2022, a decrease of 10 percentage points in four years. The main reasons for the decline are: traditional fermented milk is a low-temperature product, transportation and sales need cold chain, basically sold in the city, and in recent years, it has almost been in a saturated state, and the development space has gradually shrunk; Although the problem of cold chain needs for transportation and sales of room temperature fermented milk, some consumers believe that room temperature yogurt has no live bacteria and has lost its unique efficacy, which affects the enthusiasm of some consumers to choose.
2. The output of milk powder is declining year by year. Infant formula accounts for more than 50% of the milk powder production in mainland China, and the demand for infant formula is declining year by year due to the decline in newborn babies. In 2016, there were 17.86 million newborns in the country, and in 2023, it will be 9.02 million. In 2016, the national milk powder output was 1.390 million tons, and in 2023, it will be 872,000 tons, a decrease of 37.3%. Among them, the proportion of infant formula milk powder in the total milk powder production will drop from 56.8% in 2016 to about 50% in 2023.
Four
Industry focus for the next year
(1) Vigorously develop new quality productivity and optimize product structure
In recent years, the mainland dairy market has shown a structural surplus and shortage, that is, the liquid milk market is saturated, while cheese, cream, raw milk powder and whey products are basically all dependent on imports, resulting in a slowdown in the development of the industry. We must vigorously develop "new quality productivity" and optimize the product structure. The development of "new quality productivity" can give priority to the following aspects:
1. Milk powder: adult formula, such as: elderly formula, maternal formula, lactose-free formula; Functional formulas, such as sleep improvement formulas, intestinal soothing formulas, immunity enhancement formulas, probiotic formulas, etc. Cross-border development of liquid milk can also be considered.
2. Liquid milk: lactose-free pure milk, fresh milk; flavored prepared milk, functionally enhanced prepared milk; Probiotic fermented milk with more obvious functions, live bacteria fermented milk at room temperature.
3. Development of import substitution products: infant formula production enterprises can develop whey production to replace imported whey powder; Cheese production enterprises develop original cheese to replace imports; Casein production enterprises can increase the use of raw milk as raw materials to replace imports.
(2) Strengthen the planning of the development of raw milk
1. Dairy production enterprises should communicate and coordinate with dairy breeding enterprises, and the growth of raw milk should be coordinated and matched with the expansion of the dairy product consumption market, so as to enhance the planning of dairy breeding;
2. The business philosophy of dairy farming is not to pursue high yield one-sidedly, but to coordinate the cost of feeding with economic benefits;
3. Develop moderately large-scale family pastures, solve forage and feed on the spot, reduce costs and improve economic benefits;
4. Pay attention to the development of special milk, such as: dairy goats, milk buffaloes, yaks, milk camels, donkeys, horses, etc., increase the production of special dairy products, and enrich market supply.
(3) Continue to do a good job in guiding consumption
At present, the main contradiction affecting the development of the industry is the slowdown in the expansion of the consumer market. We need to strengthen publicity and guide consumption, so that more people can drink more milk, so that those who are not used to drinking milk can drink milk, and those who cannot drink milk can drink milk. The association will use a variety of forms of publicity during this year's National Dairy Nutrition Week, and also require all member units to carry out various forms of publicity activities at that time. Source: China Dairy Industry Association
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