Judging from the recent reaction of the United States, the signing of the mutual defense document between North Korea and Russia has caused more strategic anxiety to the White House and the Pentagon than many people thought. Less than a week after the meeting between the leaders of Russia and North Korea, the United States assisted Ukraine in planning two terrorist attacks against Russian civilian targets.
In response, North Korean Defense Minister Junnam Qiang condemned Ukraine's use of American-made missiles to attack Sevastopol. Subsequently, the US and Russian defense ministers made an emergency call. Russian media released news that the Aerospace Forces shot down an American "Global Hawk"; The United States, on the other hand, has joined forces with Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia to launch the "Blade of Freedom" exercise to flex its muscles.
Not only that, but the United States is also "pouring dirty water" on China more and more frequently. On June 27, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell made an urgent call to China's vice foreign minister, saying that normal people-to-people trade between China and Russia was "supporting Russia's defense industry." It can be seen from this series of actions that the United States has fallen into strategic anxiety and cannot escape.
Meeting of the Chinese and US Deputy Foreign Ministers
After Russia and the DPRK officially announced that they would "advance and retreat together," the United States continued to increase its "repeated horizontal jumps" between China, Russia and the DPRK, electrifying Russia today, threatening the DPRK tomorrow, and shouting at China the day after tomorrow, in essence, trying to use all the available chips in its hands to try to find a breakthrough point in the US-Russia and Sino-US game.
The reason why the United States is so anxious to find a breakthrough point is also very simple: as Russia and the DPRK are getting closer and closer, the United States has taken stock of the resources at hand and found that they are insufficient. North Korea's entry into the game has two most direct implications for the United States' global strategy. First, in the European direction, the DPRK can provide ammunition support to Russia.
This is essentially the same logic as South Korea's clamoring to provide ammunition support to NATO. Unlike the European and American countries, which have been in peace for a long time and their armaments have been weakened, the North and the South of the Korean Peninsula have never signed an armistice agreement, and both the DPRK and the ROK have hoarded large quantities of conventional ammunition and have a complete military production system. It can be said that the potential for the Korean war in the "East Asian monster room" is actually stronger than that of many NATO countries.
Thirty-eight lines
Previously, the United States had always wanted to drag South Korea into the water to support the battlefield in Ukraine. In fact, it is generally believed that South Korea has secretly ended, but it has not been explicitly stated. The apparent ammunition trading model between the United States and South Korea is that the U.S. military provides its stocks to Ukraine and then purchases ammunition from South Korea to replenish its own stocks.
In this mode, no one can pack a ticket whether or not South Korean ammunition flows into the battlefield in Udong. If North Korea directly goes to support Russia, then the scale of ammunition previously "traded in the dark box" between the United States and South Korea is very likely to be hedged by North Korea's inventory, which is equivalent to the United States going around in a big circle and doing nothing, which is very uncomfortable for Washington.
Moreover, unlike South Korea, the "common defense" document signed by Russia and the DPRK this time is extremely golden, and as long as the DPRK is willing, it can directly send troops to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. According to South Korean media reports, Russia and North Korea seem to have reached an agreement that the North Korean side will send an engineering unit into the Russian-controlled area of eastern Ukraine in July to help the local reconstruction.
North Korean army
South Korea will certainly not be able to do this. The United States had previously pulled South Korea into the market, with the intention of hedging Russia's firepower and military superiority on the battlefield, but it did not expect it to backfire. Now, the Biden administration is so frightened that it threatens Pyongyang, warning that North Korean troops will become cannon fodder if they go to the battlefield in Ukraine to fight for Russia.
Second, in the Asian direction, Russia-DPRK cooperation will bring considerable shocks to the US layout in Northeast Asia. Although the United States is pulling Japan and South Korea to conduct joint military exercises in the East China Sea and put on the appearance that the situation is under control, a review of the Pentagon's available troops shows that the resources that the United States can mobilize in the Western Pacific are actually stretched.
Immediately after the "Roosevelt" completed its joint exercises with Japan and the ROK, it was to go to the Red Sea to pick up the crew of the "Eisenhower," which had been repaired in Hong Kong. In other words, in the next month, the United States is likely to have only one aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific, the USS Reagan, available.
Biyu Mother
If the United States is "lucky" and Lebanon and Israel do not fight, then the Pentagon may be able to free up its hands and dispatch another "Truman" that can be deployed before the fall into the Western Pacific to maintain a dual-aircraft carrier posture. However, if the Lebanese-Israeli conflict breaks out and even drags on into a "protracted war" like Gaza, then the "Truman" will most likely be deployed to the Middle East.
Now the "Roosevelt" is running around has actually entered the end of its deployment, and it will have to go home for about three months at most. Looking at the current situation in the Middle East, the possibility of an escalation of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict is far greater than the possibility of de-escalation. In other words, in the second half of this year, the United States will most likely encounter the dilemma of having only one aircraft carrier, the "Reagan," wandering around the Western Pacific.
And China, with three aircraft carriers in its hands, can completely suppress the United States. If, at a time when the United States' strategic resources are most stretched, the DPRK switches some advanced technology from Russia, tests several waves of missiles, launches several satellites, and constantly puts "pressure" on South Korea, then the "iron triangle" of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which Biden has managed to bring together with great difficulty in East Asia, may face the risk of collapse.
Chao-hsien
In fact, things are already moving in this direction. On 26 June, the DPRK Missile Administration successfully completed the test-firing project of multiple warhead separation and guided hit. At the same time, Fumio Kishida and Yoon Suk-yeol, two U.S. agents in Northeast Asia, have rather unfavorable approval ratings.
The approval rating of the Kishida cabinet has fallen to 17%, and Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating is less than one-third, and he is facing the danger of being "changed by the dynasty" at any time. Japan can say that no matter who comes up, there is a high probability that it will continue the right-wing pro-US line. However, once South Korea is replaced by a progressive, there is probably a question mark over whether the current cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea can continue.
Moreover, the United States has another hidden concern that is difficult to speak. As mentioned above, the United States and South Korea played a hand of "secretly crossing Chencang" and quietly sent ammunition produced in South Korea to Udong. Now the United States is on its own, fearing that China and North Korea will make a similar deal to provide support to Russia.
The United States, Japan, South Korea
China has repeatedly and publicly stressed that it will not provide any lethal weapons to both sides of the conflict, but the United States is not at ease. After the DPRK and Russia joined forces, the United States was in a hurry to talk to the Russian defense minister and then to the Chinese vice foreign minister to talk about the Korean Peninsula issue.
Although China has repeatedly emphasized its neutral stance, the United States does not believe in its own intentions, and as a result, it scares itself, which has made its strategic anxiety even more serious. The current United States has fallen into a strategic circle: in order to alleviate their own strategic anxiety, American politicians always take the initiative to increase and escalate the situation, hoping to form absolute strategic suppression of their opponents;
However, after the counter-attack, the group of politicians found that they did not have enough cards in their hands to hedge, which caused more serious strategic anxiety. And this downward spiral of anxiety will eventually lead the United States to overdraw all the forces available at hand, accelerating the collapse of American global military hegemony.
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