"Global copper prices have skyrocketed and fallen, why is the key in China's subtle grasp?" Cultural horizontal

Culture Magazine

2024-06-05 14:57Published on the official account of Beijing "Culture Vertical" magazine

✪ Ed Conway

Editor, Sky News, UK

✪ Huinuo (compilation) | Culture is a new media

Since the beginning of this year, copper prices have continued to rise, constantly refreshing record highs, and touched $11,000 / ton on May 20; However, copper prices have started to retreat over the past week as end-user demand remains relatively subdued. In the market, copper prices are often referred to as "Dr. Copper" because their price trends are the best reflection and prediction of the global macroeconomy; China, the world's largest copper market and refining center, is also affected by copper price fluctuations. With the advent of the electric age, the value of copper to human society is more important, and we can't help but think seriously: in the face of surging demand, who controls copper resources? How is it handled? How are these products supplied to the rest of the world?

This paper argues that if reinforced concrete is the skeleton of modern civilization, then copper (wire) is the nervous system; As the power system replaces fossil fuels, our reliance on copper is increasing. Copper for purification of electricity consumes a lot of energy, so the economic model of copper is centered on "refining"; At present, China is the world's leading copper processor, smelting and refining nearly half of the world's copper, and the world's most important supplier of power and electrical equipment.

Upstream, copper mines are also often known for their enormity, most notably in Chile's Chuquicamata: decades of mining have hollowed out a mountain and then dug hundreds of metres of craters in situ. As mining progressed, the difficulty of extracting copper increased, and the amount of stone needed to produce one ton of copper increased from 50 tons in 1900 to 800 tons, the water consumption increased from 75 to 150 cubic meters, and the energy required increased from 250 kWh to more than 4,000 kWh. However, copper prices remained largely unchanged on an inflation-adjusted basis, largely due to more efficient automated equipment and processes (from blasting, mining, crushing to electrorefining) and the discovery of more new occurrences.

Among them, deep-sea mining has gone from a "concept" to a practical action that countries compete for. Polymetallic nodules, mostly located on the seafloor of the high seas, formed millions of years ago and contain high concentrations of nickel, manganese, cobalt and copper, far exceeding surface deposits; The exploration and development activities are managed by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a United Nations agency. Today, China leads the way in deep-sea prospecting areas, with four ISA contracts; South Korea, Russia, Germany, France and the United Kingdom also have reserves. The United States is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and is therefore not governed by the ISA – it has occupied many small islands in the Pacific and Oceania through the Guano Island Act of 1856, allowing it to prospect directly around its exclusive economic zone on its own. However, the authors also point out that the best sites for deep-sea mining may be at the heart of marine ecosystems, and that blind mining is risky. In contrast, a preferable option for humanity may be to increase the recycling of tailings, waste ores, and raw materials.

本文为文化纵横新媒体原创编译系列“关键产业与关键资源之变”之八，摘译自Ed Conway著《材料世界：塑造现代文明的六大原材料》（Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization，Published in 2023 by Knopf）。 文章仅代表作者观点，供读者参考辨析。

Copper: an "inexhaustible" scarce resource

▍Electricity and Copper: The Nervous System of the Modern World

"I solemnly tell you that having God's love in your heart is the greatest, and having electricity in your home is the second greatest."

This is a speech given by a farmer in rural Tennessee at a church in the early 40s of the 20th century. His farm, which had only recently been electrified, often sits on the hillside, gazing in amazement at the lights in his home, barn and bacon room.

This story is one of many of the many of its time, as electricity quickly and profoundly changed people's lives, spreading from cities to rural areas. Over the past few centuries, our standard of living has undergone many revolutions, but few have been as sudden and welcoming as electricity. And the material that made this revolution possible was copper.

Copper has a unique charm. This shiny metal is both a symbol of antiquity and the key to the future of humanity. Robert Friedland, the billionaire founder of Ivanhoe Mines, once said that "every solution points to copper" because of the world's ecological and environmental problems. Although many other metals have been discussed, such as the battery materials cobalt, nickel, and the rare earth metal neodymium, no other material can match the importance of copper. Few metals combine the ability to conduct heat and electricity, natural ductility, strength, corrosion resistance, and recyclability.

Copper is the cornerstone of modern civilization and is the equivalent of the nervous system. It underpins every aspect of our lives, even though it is often hidden from view. As the power system replaces fossil fuels, our reliance on copper is increasing.

Electricity is an intangible and powerful resource, and copper is an integral part of it. Since Faraday's invention, we have been using copper to generate electricity. Modern turbines, whether nuclear, thermal or wind, geothermal and hydroelectric, rely on copper coils and electromagnets. Although solar panels do not generate electricity through copper coils, they also contain a lot of copper inside. In short, copper is at the heart of power infrastructure.

It's important to note that copper isn't the only metal that conducts electricity. Aluminum is often used in high-altitude power lines because of its light weight, while silver is even more conductive than copper, with excellent ductility despite its lack of strength. This reminds us that the accessibility of materials is just as important as concrete or steel. Copper, while less common than iron, is much more abundant than silver, and humans have far more experience in mining and refining copper than any other industrial metal.

▍Civilization Evolution: From the "Bronze Age" to the Pure Copper World

Before iron was widely used, it was discovered that copper and tin combined to produce a stronger and harder alloy that was more suitable for making tools. Bronze tools enabled our ancestors to hunt, build, and fight. However, the true "Bronze Age" did not arrive until more than 200 years ago.

