Note: This analysis article only represents Cui Dongshu's personal views, if you have any objections, please leave a message.
1. Core data perspectives
In May, with the implementation of macro portfolio policies and the continued recovery of market demand, the effect continued to appear. From January to May 2024, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 53.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; operating costs were 45.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0%; The operating income margin was 5.19%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year. From January to May 2024, the revenue of the automotive industry was 3,896.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7% year-on-year; the cost was 3,409.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7%; profit was 204.7 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year; The profit margin of the automotive industry is 5.3%, which is still low compared to the average profit margin of 6.1% of downstream industrial enterprises. With the expansion of the production scale of the auto market, the decline of PPI, and the decline of upstream lithium carbonate costs, the overall profits of car companies have improved slightly.
From January to May 2024, the production and sales of the automobile industry are better under a low base, but due to the high pressure of competition, profits mainly rely on exports and high-end luxury, and the profits of most other companies have declined sharply, and the survival pressure of some enterprises has increased. The effective domestic demand is still insufficient, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises still needs to be consolidated. As fuel vehicles still have meager profits, but shrink rapidly, some companies have suffered serious losses; New energy vehicles have a high growth, but the losses are large, and the contradiction pressure is greater. Therefore, the central government and governments at all levels have stabilized automobile production and actively stabilized the consumption of fuel vehicles, and the overall situation of the automobile industry is stable and improving.
In 2023, the overall profit performance of the automotive industry is not strong, and the sales margin is only 5%, which is a significant decline from the historical normal level. From January to May 2024, the sales margin of the automotive industry was 5.3%, which is still at a historical low.
Since the production and sales of the automobile industry are basically the same, and the gap is not large, we use the output of the National Bureau of Statistics to measure the economic indicators of bicycles.
The unit cost of overall industrial enterprises was relatively stable in May. Commodity prices are running at a low level, and the pressure on raw material costs in the middle and downstream industries has been reduced. The overall bicycle revenue of the automobile industry chain is 350,000 yuan, and the profit of the industrial chain is 26,000 yuan.
2. Specific analysis
1. The income and profit structure of various economies
From January to May, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 53.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; operating costs were 45.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0%; The operating income margin was 5.19%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year. In general, the income growth of the industrial sector is stable, and the profit performance is also relatively good, among which the income and profits of state-owned enterprises have fluctuated greatly in recent years. The performance of private enterprises is much more stable, but the profits are low.
Note: Underlying data interpretation
The growth rate of the total profit and operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size is calculated on a comparable basis. There are incomparable factors between the data of the reporting period and the data of the same indicator published in the previous year, and the growth rate cannot be directly compared with each other. The main reasons for this are as follows: (1) According to the statistical system, the survey scope of industrial enterprises above designated size is adjusted regularly every year. Every year, some enterprises that meet the scale standards are included in the scope of the survey, and some enterprises withdraw from the scope of the survey due to the small scale, as well as changes such as new production enterprises, bankruptcy, and registration (revocation) enterprises. (2) Strengthen statistical law enforcement, clean up the enterprises found in the statistical law enforcement inspection that do not meet the statistical requirements of industrial enterprises above designated size, and revise the relevant base numbers in accordance with regulations. (3) Strengthen data quality management, eliminating duplicate statistical data across regions and industries. According to the latest survey on the organizational structure of enterprises carried out by the National Bureau of Statistics, since the fourth quarter of 2017, the cross-regional and cross-industry double counting of enterprise groups (companies) has been eliminated. (4) After the implementation of the policy of "replacing business tax with value-added tax", service enterprises have changed to pay value-added tax and the tax rate is lower, and industrial enterprises have gradually divested their internal non-industrial production and operation activities and turned to the service industry, so that the financial data of industrial enterprises has decreased. (5) According to the results of the comprehensive inventory of the units of the Fourth National Economic Census, the survey units of industrial enterprises above designated size have been verified and adjusted.
