In the process of the game between China and the United States, United States is now on the offensive and China is the defender.
To counter China, the United States government has repeatedly pressured its allies, while most countries prefer a cooperative attitude.
For example, Italy, the former European hegemon has long since been reduced to a pawn in the United States.
However, in recent years, the economic and trade ties between Italy and China have also become closer, and this balance has been upset.
On July 3, the United Kingdom "Times" broke the news that on the 18th of last month, Italy authorities seized three containers in the port of Gioiatauro, which contained components of China's "Wing Loong" drone.
According to the information provided by United States, the shipping place of these containers is a small country in Southeast Asia, the destination is Libya, and the consignee is Havertal, the commander of the Libya National Army.
It is alleged that Italy was instructed by United States, which caused an uproar.
In fact, the core of the matter is that this drone is made by China, but it does not mean that China sold it to Libya, so what is the calculation of United States and Italy?
1. What is the seizure of drones?
First of all, the ship carrying this cargo was from Panama, and the freighter took the route of Morocco and Singapore in Africa.
However, the Italy side did not take any action against the freighter company.
A Italy staff member involved in the enforcement said that the order was given Italy, but behind it was a United States request.
Second, Italy said that the Panama freighter violated the UN arms embargo on Libya, but they did not disclose any evidence throughout.
The focus of the incident finally focused on the United States and United Kingdom media, who jointly criticized China, believing that China's move was a provocation against the United States, but the Chinese side did not respond to this.
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It has been ascertained that in the past period of time, two Libya of Canada descent were secretly operated to transport arms, oil, and other strategic materials to Libya, namely Fathi · Mahuk and Mahmoud · Sayhh.
The two men have been controlled by the United States police, and in the case of the incident in Italy, there is no evidence that China has anything to do with it, except that the drone is indeed made in China.
To put it another way, even if the drones did come from China, it is not certain that China is sending arms to Libya.
And there is a reason why Italy are at the mercy of United States in this matter.
Because the Italy government has always supported the Government of National Unity in Libya, it is a sworn enemy of the Libya National Army from a standpoint.
Interestingly, the United States camp is not one-sided in many countries now.
Take the National Army in Libya, for example, there are two giants of Russia and France who have publicly expressed their support for them.
This has kept the United States busy, and Russia has built several small military airfields for the Libya National Army.
The United States was trying to put pressure on the National Army, and just happened to encounter the drone, so it wanted to drag China into the water.
Ironically, the information United States provided to Italy is also an oolong, in fact, the delivery location of this batch of drones is in the Middle East.
We all know that there are many money lords in the Middle East, and the relationship with Libya is not ordinary, and it is common for them to resell their drones to Libya.
The importance that United States attach to these drones is related to the frequent operations of the Egyptian military in western Libya.
According to the United States company McSar, the drones used by the Egypt military are about 11 meters long and have a wingspan of 21 meters.
Maxsar satellites also captured the drones flying from airfields at two military bases in Egypt, Ottoman and Swaki.
Judging from satellite aerial photos, the two military bases in Egypt are very large, and there are 8 newly built hangars alone, which are parked with a large number of Pterodactyl I and Pterodactyl II drones.
In addition to Egypt, the Libya National Army is supported by the U.A.E..
In fact, as early as 2016, the U.A.E. was equipped with a large number of Pterodactyl I, and these drones were deployed to the Bo-Ghiv Jafa base in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, mainly to fight ISIS.
Pterodactyl I has been known all over the world since 2017, and this drone is not only good at conducting reconnaissance missions.
Its aggressiveness is not weak, equipped with BA-7, YZ-212 and YZ-102A series of missiles, and it is a strong opponent of the United States "Predator" UAV in the international arms market.
2. The network of diplomatic relations reflected by drones
In 2018, the Pterodactyl II, an upgraded version of the Pterodactyl I, began to dominate the mainstream market.
By 2020, Pterodactyl II has become the main model of drones in many countries.
The Libya National Army actually has a lot of drones from China, and their main model in the past was a batch of second-hand Rainbow-4 drones bought from Jordan.
However, supporters of the National Army have provided them with many advanced drones over the years, and in 2019, when a military conflict broke out between the National Unity Government and the National Army in the Libya capital, the National Army dispatched the Pterodactyl-2 drones.
There is speculation that the drones used by the National Army this time were provided by the U.A.E..