(1) From South Wales to China: Based on refining the "World Copper Capital"

Over the years, the centre of the copper trade has shifted, from Cyprus to Israel, to Rio Tinto in Spain and Kopparberg in Sweden. In Sachsen, Germany, local artisans developed strict trade norms and established the first mining schools, which gradually professionalized the mining industry.

By the mid-19th century, Britain produced more than half of the world's copper, mostly from the soil-rich mines of Cornwall. Despite the very high purity of Cornwall's ore, the UK's leadership in the copper trade also benefits from its extensive use of copper.

At that time, Britain had a weapons industry that sold weapons to the world, relying in particular on high-quality bronze. In the 18th century, the British Navy began cladding their hulls (copper bottoms) with copper, making them faster and more maneuverable, able to stay at sea longer, and resist rot and fouling in warm waters. The copper bottom was one of the early technologies of the Maritime Age, helping Britain to dominate the seas. This spurred a huge demand for copper, as a typical 74-gun battleship required 14 tons of copper to cover the hull.

So, where does this copper come from? The answer is South Wales, a place where there is almost no copper.

Although Swansea, South Wales, produces little copper, it has become the 'Copperopolis of the world'. The story shows an economic model that is still in use today, foreshadowing the early forms of globalization.

Before the 19th century, metal smelting depended entirely on geological conditions. The ore is mined and smelted locally, using local wood as fuel. But from the 1820s onwards, the pattern changed.

At the beginning of the 18th century, Swansea's industrialists saw an opportunity. Although Swansea does not have many copper mines, it has abundant coal resources, and it takes 3 tons of coal per tonne of ore to smelt copper. As a result, miners began transporting the ore to Swansea for refining. Swansea's refining efficiency was so high that it quickly beat most other refineries in the world. Ore is shipped here from all over the world, including Cuba, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, and Peru. In its heyday, Swansea refined about 65% of the world's copper.

Within 5 miles of downtown, there are 36 coal mines, 12 copper refineries and other metal processing plants that emit sulphurous fumes and are surrounded by huge scrap heaps. This once green, picturesque valley is now one of the most developed, industrialised and polluted areas in the UK.

As the 19th century progressed, Swansea's dominance in the copper trade waned and eventually collapsed. Large mines in the United States began refining copper themselves, leading to the gradual closure of refineries in Wales. In modern financial markets, metal prices are based on a three-month lead time, a practice that dates back to a time when it took three months to ship copper from Chile to Swansea.

However, Swansea's true heritage is not in South Wales. China was the first country to embrace the "Swansea model", proving that it can dominate metal production even without abundant mineral resources. Today, China is the world's leading copper processor, smelting and refining nearly half of the world's copper.

Another reason for the decline of the Welsh copper industry is the changing use of copper. While one might think that all kinds of copper are similar, in reality, copper from Swansea is suitable for laying ship hulls or making bronze and brass, but it is not suitable for the needs of the electric age.

(2) The Electric Age: The world needs "purer" copper

The history of electrification is not only driven by scientists, but also closely linked to the availability of copper.

In the mid-19th century, when the United States began to erect telegraph lines between cities and planned transatlantic cables, the reverberatory furnaces in Swansea produced copper that barely met demand. But with the advent of the electric age, when Edison and Westinghouse, Jr. built the world's first power stations in London and New York, Welsh copper was found to be poorly conductive. This is similar to the problem encountered by early semiconductor manufacturers: the more impure the atomic structure of the material, the more difficult it is for electrons to pass through.

While Edison was looking for better copper, miners found a solution through electrolytic refining. Electrolytic copper is of higher purity to meet the needs of advanced electric motors and generators.

This new technology is a fatal blow to Swansea's refinery, but it is timely for the burgeoning power industry. As the power generated by power stations, such as the Niagara Falls hydroelectric power plant, increases, so does the current that refiners can pass through the electrolyzer, producing more ultrapure copper. With the help of this virtuous circle, entrepreneurs such as Edison laid a network of wires in American cities and around the world.

Edison was always concerned about the price of copper, and he realized that in order to achieve electrification, it was necessary not only to make light bulbs and appliances, but also to build the corresponding electrical infrastructure, which required a lot of copper. From cables under the streets of New York, to electrical wiring in homes and workplaces, to copper wires on generators, the demand for copper is enormous. Even if the price of copper falls, the amount of copper needed will be enough to threaten his business. As a result, he designed light bulbs that could use thinner copper wires and optimized New York's electricity network to reduce reliance on blister copper trunks. However, his system works well in densely populated urban centers, but power wanes when a mile away.

For further afield, Westinghouse and Tesla offer a solution, which is alternating current. Unlike direct current, which flows in one direction with Edison, alternating current pulsates like ocean waves. The advantage of alternating current is that it can transmit high voltages over thin wires, which means that copper resources are not depleted and there is no need to build a power station within the community. This has led to the energy system we use today: large power stations that deliver alternating current via high-voltage cables to cities, towns, and rural settlements, including large farms in remote areas. It is a system built on a copper foundation.

