Recently, iiMedia Research released the "2021-2022 Global E-cigarette Industry Development Trend Special Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report shows that in the past three years, the global retail scale of e-cigarettes has maintained a rapid growth trend. Made in China leads the global e-cigarette technology innovation, selling well in more than 200 countries and regions.
The study shows that the global demand for e-cigarette harm reduction is obvious, and the demand for smokers to quit smoking is becoming more and more intense.
Global e-cigarette supervision is becoming more and more standardized, and HNB has become the main direction of development in developed countries in the United States and Japan
The report shows that according to the general standards of the international market, e-cigarette products are generally divided into two main directions: atomized e-cigarettes and HNB (heating without combustion). China's definition of e-cigarettes only mainly includes two categories: atomized e-cigarettes and solid e-cigarettes, and tobacco products such as heated cigarettes directly manufactured by tobacco processing are included in cigarette management and do not belong to e-cigarettes. Major countries and regions around the world, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have issued clear policy guidelines and regulatory measures for e-cigarettes.
HNB market penetration rate of smokers in major countries in the world in 2020 Source: Ai Media Consulting
In terms of market size, the retail scale of the global atomized e-cigarette industry will grow at a compound growth rate of 18.6% from 2018 to 2021, and the retail scale will reach 42.44 billion US dollars in 2022. The retail scale of the global HNB industry will grow at a compound growth rate of 58.4% in 2018-2021, and the retail scale is expected to reach 31.37 billion US dollars in 2022.
HNB products in each country's support and development stages vary, the most mature development of the country is Japan, 30% of smokers have completed the transformation to HNB products. Tobacco giant Philip Morris International officially announced that it will stop selling paper cigarettes in Japan within 10 years. By the end of 2020, the total number of IQOS users worldwide was about 17.6 million, of which 12.7 million users had completely switched to IQOS and successfully quit smoking.
Traditional tobacco consumption generally has a need to quit smoking, and harm reduction is the core demand of tobacco evolution
The report shows that more than 90% of traditional Chinese tobacco consumers have the idea of quitting smoking, 77.9% have tried, and only 23.8% have successfully quit smoking.
Survey data shows that more than 70% of Chinese cigarette consumers understand and are interested in e-cigarettes. Consumers are most interested in the auxiliary effect of e-cigarettes on smoking cessation (74.6%). 83.0% of Chinese e-cigarette consumers believe that e-cigarettes have helped to reduce dependence on cigarettes.
However, the research report also pointed out that consumers have a more unified understanding of e-cigarettes in replacing cigarettes or reducing cigarette dependence, most people recognize its positive effects, but there are still large differences in the harm of e-cigarettes, nearly half of consumers believe that its harm and cigarettes may be the same or higher, which is related to the irregular development of the domestic e-cigarette industry. With the release of national standards and the gradual strengthening of supervision, the standards and cognition of e-cigarette products will be unified.
The mainland's e-cigarette exports are strong and the technology leads the world to dominate
The data shows that China's e-cigarette industry, the market size continues to grow, the domestic sales market size of 14.50 billion yuan in 2021, the expected growth rate in 2022 is 76.0%, the market size of 25.52 billion yuan. The export market of China's e-cigarette industry is huge, with export exports reaching 101.50 billion yuan in 2021, and it is expected to grow at a growth rate of 63.4% in 2022, and the market size will reach 165.88 billion yuan. As of 2021, Chinese enterprise manufacturing accounts for more than 95% of the global electronic atomization capacity, which is sold to more than 200 countries and regions.
2017-2023 China's e-cigarette industry market size and its forecast Source: Ai Media Consulting
According to the IMS model to calculate the potential market size of China's e-cigarette segmentation, in the case of the gradual improvement of the policy on the supervision of the e-cigarette market, it is expected that the penetration rate of Solid E-cigarettes in China will reach 3%-5% in 2025 (HNB penetration rate will reach 15%-25%, of which solid e-cigarettes account for about 20%), the potential market size will be about 53.1 billion yuan - 88.5 billion yuan, the penetration rate of atomized e-cigarettes will reach 4%-8%, and the potential market size will be about 39.6 billion yuan - 79.2 billion yuan.
The study also shows that China has an advantage in the global e-cigarette industry, and Chinese manufacturing promotes the development of the industry through technological innovation.
The standardization of the mainland e-cigarette industry needs to be improved and standardized
The national e-cigarette enterprises are mainly small and medium-sized workshops, and there are regulatory blind spots in all aspects of production and operation, which cannot guarantee the experience of smokers, and their impact on the environment and health cannot be assessed.
Since 2021, the mainland has successively issued and improved the relevant national standards and management methods for e-cigarettes, clarified that e-cigarettes belong to the management of the Tobacco Monopoly Bureau, characterized e-cigarettes as new tobacco products, clarified the classification of atomized e-cigarettes and solid e-cigarettes, and promoted the production and operation of the e-cigarette industry to become more standardized.
Ai Media Consulting analysts believe that the new regulations will greatly improve the chaotic and disorderly state of hundreds of brands in the domestic e-cigarette market, and promote the steady and orderly development of leading enterprises with research and development strength and technological innovation.
Beijing News shell financial reporter Sun Wenxuan Editor Song Yuting Proofreader Lu Qian