Investment advisory support|Yu Xiaoming, editor|Gu Jinfeng
Source: Jufeng Investment Advisory, Good Stock Application
The continental dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearing industry is still in the growth period, and there is still a lot of room for expansion in the application field of products, and the industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend in the future. Today, let's take a look at the company's investment logic.
In the growth period of domestic dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearings, energy power generation + industrial drive and other multi-point flowering
The continental dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearing industry is still in the growth period, and there is still a lot of room for expansion in the application field of products, and the industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend in the future. According to the forecast of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the average annual compound growth rate of the market size of dynamic oil film sliding bearings in China from 2020 to 2026 will be about 13%.
The downstream demand is strong, and the energy power generation + industrial drive is flowering: the safety requirements in the field of energy power generation - nuclear power are extremely high, and they have been dependent on imports, and there is a large space for import substitution in domestic sliding bearings;
Driven by the large-scale wind turbine, the "localization + sliding rolling" of wind power bearings is expected to accelerate
The localization rate of wind power bearings is still low. At present, the main shaft bearings and gearbox bearings in the domestic wind power industry mainly use rolling bearings, relying on imported overseas brands such as SKF, NSK, FAG, etc. The company is an authorized distributor of SKF, with the rapid growth of market demand in the field of wind power, the scale of the company's distribution of SKF rolling bearings business has been on the rise in recent years. Wind power gearbox bearings have great potential to "roll instead of slide", and the company's dynamic oil film sliding bearings are expected to benefit. Ultra-large wind turbines are an effective measure to achieve grid parity for wind power (for every 10% increase in wind turbine diameter, the power generation of the whole turbine will increase by more than 8%), and the development of super-large wind turbines has become a significant trend of wind turbines. If the wind power gearbox with a power of more than 10MW still uses rolling bearings, the excessive radial size of the bearing will lead to the increase of fatigue peeling and wear of the inner and outer rings of the bearing, raceway and ball, which will restrict the cost-effectiveness and reliability of the gearbox. In contrast, sliding bearings have the advantages of small radial size, strong bearing capacity and low cost, and can be applied to wind power main bearing gearboxes, which can significantly improve the torque density of wind power gearboxes and reduce the unit torque cost.
Nuclear power, ships and other fields supporting bearings in the forefront of the country
The company's dynamic oil film sliding bearings effectively solve the supporting bottlenecks of host customers in key areas with extreme working conditions and special environmental requirements in the fields of nuclear power, wind power, and ships, and help improve the autonomy rate of major equipment such as advanced nuclear power technology and equipment, ship electric propulsion systems, heavy-duty gas turbines and "ethylene three engines" in the mainland.
Today bring such a dynamic pressure oil film bearing faucet,
1. The Company's dynamic oil film sliding bearing products mainly focus on energy power generation, industrial drive, petrochemical industry and shipbuilding and other fields.
2. The company has the core self-developed technology of high-speed sliding shaft of dynamic pressure oil film, and has strong technical barriers.
3. The downstream fields of wind power, nuclear power, thermal power and industrial drive have strong demand, and the logic of domestic substitution is strong.
Introduction and main business of Schunk Technology
The dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearing products independently developed by Schunk Technology mainly focus on energy power generation, industrial drive, petrochemical industry and shipbuilding, and are the key basic components of major equipment and high-precision equipment such as heavy-duty gas turbines, large steam turbines, wind power generation equipment, high-efficiency compressors, high-speed motors, pumps and gearboxes. The company is an internationally competitive core key basic parts manufacturing enterprises, its products have strong bearing capacity, high rotation precision, long service life and other characteristics, in the main technical parameters are not lower than RENK, Waukesha, Miba, Kingsbury, Michell and other internationally renowned enterprises similar products, the main performance indicators have reached the international advanced level. As a well-known enterprise in the field of sliding bearings in China, the company has presided over or participated in the drafting of 14 relevant national standards in the field of sliding bearings, and continues to adhere to technological innovation, the company has 158 patents, including 31 invention patents.
The concept to which Schunk Technology stock belongs
PEEK material concept, Hunan plate, sub-IPO, general equipment, institutional heavy position, nuclear energy, nuclear power, wind energy, margin financing and securities lending, GEM comprehensive, registration-based sub-IPO.
What is the status of Schunk Technology in the industry?
In terms of operating income, Schunk Technology is lower than the industry average, ranking 341st in the industry.
What is the basic situation of Schunk Technology's stock issuance?
The total share capital of Schunk Technology is 60 million shares, of which the number of outstanding A shares is 15 million shares. As of April 25, the total market capitalization was 3,034.8 million, the circulating market capitalization was 758.7 million yuan, and the price-earnings ratio was 29.99. The number of shareholders is 8,500. The largest shareholder is Zhou Shaohua, with the top ten shareholders accounting for 78.1% of the shares.
What about Schunk Technology stock financials?
According to the 2023 annual report, the total revenue of Schunk Technology was 135 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 20 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.53% in total revenue and a year-on-year increase in attributable net profit of -32.89%.
As of December 31, 2023, by industry, the operating income of industrial drive was 309 million, with a revenue ratio of 59.12%, and the operating income of energy power generation was 145 million, with a revenue ratio of 27.79%.