▍Kilometer Abyss: A copper mine crater that devours the town

(1) Chuquikamata: The world's largest copper mine

At first glance, Chuquicamata looks like no different from other small towns in northern Chile. On the main street, there are banks, cinemas, libraries, hotels, and playgrounds with slides and swings, as well as puppet models of Pinocchio. There is a small square with a bandstand and a stadium in the center of the town.

However, there are two things that make the town unusual. First, if you walk northeast along the main road, it won't be long before the residential area turns into a huge concrete and corrugated tin warehouse area, surrounded by black ponds, dusty railroad freight yards, and piles of rocks. After passing through the tunnel, you will see a huge crack, and the original summit of the mountain becomes a huge canyon with a bottomless bottom and a steep edge.

This is no ordinary canyon, but the Chuquikamata Copper Mine, a huge cave dug in the mountains of the Atacama Desert. Larger than New York's Central Park and deep enough to completely engulf Dubai's Burj Khalifa, it excavated a volume of earthwork unmatched anywhere in history and is a marvel of modern engineering.

The trucks at the bottom of the pit are barely visible from the ground, but these trucks, made by the Japanese company Komatsu, are among the largest on the planet. The journey from the bottom to the top of the pit takes more than an hour. When the trucks arrive at a nearby hangar, the rock is ground into a powder and then treated with a special liquid solution that helps separate the copper from the rest of the material. After that, some of the powder is smelted and electrolyzed to become an almost pure copper plate, the cathode. The remaining dark granular soil, which contains about 30% copper, is copper concentrate, which is sent elsewhere to be refined into a finished product.

Every day, a train loaded with copper cathode and copper concentrate travels along the railway, famous for its saltpeter wars, to the coast. The copper cathode is sent to the manufacturer, while the copper concentrate is loaded onto a container ship and shipped to China for refining. In China, Chilean copper is refined into pure copper, and their original origin is unknown.

About 80% of the world's copper is produced in this way, far from where it is mined, making it difficult to trace the origin of these metals. Most of the world's copper products are made from a mixture of copper atoms from around the globe: Chile, Australia, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and recovered from early mining. Every copper plate is the embodiment of globalization.

There is some controversy about which mine is the largest on the planet. If measured by the amount of metal extracted from a single site, an iron ore mine in Australia, Brazil or Russia could surpass Chuquikamata. But because iron ore is much more concentrated than copper ore, containing about 60% iron per tonne of iron ore, while copper ore contains less than 0.6% copper, mining copper requires moving more soil. According to my rough estimates, copper mining causes more surface disturbances than any other metal, although the amount of metal produced is much smaller.

Today, Escondida produces more copper per year, and it is located a few hundred miles south of the Atacama region. Bingham Canyon in Utah is technically deeper, but Chuquikamata was a mountain until it was dug into a deep pit with its own microclimate. When measured by the amount of copper mined over the life of the mine, Chuquikamata is unbeatable. At least 13 grams of copper in the world comes from here.

Over the past century, countless companies and business empires have risen and fallen, the electricity and computer ages have risen, and electric vehicles have begun to replace gasoline vehicles. But Chuki Kamata has always stood tall, digging billions of tons of rock from the ground year after year to refine it into hundreds of thousands of tons of pure copper. This little-known mine produced the copper that fueled the 20th century, contributed to China's rise, and will help us build clean energy infrastructure to eliminate carbon emissions for decades to come.

The world produces more copper each year than any mine has ever mined. Think of the huge pit of Chuqui Kamata that dwarfs the Cortez gold mine in Nevada by just a small pit.

(2) How mining "swallows" an area

Back on the main street of Chuqui Kamata, you will find some strange phenomena. The playground was empty, the stadium was silent, and there was no queue in front of the bank. The town looks quaint, but it's empty. Chuquikamata is actually another ghost town in the Atacama Desert. Unlike the abandoned gold mining log cabins in Nevada or the old saltpeter towns on the plains beyond, this is a cautionary tale of the future.

Chuquikamata was abandoned not because the mine was closed or the ore was depleted, but because the mine was constantly expanding. As the excavator dug deeper and moved more and more land, mountains of rock, gravel and tailings began to erode the town.

By the beginning of the 21st century, the mine was named "Murder Chuki" when the waste rock of Chuki Kamata began to encroach on houses and gardens, and toxic gases drifted from the refinery, causing illness to the residents. In the years that followed, the state-owned company Codelco relocated all 20,000 residents to Calama, providing them with new homes and schools. By 2008, Chuki Kamata was uninhabited and the town was deserted.

To the north of Chuquikamata, you'll see huge piles of rubble, known locally as "cakes", that have swallowed up a quarter of the houses and shops. A hospital that was once the most advanced in Latin America is now also buried by rubble. Chukikamata is not the only town to be swallowed up by mines, and Sweden's Kiruna iron ore mine has also forced the town to relocate.

During my visit in 2022, I witnessed blasting, where hundreds of tons of rock were detonated at the bottom of the pit, and the seismic waves and noise were very noticeable even from a kilometer away. Waste rock is loaded onto trucks and slowly crawls out of the pit, which is the norm every day. A small portion of it will become copper or copper concentrate, and the rest will pile up into a "cake" that will devour the town.

The waste rock mountain of Chukikamata is just one part of the environmental impact. The mine is in the spotlight for its large amount of water used in an extremely arid environment. Large-scale ore mining and processing requires a lot of water, and the more rock you treat, the more water you need.

