Ningwang fell by more than 5% to a new low in the past three years, and lithium prices fell 42 consecutive years, but funds accelerated the purchase of such targets
Yesterday (December 18, 2023), CATL (300750) released a huge amount of more than 6 billion yuan throughout the day, ranking first in the two cities, falling by more than 5%, continuing to hit a new low in the past three years!
Image Credit: Snowball
[Funds buy battery leaders and battery ETFs against the market]
After-hours data shows that on the same day, northbound funds bought more and more, with a net purchase of 2.727 billion yuan, of which 419 million yuan was the net purchase of CATL, and the entire sector received a net purchase of more than 440 million yuan, second only to the banking sector.
Image source: 21 Finance
According to wind, the battery ETF (561910) received another fund increase on the same day, with 4 net inflows in 5 days, and the fund share has increased by nearly 140% since the beginning of this year.
Image source: Wind
[Early termination of the German tram subsidy]
On the news side, on December 16, local time, the German Ministry of Economy announced that the electric vehicle subsidy would be terminated on December 18.
According to the latest statement of the German Ministry of Economy, in order to cope with the budget gap, the electric vehicle subsidy plan originally planned to be implemented until the end of 2024 ended early on December 18, and the previously approved subsidies will continue to be issued, but no new applications will be accepted.
The news was lower than previously expected, raising concerns about the future development of the German electric vehicle market. The market believes that the sudden end of EV subsidies in Germany a year ahead of schedule could further impact the already sluggish local EV market.
Caitong Securities believes that "the impact of policy changes on CATL is very limited". The agency gave three reasons, one is that the impact of the previous public subsidy has been digested, and the cancellation is a private subsidy; the second is that the subsidy cancellation only affects models below 45,000 euros, while CATL has a larger proportion in the mid-to-high-end market; and the third is that the tax incentives are still retained, and new energy vehicles are still competitive.
[Lithium carbonate continues to find the bottom, and the price is 42 consecutive yin]
According to the latest quotation of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on December 18, lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade / domestic) fell 1440.0 yuan to 103,000 yuan / ton, a new low in more than 2 years, falling for 42 consecutive days, down 11940.0 yuan in the past 5 days, and 56910.0 yuan in the past 30 days, and lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery grade coarse particles/domestic) fell 1940.0 yuan to 93,700 yuan / ton, a new low in more than 2 years, falling for 41 consecutive days, down 12,740.0 yuan in the past 5 days, and down 55,170.0 yuan in the past 30 days.
Image source: Wind
China Securities Construction Investment recently pointed out that according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to the continuous decline in spot prices, some companies said that they had fallen below the cost and began to consider reducing or suspending production. Lithium carbonate production is expected to continue to decline next week. On the demand side, the performance of the downstream cathode market is average, mainly due to the weak terminal demand. Overall, the demand side is still weak, and Baichuan Yingfu expects that there will be a significant destocking in the first quarter of 24, so as to improve the demand structure.
[CSI battery valuation cost performance continues to rise]
According to Wind data statistics, as of December 18, 2023, the latest valuation of the CS battery index (931719.CSI) is 17.39 times PE, which is at the 0% historical quantile, and the absolute value has fallen to the historical limit low.
Image source: Wind
The Battery ETF (561910) tracks the CSI Battery Theme Index (hereinafter referred to as the CS Battery Index), covering battery manufacturing, core materials, lithium battery equipment, and energy storage inverters. Among them, more than 5% of the weight is the concept of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of industry, the CS battery index focuses more on the core part of the new energy vehicle industry, which has the characteristics of high growth and high elasticity. OTC investors can intervene through the Feeder Fund (Class A: 016019; Class C: 016020).