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In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

1. CBN China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index

On January 2, 2024, the CBN China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) was 1.09, an increase of 0.09 from December 26, 2024, and the index continued to rise. In the week ending January 2, all positive indicators except the "coastal coal freight index" were higher. Among them, the service-related indicator "8 cities subway traffic index" rose by 0.07 to 1.16, and the "30 cities commercial housing sales index" reached a maximum of 0.81 in the middle of the week.

Fig. 1 China's high-frequency economic activity index

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

Source: CBN Research Institute

Second, the overall judgment of the weekly situation

Billet prices continued to move higher this week, rising 0.27% in the week ended January 2, up 1.65% over the past month and down 1.60% from the same period last year. Cement prices have retreated, falling 0.41% in the week ended January 2, 0.18% over the past month and 19.99% on the same period last year. Thermal coal prices have fallen by 0.14% over the past month and by 0.27% from a year earlier.

In the week ended January 2, the central bank withdrew 248 billion yuan of net funds through the open market. The overnight bank rate rose 15 basis points in the week ended Jan. 2, falling 2 basis points over the past month and down 130 basis points from a year earlier. The seven-day repo rate has fallen 225 basis points over the past week, 5 basis points over the past month, and 90 basis points over the same period last year.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2023. In December 2023, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and has been lower for three consecutive months. In terms of the size of enterprises, in December 2023, the PMI of large, medium and small manufacturing industries was lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the PMI of large enterprises was at the line of prosperity and withering (50.0%), and the prosperity level was consistent with that of the previous month, while the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.7% and 47.3% respectively.

Among the sub-indicators, the new orders index and the new export orders index continued to fall in December 2023, falling by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 48.7% and 45.8%, respectively. On the supply side, the production index fell to 50.2% from 50.7% in the previous month, but it is still in expansion territory. The factory price index accelerated to 47.7% from 48.2% in the previous month, as production activities remained buoyant. In terms of raw materials, the purchase prices of major raw materials have continued to rise since July 2023, and the index rose to 51.5% in December 2023 from 50.7% in the previous month. In this context, the purchase volume and raw material inventory index decreased by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 49.0% and 47.7%, respectively, and the purchase volume and raw material inventory accelerated the reduction.

In December 2023, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of industries, the PMI of the construction industry increased by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month to 56.9%, and the rapid recovery of the prosperity level of the construction industry was an important reason for the accelerated expansion of the non-manufacturing industry in the month. Among the sub-indicators of the construction industry, in December 2023, with the recovery of demand, the new orders index rebounded to more than 50.0%, and the employment index also rose from 48.2% to 51.7%, the highest level since March 2023. In December 2023, the PMI of the services sector was 49.3%, unchanged from the previous month and still in the contraction range.

3. Weekly data (2023.12.27-2024.1.2)

1. Central bank monetary operations

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

2. Interest rates and social financing

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

3. Corporate Sector

1) Secondary sector

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

2) Shipping

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

3) Real estate market

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

4. Global perspective

In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro
In December 2023, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were active, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated High frequency to look at the macro

(Source of the title map of this article: Yicai)

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Text | Li Jiayi is a researcher at the China Business Research Institute

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