Most of the water is used to spray on plastic film on crushed ore piles, which are soaked in a dilute acidic solution, which is the heap leaching method, but on a larger scale. The solution is discharged from the bottom and sent to the next stage of the refinery. The land here is watered not to inject life, but to extract wealth.

Over time, mines are working to reduce water consumption, and some are starting to use seawater. But in addition to the carbon footprint and the water footprint, there is another footprint that should not be ignored. Leaving Chuquicamata, passing by the mines of Ministro Jarez and Calama, along the road to San Pedro, you will see a high earthen wall behind which the truth is hidden.

This is the Chukikamata tailings dam, where waste from the refining process is transported and accumulated. Considering that it has accumulated mud from the largest copper mine on Earth for decades, the dam is huge. The official name of the pile is Talabre, which is a reminder that it was once a salt lake. Today, all the salt is covered in a gray-brown mud rich in molybdenum and arsenic, an area the size of Manhattan.

Although the status quo still needs to be improved, there is significant progress compared to the past. In the past, wastewater from the Atacama mine flowed directly into the valleys and canals, eventually polluting the ocean. To this day, 220 trillion tonnes of copper ore waste still accumulate in the bay of Chanalal port, creating a 10-kilometre-long artificial beach that has led to the death of a large number of wildlife. Although judicial intervention stopped the dumping in 1989, the contamination penetrated into the water and air of the local population, and even elevated levels of nickel, lead and arsenic were detected in the urine of men.

There is controversy between local residents and miners, who claim that arsenic comes from underground, but mining has undoubtedly exacerbated the problem. A pediatrician in Karama reported an increase in respiratory and allergy problems in children, possibly related to high levels of particulate matter in the air. Still, because copper mining is the backbone of the local economy, almost everyone believes that the mine should continue to be mined.

But it also presents a challenge: What will happen in the future as mines like Chuki get deeper and the abundant ore that can be easily mined is depleted? The world's growing demand for copper for generators, electric vehicles, wind turbines, etc., will we run out of this resource?

▍The paradox of the century: which comes first, resource depletion or transformation and development?

(1) A bet

In the 70s, there was a bet between academics in the journal Science.

Economist Julian Simon has suggested that he is willing to bet $1,000 or $100 that the cost of raw materials, including grains and oil, that are not controlled by the government, will not rise in the long run.

Nobel laureate Paul Ehrlich was quick to take on the challenge, arguing that the real value of the five critical metals – copper, chromium, nickel, tin and tungsten – would rise between September 29, 1980 and September 29, 1990. These metals are vital to industry, and as the world grows and the population grows, the demand will only increase.

Ehrlich particularly values copper because it is the most scarce of all industrial metals. Copper mining dates back about 10,000 years, and the earliest mining centre, Cyprus, is rich in up to 20% copper ore. But for thousands of years, the purest ore has been almost exhausted, leaving behind even rarer resources. At the time of Ehrlich's bet, the world's copper reserves were barely enough to last for less than 30 years.

Looking back at prices over the past decade, copper has risen 59% and tungsten has risen 357%, and he has reason to be confident. Between 1980 and 1990, however, the inflation-adjusted real price of Ehrlich's chosen metals fell, even as the global population increased from 4.5 billion to 5.3 billion.

In October 1990, Simon received a check for $576.07 from Ehrlich from Palo Alto, California, with an envelope containing a metal price list, no message, and the two never met. Simon died in 1998, and Ehrlich is still depressed to this day. In fact, if the bet had started in either of the 1960s, 1970s, or 2000s, Ehrlich would have won.

The rise of the free market in the '80s made the bet an allegory of a new era: markets were able to solve almost any problem without worrying about the end of the world. But the reality is far more complicated than that.

Ehrlich is not the first and not the last to warn of copper shortages. In the early days of the Electric Age, when Edison was looking for copper, he prophesied that power technology would fail because of its scarcity.

Today, there are still researchers predicting the imminent end of copper production, such as the 2007 Yale study and the 2014 Science article, both predicting that copper supply will decline after 2030. Search for "Copper Peak" and you'll find many similar prophecies.

Despite the limited resources of the earth, the fact that none of the predictions of the past has come true does not mean that the future will not happen. At the same time, the difficulty of mining copper is indeed increasing. In the 18th century, ore from Cornwall often contained more than 12% copper, but by the end of the 19th century it had fallen to less than 8%. At the beginning of the 20th century, many high-quality ores were mined. The same is true of Chuki Kamata. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, early veins contained 10 to 15 percent copper, which was lucrative for miners. But by the beginning of the 20th century, the remaining ore grade had dropped to a few percent.

(2) Why did Ehrlich lose?

There are abundant copper resources underground, but mining and profitably can be a challenge.

The Guggenheim family saw this opportunity. After witnessing the success of Carnegie's giant excavator at the Mesabi iron ore vein, they considered applying the same method to the mining of low-grade metals such as copper. With the assistance of mining engineer Daniel C. Jackling, the Guggenheim family began extracting copper from low-grade ore in Bingham Canyon, Utah, using a steam shovel and large quantities of explosives. Later, they turned their attention to Chile, where the reserves were more abundant, and established a base in Chuqui Camata.

The Guggenheim family transformed the mining industry into a mass production activity, similar to Ford's automobile production in Detroit. They use alchemical techniques to transform worthless rocks into wealth. Chuquikamata became a turning point in the mining industry, ending the era of manual excavation and sorting of rocks. The steam shovels used to dig the Panama Canal were transported to Chile, and huge mills were built to grind the rock into powder and separate copper particles from it.

