The article is about 2200 words in total, and it is expected to take about 7 minutes.
Only you can't think of it, you can't do it without you. Sri Lanka's default was followed by another country defaulting on its debt: Ethiopia. It can be said that the dollar tide is gradually showing its power. However, whether it is Sri Lanka or Ethiopia, it is only a matter of passing for the United States, and the United States has always had its eyes on Asia.
When Yellen called for us to open the door to overseas capital, the United States also issued a warning to Vietnam, and even asked Vietnam to open the door? Vietnam is about to become a copy of India and be harvested by the United States?
Capital retreats, but it will also be harvested?
As soon as the first foot raised the relations between the two countries to the highest level, the second foot issued an ultimatum to Vietnam, will the US fox tail finally be exposed? Will Vietnam be another country in Asia that has fallen?
The more dangerous the United States, the more crazy it becomes. And now the United States has indeed reached the most dangerous moment. On January 3, the U.S. Treasury Department released a report showing that the U.S. national debt has now reached $34 trillion. At the same time, the United States is running out of money on its own.
In other words, the United States must continue to raise the debt ceiling, or the US authorities will shut down again. So, with such a high level of debt, the United States does not have enough to spend, and it will continue to borrow money, and can the United States still borrow money?
I think it's very difficult, because now everyone is finding that the United States is acting more and more crazy, and 2024 is still an election year in the United States, which means that it is time for the United States to talk again, and it is difficult to say who will be elected. What's more, Trump, as a former president, personally said that if he is not elected, the US economy will collapse.
That is to say, the current US economy looks like there is not much of a problem on the outside, and the stock market is still singing and dancing, but behind it is an undercurrent, and this requires the United States to make up for its own holes through harvesting.
In fact, Europe is relatively wealthy, and Asia and the Middle East are relatively rich, but now the United States cannot turn its face with the Middle East, Europe has already been harvested, and the only thing left is Asia.
In Asia, the United States naturally wants to harvest the most important thing, but can the United States do it now? I think it will be very difficult because we have been preparing for the dollar tide for a long time, so the United States has gradually set its sights on Vietnam and so on.
And we all know that in the confrontation between China and the United States in recent years, India and Vietnam have reaped dividends, so we see that Vietnam's economic growth is very fast. This year, however, the United States suddenly changed its attitude and published the "Report on Vietnam's Investment Environment." Here, the United States counts Vietnam's various faults, and is openly and secretly asking Vietnam to open its door.
And we know that the United States is now opening the door just to facilitate the entry and exit of Wall Street's capital.
And according to the relevant data, we can see that since the third quarter of this year, Vietnam's exports have decreased by about 7.2% year-on-year, and this has been two consecutive quarters of decline. As we all know about Vietnam, it is mainly export-oriented, that is, the decline in exports will inevitably lead to a decrease in investment.
Sure enough, according to relevant data, in the first half of this year, FDI investment in Vietnam fell by 4.3% compared with last year, and the amount also decreased to 13.43 billion US dollars, and the investment of foreign capital so far has decreased by nearly 4% year-on-year. In other words, foreign capital is not only not increasing investment, but is also withdrawing.
Since the beginning of this year, Vietnam's central bank has cut financing and discount rates by nearly 150 basis points in response to the decline in India's exports and reduced investment, which means that Vietnam is also protecting its industry against the trend and at the same time making profits.
However, the effect is not obvious. Vietnam's GDP this year is only 5.05%, compared to 8.02% last year, which is a big decline, and this figure is even lower than the previous decade's 5.8%, so the Vietnamese economy faces significant risks.
And this is just economic data, and Vietnam is even more at risk in the financial sector. We know that the main object of Vietnam's exports is Europe and the United States, and now the interest rate hike in Europe and the United States will naturally hit Vietnam's exports, which will accelerate Vietnam's foreign investment, relatively speaking, accompanied by the depreciation of Vietnam's currency and the rapid growth of debt repayment pressure.
While debt is growing, the most feared thing is capital outflows. According to relevant data, the investment of international capital in Vietnam has decreased by nearly 30% compared with last year, and this scale has exceeded 980 trillion VND. And this series of recessions has directly led international institutions to list Vietnam as one of the countries most in need of fiscal consolidation, that is, Vietnam has been blacklisted by international institutions.
At the same time, analysts at European institutions are even more bearish on Vietnam, reducing Vietnam's stock market index to around 1200, while the previous general expectations were around 1400.
China-Vietnam cooperation is the way forward
China offers the world another option, and since the United States has chosen to harvest, it is possible to cooperate with China to better reduce or even avoid being harvested by the United States.
We know that in the past, if you wanted to develop, you had to join the dollar system, otherwise it would be very difficult for the country to develop. So every dollar tide is almost inevitable for small countries. And today, other countries have another option, which is to strengthen cooperation with China.
We know that the essence of the U.S. harvest is to lower interest rates and provide large loans to small countries, and at the same time expand American imports, so that small countries can quickly expand through debt and build factories. And then by raising interest rates, raising the cost of debt servicing, and at the same time reducing US imports and suppressing the exports of small countries, there will eventually be an outflow of capital.
That is what we often call the transition from reality to virtuality, and the bankruptcy of enterprises. Workers lost their jobs as well as currency depreciation and soaring inflation. Because of the existence of dollar oil, many countries have fallen under the chain of the United States.
Today, China has become the world's largest consumer market, and other small countries can cooperate more with China to sell their goods to China, thereby mitigating the sharp decline in exports. At the same time, they can also cooperate with us to carry out debt swaps so as to avoid being harvested.
For example, using RMB to repay international borrowings. Therefore, the scale of Vietnam's debt today has reached about 208.6 billion US dollars, while foreign exchange reserves have fallen to 87.2 billion US dollars, that is, the gap here has reached about 120 billion US dollars. Therefore, the crisis in Vietnam is already urgent.
If the United States steps up, Vietnam could default on its debt in an instant. After all, Vietnam's economy is driven by foreign investment, such as South Korea's Samsung and so on. Behind these companies are controlled by Western capital, so Vietnam seems to be calm, but in fact, there are always hidden worries behind it.
Moreover, Vietnam's top officials have also said that Vietnam is faced with the pursuit of quantity rather than quality, and if the global market is shut down, then export-oriented Vietnam may return to its pre-liberation period overnight, or even return its economy to 20 years ago.
It can be said that this is not groundless. Because the export-oriented economic model is such a threat, and Vietnam is still anchored in Europe and the United States, it is difficult for Vietnam, and only cooperation with China is the direction, but also the future.
What do you think about this? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss!
It's not easy to insist on originality, remember to like and follow, and share more exciting content!