First of all, let's share the real operation.
As of today, the fund account has an estimated loss of about 15.13% for the year, and it is estimated to be down 0.49% today.
Today's operation: None, the current position is 94%.
The A-share stock account position is 99.5%, with a loss of 0.08% for the year and a gross loss of 1.4% today.
Originally, the coal rose sharply in the morning, and I was still happy, but my wife's stock account finally returned to the capital, and I could invite credit when I went home.
But in the afternoon, it turned into a big fall, so today my stock account continued to add 3% of my coal stock position.
One
Today, the Shanghai Composite closed at 2,898.88 points, officially falling below 2,900 points.
Many people must have been unable to bear it, and there have been many accounts that have been closed and cleared recently.
Why did it fall?
On the one hand, the redemption wave of funds may not be over.
On the other hand, they are worried that foreign capital will sell tomorrow, so they sell in advance.
However, to be optimistic, the worst thing for the market is to fluctuate and fall for another 3 days.
The current December is a bit like December '18.
In the end, the index fell all the way to the end of the year, and on the second trading day of the following year, it pulled out the big sun to establish the bottom.
Source: Wind
Seeing that the double bottom is about to be achieved, but it is all kinds of high and low, lack of confidence, and the fall of Kaka.
Then to judge that the index wants to bottom, there must be a momentum of a bullish candle.
But in the next few years 18 years, all the stage bottoms were started two or three days earlier at the end of the month.
Except for the low point at the end of October last year, it did not rise until November 1.
For example, what everyone remembers is that at the end of April when Shanghai was closed last year, it was grabbed 3 days in advance at the end of the month.
The fall at the end of December last year was also rushed ahead of schedule.
Source: Wind
Two
Although the market is pessimistic, lately I feel like I'm doing it again.
If you focus on the high dividend strategy, focus on the "two high and one low" companies that focus on high ROE, high dividends, and low valuation, you will not feel the bloody wind of the market at all.
Today's sharp rise in the coal sector is that yesterday's anthracite leader Orchid Science and Technology issued a dividend announcement:
The dividend per share was 0.75 yuan, accounting for 61.93% of the net profit in the first three quarters.
Compared with yesterday's closing price of 10.31 yuan, the dividend yield is 7.3%.
The market is not stingy with companies that focus on shareholder returns and have low valuations, opening today with a surge of 8.83%.
Although it closed down, it also closed up 4.36%.
Recently, coal has risen sharply, and some people have begun to complain about whether the excess returns of the dividend strategy are sustained.
What do you think about this problem?
It's best to have excess returns next year, but I'm more focused on positive returns.
And now at this valuation, there is a high probability that there will still be a double-digit absolute return next year.
The dividend return itself, as well as the potential price increase expectations, the logic of capacity expansion, and the increase in the dividend ratio, are all the driving forces for the stock price to rise.
Capacity expansion: At present, there is still a lot of backward production capacity, and there were several safety accidents in the fourth quarter of this year.
Therefore, even if the total amount of the industry remains unchanged, the production capacity of some companies will increase after the elimination of backward production capacity.
Expectation of price increases: One of the reasons for the current rise in coal prices is that the proportion of guaranteed supply is too high, and the proportion of guaranteed supply will be reduced next year.
In addition, some scarce varieties (coking coal, anthracite) are also sold at guaranteed supply prices, which are much lower than the market price, so the price increase can be expected next year.
Increase the dividend ratio: At present, the dividend ratio of many companies is still less than 60%.
However, their asset-liability ratio is not high, and their cash flow is relatively abundant, so they can further increase the dividend ratio.
Moreover, the major shareholder of these companies is generally the local SASAC, and increasing the dividend ratio can also alleviate the local financial pressure.
Finally, from the perspective of funds, insurance, social security and other funds are one of the few sources of incremental funds next year.
The cost of their liabilities is 3%-4% (dividend insurance), so high-dividend companies with high dividend ratios and stable dividends will be more sought after.
For example, the asset management company established by Chinese Life and Xinhua Insurance invested 50 billion yuan, and the first investment direction was high dividends.
Funds related to heavy coal are Wanjia Macro Multi-Strategy, China Merchants Antai Balance, Zhongtai Dividend Preferred One-Year, and Invesco Great Wall State-owned Enterprise Value, which can be used for reference.
In terms of index funds, there are Huabao S&P China A-share dividend opportunities.
Three
Recently, the world has been in turmoil.
Today, news broke that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea conflict between the Houthis in Yemen have not yet ended, and the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been killed again.
It is very important to find the anchor in your heart.
The anchor I found was the company's dividend cash flow.
As long as the company's dividend cash flow remains roughly stable, or even grows every year, it would be great if the "10-year dividend can recover the cost" is satisfied.
The problem now is that there are not many listed companies that can look at 10 years, and there are very few that meet the requirements of "10 years of dividends can recover costs".
Looking at companies with dividend yields of more than 10%, and worrying about unstable earnings, they will not survive for 10 years.
So my current stock holdings are still relatively diversified.
The world is in turmoil, and it has nothing to do with me.
The garbage company has nothing to do with me.
The IPO financing amount is the first in the world, and it has nothing to do with me.
Recently, the big state-owned banks have cut interest rates again, and I believe that there will be more and more big money that will start chasing the opportunity for high dividends.
My goal is to earn 6 million, so that even if I only have a dividend yield of 5% per year, I will have an income of 300,000 a year, and I will be basically well-off.
In the future, if you are fortunate enough to make a stable profit, and the profit basically covers the cost of living, then the road to career investment is not far away.
Finally, do you still have confidence at the moment, leave a message to chat.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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