Eventually, the Guggenheim family sold the mine to Anaconda to produce nitrates. The rate of mining increased further, and the peaks of Chuquikamata were ground into plateaus and then into canyons. As Che Guevara described during his visit in 1951, the sight was awe-inspiring and cold, though not elegant.

Thinking back to the large crater of Chuki Kamata, we have to ask not only why it is so deep, but also how to bear the cost of excavation. Because the deeper you dig, the higher the cost, and the ore grade is decreasing. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the copper content of ore has fallen from 2.4% in 1913 to less than 2% by mid-century and to less than 1% by the end of the century. The difficulty of extracting copper increased, with the amount of stone processed to produce one tonne of copper increasing from 50 to 800 tonnes in 1900, water consumption from 75 to 150 cubic metres, and energy from 250 kWh to more than 4,000 kWh. However, copper prices remained largely unchanged on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Standing on the edge of the Chuquikamata Canyon, you can see the huge trucks at the bottom, larger than the houses, these are very large vehicles introduced in the 80s, and the loading capacity has increased from 40 tons to more than 400 tons. In the mill, the stones are ground into fine powder, and the crushers are arranged in rows. The heap leaching site is so large that it blends in with the desert horizon.

And then there's the part that you can't see. Beneath the Chuquikamata Gorge, Kodelco is mining underground copper, which is not only the world's largest open-pit mine, but is also being transformed into the world's largest underground mine. The concept of "lump mining," in which tunnels are dug under the ore, filled with high explosives, detonated and gravity-infused rocks to collapse and transported out on conveyor belts is impressive.

The two types of mining that are being carried out at the same time are disturbing: open-pit miners blast deep pits on the surface, while at a depth of hundreds of meters underground, another group of people is digging blast holes. Lump mining is a new trend in the mining industry, and Chucky is not the only place where this method is being adopted. At the Grasberg mine in Indonesian New Guinea, miners dig a large hole in the top of the mountain, then dig tunnels inside the mountain to blast and decompose, using driverless trains to transport rock along 23 kilometers of track, which is then refined into gold bars and copper cathodes to power the modern world.

At Glasberg and Chucky, it's not just the scale or the extent to which the environment is being harmed by copper mining, it's another thing: so much work can be done with so little manpower. In the 20th century, the number of people employed in the U.S. copper mining fell by two-thirds, but the amount of copper produced increased more than fourfold.

It can be seen that the first reason for Ehrlich to lose the bet is the increase in production efficiency. In Roman times, it took an average salary of 40 years to buy a ton of pure copper, but by 1800 this figure had dropped to 6 years, and 200 years later to 0.06 years. Gait, a London-based mining investor, believes that this reduction in real prices is the key, reflecting a huge increase in productivity, but an achievement that is little known within the industry.

As the need for manpower to convert raw materials into products decreases, miners are looking for new ways to automate their workflows. The industry's next goal is to make giant trucks and excavators driverless, remotely operating entire operations, sometimes hundreds of miles away. At the control center in Antofagasta, operators control copper mine equipment more than a hundred miles away via monitors and remote control sticks. Trucks in Chuquikamata's new underground mine will also be autonomous.

One benefit of automation is that it reduces the number of people directly operating heavy machinery, which reduces the risk of accidents. But with fewer people involved in production, it's no surprise that little is known about the process of making materials or turning them into products. It is not surprising that we take the material world for granted.

The second reason Ehrlich lost the bet was that our methods of extracting metals were becoming more and more efficient. The mill and bubble flotation machine in Chuquikamata made it possible to mine low-grade ore a century ago. Leaching heap technology is a revolution in hydrometallurgy, which allows copper to be extracted from solution without the need for expensive and polluting furnaces. The electrolysis facility is an innovation of the 80's that converts liquid concentrate into high-purity copper anode plates. These advanced mining techniques and giant trucks help explain why the prophecy of peak copper has not yet come true, and they are key to keeping the modern world running.

The claim that there are only 30 to 40 years left in copper reserves is actually an often misunderstood statistic. Miners refer to reserves as the amount that can be economically mined in their mine or approved mine at any given moment. We have copper reserves for about 30 to 40 years, not because of the limited amount of copper in the ground, but because that's the time frame that the miners are planning.

Despite occasional reports claiming that we will run out of copper resources, the reality is that from 2010 to 2020, 207 million tonnes of copper were mined globally, while total global copper reserves increased by 240 million tonnes. This means that we have increased the supply of this important material at a faster rate than we can mine.

A figure that is more noteworthy than reserves is resource volume, which includes not only the amount that has been planned to be mined, but also the resources that have yet to be discovered. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the world's total copper resources are 5.6 billion tons, of which 2.1 billion tons have been discovered. At current annual consumption, this equates to about 226 years of supply, which would cover about 115 years of demand even during the green energy transition.

(3) So what is the cost?

However, improving the efficiency of mining copper from low-grade deposits means more consumption of the earth's resources. Between 2004 and 2016, Chilean miners increased their annual copper production by only 2.6%, but the amount of ore mined for this increase increased by 75%. These data are not reflected in environmental accounts or material stream analyses, and typically only refined metals are calculated.