Executive profiles
Zhou Shaohua: male, born in 1962, Chinese nationality, no right of permanent residence abroad, graduated from Naval University of Engineering with a master's degree in electrical engineering. From 1982 to 1984, he served as a technician of Xiangdian Electric No. 2 Branch, from 1984 to 1992, as an employee of Xiangtan Electric Machinery Factory Import and Export Company, from 1993 to 1995 as the manager of the Hong Kong office of Xiangtan Electric Machinery Group, from 1996 to 1998 as the general manager of Hunan Chongmao Machinery Equipment Co., Ltd., and from 1999 to 2003 as the chairman of Hunan Chongde Machinery Equipment Co., Ltd. General Manager, General Manager of Schunk Co., Ltd. from 2003 to 2013, General Manager of Schunk Co., Ltd. and Schunk Technology Co., Ltd. from 2016 to July 2021, Chairman and Legal Representative of Schunk Co., Ltd. and Schunk Technology Co., Ltd. since 2003, and Chairman of Tribo since August 2014.
Schunk Technology: A leading provider of dynamic oil film bearing solutions
Schunk Technology is a leading high-end industrial service enterprise engaged in industrial transmission products, services and application technology in China, and its products are widely used in high-end equipment in key fields such as energy power generation, industrial drive, petrochemical industry and shipbuilding due to their high performance.
Since 2020, the company's operating income and net profit have shown a growing trend, and in the first three quarters of 2023, the operating income increased by 21% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 33% year-on-year.
Based on independent research and development, the company realizes domestic substitution
The product customization attribute is obvious, the company is based on independent research and development, and its manufacturing, testing and testing capabilities are among the leading in the domestic industry. At present, all kinds of dynamic oil film sliding bearings independently developed in the field of nuclear power have been widely used in nuclear power plants that have been built and under construction at home and abroad; in the field of wind power, the factory type test of gearbox sliding bearings within 500mm has been completed; and the products in the field of industrial drive have gradually replaced other international manufacturers, and are in batches matched in compressors, steam turbines, high-speed petrochemical pumps and other products of internationally renowned enterprises. In 2020, the market share of the domestic dynamic oil film sliding bearing market will be about 5.57%.
The company's R&D and design capabilities of slip shafts have been continuously improved
The company has built up the forward design capability of the sliding shaft, developed a new structure of bearings and passed a full set of tests and successfully applied for patents, conquered the laser cladding additive process, and built the world's first fully automatic laser cladding production line, which is the only enterprise in China that mass-produces laser cladding wind power sliding bearings. In addition, the company also combined its own R&D and production advantages in the field of sliding bearings to extend the industrial chain to the field of permanent magnet high-speed motors, added 8 new regular customers during the year, and developed 6 new applications in MVR steam compressors, pharmaceuticals, aero engine testing, differential pressure power generation, lithium-ion materials, and oxygen production. Pay attention to the performance of downstream high-prosperity industries such as nuclear power and wind power. In February 24, the company won the bid for the procurement project of Fujian Fuqing Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. No. 5 and No. 6 steam turbine bearing reliability improvement project, which is the company's first direct contract with the end user for the research and development of nuclear power turbine bearings, Fuqing Nuclear Power Unit 5/6 is the first reactor of Hualong No. 1 nuclear power technology, and the project enriches the supply types of the company's nuclear power sliding bearings. In 22 and 23 years, the National Standing Committee has continuously approved 10 nuclear power units, combined with the nuclear power construction cycle, it is expected that the next two years will usher in the peak period of nuclear power equipment delivery, and the company's nuclear power sliding bearing business is expected to achieve rapid growth. According to the company's annual report, the operating cost of other products increased by 79.48% year-on-year in 23 years, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of 275.43% in the operating income of wind power gearbox sliding bearings. In addition, the company is also actively expanding other gearbox and OEM customers in addition to Envision, as the restrictions on key offshore wind projects in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other sea-wind provinces have begun to be lifted, it is expected that the penetration rate of wind power gearbox sliding shafts is also expected to further increase.
Investment opportunities
Caixin Securities believes that the company has the core self-developed technology of dynamic pressure oil film high-speed sliding shaft, and has strong technical barriers. It is expected that the company's revenue in 2024-2026 will be 6.39/7.92/997 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.35/1.68/220 million yuan, the EPS will be 2.26/2.80/3.66 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 20.11/16.21/12.39 times. Give 24 years of 25-30 times PE, the target price range is 56.5-67.8 yuan.
Tianfeng Securities believes that the company's revenue in 23-25 years is expected to be 5.30/6.74/852 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%/27%/26%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.08/1.43/183 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%/32%/28%. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, combined with the company's advantages, a certain premium is given, 24-year PE25x, corresponding to a market value of 3.6 billion yuan, and a target price of 59.58 yuan per share.
Enlightenment Today
The stock is sold because the company's fundamentals are deteriorating, not because the sky is falling. – Peter Lynch
Risk Warning
R&D process and industrialization are less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, downstream growth rate is less than expected, and the calculation is subjective and for reference only.
source
Caixin Securities-Schunk Technology-301548. SZ-23 Annual Report Comments: High dividends in the first year of listing, stable profitability, focus on nuclear power, wind power and other downstream prosperity to cash in-20240423
Tianfeng Securities-Schunk Technology-301548. SZ-Dynamic pressure oil film sliding shaft faucet, opening up the growth space with sliding instead of rolling + localization - 20240311
Huaxin Securities-Schunk Technology-301548. SZ-Company Dynamic Research Report: Dynamic Pressure Oil Film Sliding Bearing Leader, Wind Power Bearing "Localization + Sliding Rolling" has great potential - 20231207
(Investment advisory support: Yu Xiaoming, practicing certificate: A0680622030012)
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operation advice, and you shall operate at your own risk and profit and loss