This kind of thing is not uncommon, when the Nationalist Army attacked the air base of the National Unity Government, using the "Wing Loong" drone.
The Government of National Unity uses Turkey's Bayraktar drones.
After the battle, Balaktar was no match at all, and several airports of the National Unity Government were severely damaged and suffered heavy losses.
Even countries such as the U.A.E., Jordan and Egypt have contributed, and as the big brother, Russia naturally cannot be left behind.
They gave the entire Pantsir air defense system to the National Army, and also supplied a large number of armored vehicles.
The reason why these countries have spared no effort to help the national army is that the government of national unity with United States and Italy assistance threatens the security of the Gulf countries.
The Muslim Brotherhood behind the Libya National Unity Army (LAC) has always been a major problem for Islamic countries.
Under the layout of the United States, the Libya has been deeply mired in the complex situation in the Gulf and is unable to extricate itself.
In any country, if there are two governments at the same time, it is a disaster.
It is clear that Libya is still valuable to United States today.
And once the national army is weakened, United States' control over the Gulf countries will be greatly strengthened, which many people do not want to see.
In the past, Russia's main adversary was Russia, but now United States has turned its momentum toward China.
So on the surface, United States take action against the alliance of the past Russia, but in fact, the drunkard does not mean to drink.
The fight against Libya is one goal, and more importantly to force Italy to take a stand.
Last year, Italy Prime Minister Meloni played the "China card" when she met with Biden.
However, given the cooperation between Italy and China in the Belt and Road Initiative in the past few years, I am afraid that United States will not be able to completely sever the ties between the two countries.
Withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative is unrealistic for Italy.
But a set of tai chi is necessary, because Italy is the only G7 country that has signed a "One Belt, One Road" agreement with China.
The United States government has said that more and more countries are now withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative, which is to deceive themselves.
Take Italy, for example, from 2019, the benefits they have gained through the Belt and Road Initiative are unimaginable, unless the United States can come up with greater benefits, but this is obviously impossible.
3. The difference between the choice of large and small countries: to take sides, or not to take sides?
It can be seen that Italy deliberately distanced itself from China at the diplomatic level, and was forced by the United States, rather than really wanting to "defect".
Therefore, for Italy, the most appropriate thing to do is to give United States "name".
Ostensibly admits that the United States is the boss, but secretly continues to do business with China.
Italy's attitude is influencing the other G7 countries.
Judging from the trends of recent years, these countries that have been United States coerced have been taking a similar approach to United States.
United States' attempt to ask them to take sides will never succeed, and no one is willing to cut off their own financial path.
At the last ASEAN summit, there was a heated discussion among the member states on the issue of taking sides.
The first to stand up was Malaysia, Malaysia took a very tough stance to attack United States, believing that United States was sowing discord between ASEAN and China.
It is clear that with the arrival of Chinese capital in ASEAN countries in recent years, the relationship between the two sides has become closer.
In the past, United States has been influencing ASEAN through economic means, and now it seems that the momentum has shifted to China's side.
As we have just said, France and Italy are on opposite sides in the case of Libya.
Unlike Italy, France has a deeper economic foundation, and Macron's visit to China last year brought sincerity.
Whether it is France in Europe or Australia in ASEAN, they have begun to make it clear that they want greater autonomy.
Reject United States control, but also call on other countries to also stand up and speak for themselves.
It is clear that the time of the collective countervailing of Western countries against China in the past has passed.
With the rise of China, more countries are willing to cooperate with China in an all-round way to achieve a win-win situation.
epilogue
The confrontation between China and the United States is unfolding in more and more fields, and Europe is undoubtedly the main battlefield for both sides, followed by Southeast Asia.
Although the United States has been pressuring its allies, these countries have given the answer with practical actions.
Not long ago, the Roy Institute in Australia released a set of data showing that China's influence at the diplomatic level is no weaker than that of United States.
Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, the United States iron alliance, refuse to confront China, while Southeast Asian countries have also put China in a more important position out of their own interests.
Bibliography:
"Between China and the United States, the United States asks the 10 ASEAN countries to take sides, and Premier Ma hits back: why do we do what we ask" Liu Lanxunjian 2024.3.5
"Italy seized Chinese drones and handed them over to United States? The truth is here! Blue Star Observation 2024.7.4