With the shift to electrically driven activities, the demand for copper will surge. The share of electricity in energy is expected to rise from 20% to 50% between 2020 and 2050. Automobiles, electric heat pumps, and battery-powered vehicles will replace gas and oil boilers and oil-engine vehicles. The average car already contains about a mile of copper wire, electric cars require three to four times as much copper as the average car, and battery-powered buses require nearly half a ton of copper. The construction of high-speed trains and other green power infrastructure will further increase copper demand. Solar panels and offshore wind require seven and ten times more copper, respectively, than conventional power stations.

The challenge is that we need a lot of copper to achieve our net-zero emissions target. While copper can be recycled, the amount recycled is nowhere near enough. The real challenge is not that copper will run out or become too expensive, but how much blasting and excavation that society can tolerate from mining. South American countries such as Chile and Peru are considering the environmental costs of copper mining and are beginning to impose restrictions, raising concerns about future copper supply.

The beginning of the electric age coincided with a virtuous cycle of mineral abundance, satisfying the copper needs of Edison and Westinghouse. But now, the energy transition could face a vicious circle, with political resistance likely to hinder copper mining and affect the world's efforts to wean itself off fossil fuels.

To meet demand in the coming decades, we may need to build three new mound-scale mines per year. Although our technology for extracting copper from old mines is improving, new discoveries and mine extraction are slowing down, and much of the surface copper may never be mined.

This is a paradox that we have yet to solve: without copper, we will not be able to achieve our net-zero targets. As the demand for electrification increases, explorers are looking for deeper, darker, and more controversial places to mine copper.

▍Deep-sea prospecting: the "last" mining development

(1) Seabed mineral deposits: the end point of the "great geographical discovery".

The world's largest mountain range is hidden beneath sea level and looks as flat as a pancake. This mountain range is longer than the Andes and North American mountain ranges, and in some places even higher than the Himalayas. However, due to its submersion in sea water thousands of meters deep, few people have seen or climbed it.

We are on a Royal Research Ship in the heart of the Atlantic, with the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at our feet. The sea is rough, the trade winds are strong, and the ship and crew are constantly shaking. The deck is filled with busy cranes and heavy machinery. The ship's team of geologists is on a special mission, operating equipment during the day and studying rock samples at night. They came to sea because this is where new lands were formed.

This process is taking place: the North American plate is separating from the Eurasian plate at a rate of about 2.5 centimeters per year, a continuation of the supercontinent Pangea split 200 million years ago. As the two continents separated, volcanic, pillow-shaped lava and magmatic activity filled the void. While most activity is not visible underwater, Iceland is a small part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge outcropping, showcasing volcanoes, lava, and geysers. Imagine that there are more of these abyssal mountains in this straight line of the Earth, on a much larger scale than any terrestrial mountain range.

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge was first discovered by the crew of the HMS Challenger in 1872, and was the first major mission to make seafloor surveys. The mission revealed that the deep sea is not barren, but full of life, with diverse and extreme terrain. While selecting a site for the transatlantic telegraph cable, they realized that they were sailing on a mountain range.

In 1977, in the Galapagos Rift, marine geologists discovered the world's first hydrothermal vent, where volcanoically heated chemical-rich water erupted from a "black chimney" that supported countless exotic creatures. A few decades later, scientists from the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) discovered the "Lost City" at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where naturally occurring strange white chimneys that produced hydrocarbons, the basic building blocks of life, may reveal the secrets of life itself.

These findings show that we don't know enough about the depths of the ocean floor. This is also the significance of the latest mission to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

At the end of February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, which affected the departure of a scientific research ship prepared by a St. Petersburg team. The British Foreign Office prevented Russian scientists who had planned to board the ship to avoid a diplomatic incident. The submarine rock formations that the mission focused on are actually 21st-century underwater treasures, including abundant copper resources. A century and a half ago, the British Royal Navy's Challenger salvaged potato-sized rocks from the Pacific Ocean floor in dark, slightly brittle blocks known as polymetallic nodules. These nodules are ubiquitous on the seafloor in some parts of the Pacific Ocean, particularly in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ).

Polymetallic nodules are formed over millions of years by the accumulation of minerals on fragments of organic matter and contain high concentrations of nickel, manganese, cobalt and copper, far exceeding surface deposits. The discovery of these nodules has revealed a treasure trove of minerals on the seafloor that can meet the raw material needs of humanity for many generations. Although one study showed that there were huge reserves of gold on the seafloor (9 pounds per person, equivalent to $170,000), the cost of obtaining them was too high to be feasible.

However, cobalt-nickel resources on the seabed are particularly important. At present, the global terrestrial cobalt resources are about 25 million tons, mainly distributed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia; The total amount of seabed cobalt has been confirmed to be 120 million tons. There are about 300 million tonnes of nickel resources on land, and about 270 million tonnes of nickel resources in the Clarion-Clipperton region, and the actual total is likely to be even larger.

Copper is often overlooked in such calculations, partly because of the well-established technology for onshore copper mining, and partly because although the Clarion-Clipperton Zone has about 230 million tonnes of copper, it is less influential than cobalt or nickel. The richest copper-rich minerals are found in the black chimneys of the seabed, which pump mineral-rich dark bodies of water along the submarine mountains. When a black chimney collapses, it leaves behind ores with high copper contents, such as chalcopyrite, which can contain up to 20% copper.

Although we have a good understanding of the number of polymetallic nodules on the seafloor, little is known about the amount of macrosulphides on the seafloor. The research team arrives at the Marine Center to explore the small hills that are often overlooked by geologists. The deep-sea drilling rig they carry is one of the few in the world that can withstand the pressure of the seabed at a depth of 3,000 meters. Within a month, they drilled the seabed, collected long cores, and completed seismic surveys. The initial results have come as a surprise to scientists: the amount of mineral deposits there is so large that they could revolutionize our understanding of the amount of copper on the ocean floor.

Research is still ongoing, and it is difficult to determine the specific impact of these data on seabed resource estimates. But this area of the Sargasso Sea – which is not usually covered by seafloor copper resource estimates – may contain tens of millions of tonnes of ore, far more than expected; There may be 20, 30 or even 40 times more ore here than existing estimates.

This means that deep-sea copper resources could exceed 1 billion tonnes, far more than onshore reserves and enough to meet the world's copper needs for decades, without the need to dig out holes such as Chuquikamata. Of course, this also begs the question: is there a risk in such resource extraction?

(2) Waiting for the starting gun: Divide the last resources of the earth

The International Seabed Authority's (ISA) conference center has the feel of an early 007 spy movie, like a time capsule that has been undisturbed for decades. The ISA is a United Nations agency that manages most of the world's seabed and decides who has the right to exploit seabed minerals. According to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, any area of water that exceeds 200 nautical miles of a country's coastline is considered "high seas" and is "the common heritage of all mankind".

The high seas are a diplomatic and economic grey area, and there is little stopping us from using them as dumpsters or sites for overfishing. With advances in diving technology, deep-sea mining has become possible, which raises questions about mining limitations.

For a long time, deep-sea mining seemed like a fantasy, but now there is no doubt about the technical viability. Some even wonder if countries like the United States and Russia are already doing it in secret. This puts the ISA in an awkward position, as it should have control over the vast majority of known resources, including polymetallic nodules, crusts and "black chimneys", which are almost all located beneath the high seas. This little-known institution is the main line of defense to protect deep-sea resources from overexploitation.

When you visit ISA's humble offices near the '70s convention center, you don't feel like it's the focus of global competition for resources, but rather a bit of an empty space. I spoke with the organization's legal representative, who led me through a quiet hallway and into a room with a map of the ocean hanging on the wall. He pointed to the location of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, as well as the sectors assigned by ISA members.

China is leading the way in deep-sea prospecting areas, with four ISA contracts, determined to be the first country to extract minerals on a large scale. South Korea and Russia have three contracts each, Germany and France have two, and the United Kingdom has the same, although it has ceded its interests to Lockheed Martin. This company was involved in deep-sea mining in the 70s, which later turned out to be the CIA's cover for the recovery of Soviet submarines. The United States is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and is therefore excluded from the ISA, but it owns large swaths of the seabed in its own exclusive economic zone, making it a major potential beneficiary of deep-sea mining.

The U.S. advantage is due to the Guano Island Act of 1856, which allowed U.S. citizens to occupy any uninhabited island that contained guano. This led the United States to occupy many small islands in the Pacific and Oceania, such as Midway and Howland. Not only did the islands once support U.S. supplies of fertilizers and explosives, but they may now also help the U.S. access to critical minerals because of their proximity to some of the richest seabed deposits.

The goal of the ISA is to ensure that all of humanity can benefit from the development of new areas. According to the principle of the "common heritage of mankind", countries that exploit on the high seas must share revenues with other countries. However, it is still unknown when this process will begin. Mining companies have been waiting for the ISA to develop mining rules that, once approved, will mark the possibility for companies to conduct deep-sea mining on the high seas.

For some, the sooner this day comes, the better. Gerard Barron, a controversial figure, tried to establish himself as the Indiana Jones of deep-sea mining. He initially tried to exploit marine resources through Nautilus, but failed due to deteriorating relations with the Papua New Guinean government. Now, through The Metals Company (TMC, formerly known as DeepGreen), he hopes to mine polymetallic nodules in the allocated Pacific region of Nauru as part of the energy transition. Barron talks about connections with celebrities like Tesla's Elon Musk, Hollywood's Leonardo, F1's Lewis, and more, but the dream he sells is undoubtedly exciting.

"This was the last great mining," Barron declared. We need to build batteries and then move on to recycling and a circular economy. We are not a company that sells metals, but want to lease metals. We support brands that use recycled metal. Our position is to let science do the talking. ”

TMC funded peer-reviewed studies showing that conventional mines produce 460 kilograms of scrap for every kilogram of copper produced, while polymetallic nodules produce only 29 kilograms. This means no big underground holes, no huge rock piles, and almost no tailings. TMC simply sends its "smart robots" to the ocean floor to collect nodules and then pump them to the surface without blasting or digging. In fact, mining copper, cobalt or nickel from the deep sea is probably the most environmentally friendly way to mine.

While Barron is aggressive in promoting deep-sea mining and urging the ISA to introduce regulations as soon as possible, many countries around the world are moving in the opposite direction. In 2022, Chile called for a moratorium on deep-sea mining until environmental impacts were fully assessed, as well as strengthening domestic copper management, and countries such as Fiji and Palau joined the call. French President Emmanuel Macron has even asked the UN to establish a legal framework to stop mining on the high seas. The positions of Chile, France and Fiji, which are members of the ISA's main decision-making body, make it possible for the ISA's meeting in Jamaica to be dramatic, making it possible for deep-sea mining to be effectively banned before it can be officially launched.

This caution is understandable. The seabed is one of the most pristine habitats on Earth, and we don't know enough about it. It wasn't until the discovery of deep-sea organisms that we realized that not all life depends on oxygen or sunlight. Since the Challenger, many previously unknown species have been discovered on every deep-sea expedition, including rainbow fish, ultra-black fish, faceless fish, sea urchins, alien-like shrimp, sponges, and giant tubeworms without mouths or digestive tracts.

Biologists believe that what we know about this new habitat is just beginning. While miners believe that mining in some areas may have little impact, each new study offers more reasons to be cautious. For example, nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton region provide habitat for many species. We know so little about these aquatic ecosystems that even the strictest environmental measures can overlook issues such as sediment disturbances, noise pollution, or alteration of seafloor microbial communities, and human intervention is bound to have an impact on ecosystems.

The ISA is working on key environmental rules, such as a ban on mining near active black chimneys and what to do if it encounters marine life. However, some have questioned the ability of this smaller organization to oversee the process. Unlike the surface mining regulator, which has hundreds of employees conducting on-site inspections, the ISA doesn't even have helicopters or boats. Until an effective monitoring system is established, it will rely on companies to follow the rules on their own, but questions remain about the rigor of its enforcement. When asked if he had ever rejected an exploration application for a seabed mining area, the legal counsel said "no".

Poland's 3,900-square-mile Mid-Atlantic Ridge region may seem ordinary, but the "Lost City" it contains is extremely unusual. These anomalous stone minarets are key to life and the only known examples on Earth, yet are designated by the ISA as deep-sea mining sites. Not so long ago, UNESCO announced that it should be listed as a protected World Heritage Site, alongside the Grand Canyon and the Taj Mahal. Ironically, another sister agency of the United Nations has turned it into a mining exploration site.

Although it is unlikely that Poland will actually go to dismantle the "lost city", the decision is shocking. Mining companies may argue that deep-sea mining will enhance our understanding of these formations and ecosystems. However, public unease about this new frontier of mining remains.

▍Sustainable Future: Another "Fishing for the Best"

The mining industry's pursuit of copper has been the subject of controversy on many occasions, and this is not the first time that the public has been uneasy about this new approach. A typical example is the "SLOOP project" in the United States in the 60s of the last century, where the US government planned to detonate a nuclear bomb with a yield of 20 thousand tons in a copper mine in Arizona in order to mine copper ore. This plan was not implemented due to strong opposition from the local population. Nuclear mining was once considered promising, but ultimately failed to become mainstream.

History tells us that the most exciting and controversial innovations are often replaced by more gradual technological advances. Nuclear mining techniques were eventually replaced by more conventional heap leaching and electrolysis techniques, which made it possible to extract copper from otherwise worthless ores. When we consider future demand for copper, particularly wind turbines and high-speed trains, it's tempting to find the perfect solution like deep-sea mining, but we may also continue to rely on methods that have been in use for a long time.

We will get more copper from "difficult" countries that are politically unstable but have higher ore grades. Currently, the Kamoa Kakula mine in the DRC and the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, both discovered by Robert Friedland, are currently in production, and will soon be one of the largest mines in the world.

We will also continue to improve our ability to extract copper from low-grade ores. For example, the American company Jetti claims that its technology can extract metals from copper sulphide ore, which is indeed a major breakthrough considering that about two-thirds of the world's copper resources are made up of these low-grade rocks.

Imagine what this means for places like Chuqui Kamata. There, miners usually only process rock with at least 0.5% copper, and all other rocks are treated as waste rock. But now, if almost all rocks are considered mineable, the waste rock heaps surrounding the mine suddenly become a source of metal. Waste rock, once seen as a nuisance, can now be mined, and this copper will help us fight climate change.

What a perfect transformation it would be if Paul Ehrlich's pessimistic predictions were once again proven wrong, this time not because of bigger trucks and deeper mines, but by turning waste rock heaps into resources; Imagine what a fitting ending it would be for Gerard Barron to say that "the last great extraction" came not from the bottom of the sea, but from a waste rock heap in the desert. Today, the blasting of the world's largest mine has stopped, and an era has come to an end, but the roar of machinery in the depths of the mine continues.

While we're not sure what to do with this huge pit, what if Jetti's technology can bring us a happy ending? What a perfect ending if we could extract copper from that rubble and use it to build wind turbines and solar panels, and then restore the land to its original state, freeing the houses of Chuquikamata from the shadow of the pits, and freeing the valleys of the Atacama Desert from man-made hills and canyons.

This would be the most fitting outcome: the world's largest pit would be repaired, and electricity would be the best hope for tackling climate change. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, we would need a lot of electricity to make this happen. And extracting copper, whether from the ground or the seabed, is a complex process.

However, this is only one of the many paradoxes of the material world. Even more confusing is that we may need to rely on the fossil fuels that are causing us to get out of our trouble.

本文为文化纵横新媒体原创编译系列“关键产业与关键资源之变”之七，摘译自Ed Conway著《材料世界：塑造现代文明的六大原材料》（Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization，Published in 2023 by Knopf）。 文章仅代表作者观点，供读者参考。

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