2. Changes in revenue and profit structure
At present, state-owned enterprises are performing very well, the proportion of income and profits continues to grow, and the sales profits of foreign-funded and private enterprises are on the low side.
The profit margin indicators of operating income are also very good at the mining industry and state-owned enterprises, the profit margin of private enterprises is very poor, and the profit proportion of manufacturing industry has decreased slightly recently.
3. Specific industry analysis
1. The profits of the mining industry are much better than those of the downstream
Under the high base and high price from January to May 2024, mining still has a lot of growth momentum, and the profit margin from January to May is also very good at the level of 19.8%.
From January to May 2024, the coal and oil industries were the most profitable, and the recent profit margin growth in the oil industry has been phenomenal. Profits in the mining industry as a whole remain high.
2. The profits of the water and electricity industry have skyrocketed
Profits in the power sector are at an all-time high, while profits in the gas sector are slightly lower but also growing. The profit performance of the water plant is super good.
3. Upstream profits are bleak
In 2023, the sales revenue and profit of the upstream industry will be adjusted after high growth, especially the profit margin will drop to 1.9%. Among them, the sales profit margin represented by steel rolling has continued to decline hugely, and there has been a negative profit margin.
The profits of industries such as chemical raw materials and non-ferrous metal smelting are relatively good.
4. The profit performance of the midstream is relatively stable
From January to May 2024, the sales revenue and profit growth of the midstream industry will be average. The sales margin of the midstream industry decreased significantly to 4.3% from 6.0% in 2018. In 2023, the sales margin of major midstream industries will also decline, especially the waste resource utilization and non-metallic mineral products industry.
5. Downstream profits have declined sharply
From January to May 2024, the profit of the automobile industry increased by 18%, which is much higher than the growth rate of 4% of the overall industrial profit, and the profit of the automobile industry has improved better. However, the profit margin of the automobile industry is 5.3%, which is still lower than that of other downstream enterprises such as tobacco, alcohol, and medicine.
At present, the main high-profit industries are tobacco, medicine and alcohol, the profits of the alcohol industry have grown sharply and rapidly, and the profits of the pharmaceutical industry have also maintained a good growth trend. The profitability of the computer communication electronics industry is not strong, but it has also increased significantly year-on-year.
6. The automotive industry is struggling to make profits
In 2022, the production of automobiles will be 27.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and the production of new energy vehicles will be 7.22 million, an increase of 98%, with a penetration rate of 26%.
In 2023, the production of automobiles will be 30.11 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year; The production of new energy vehicles was 9.44 million units, an increase of 30% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 31%, which is a very high growth.
In May 2024, vehicle production was 2.35 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%; the production of new energy vehicles was 920,000 units, an increase of 34% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 39%; From January to May, the production of automobiles was 11.33 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The production of new energy vehicles was 3.88 million units, an increase of 34% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 34%, which is a return to stable growth.
From January to May 2024, the revenue of the automotive industry was 3,896.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7% year-on-year; the cost was 3,409.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7%; profit was 204.7 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year; The profit margin of the automotive industry is 5.3%, which is still low compared to the average profit margin of 6.1% of downstream industrial enterprises. With the expansion of the production scale of the auto market, the decline of PPI, and the decline of upstream lithium carbonate costs, the overall profits of car companies have improved slightly.
Combined with the downward trend of profit margins in previous years, the recent decline in profits of the automotive industry is still large, due to the obvious price advantage of new energy under the support of policies, the profit pressure of mainstream car companies has increased sharply.
Attached: A collection of recent information
*[Passenger Federation Chapter Forum] May 2024 Pickup Truck Market Analysis
*车市扫描 - 2024年23期 (June 17th-June 23rd)
*China's auto imports from January to May 2024 decreased by 4% to 270,000 units*Comparative analysis of China's auto exports*Characteristics of the operation of the domestic commercial vehicle market in China—May 2024*Analysis of China's auto export market from January to May 2024*Model trend of passenger car segment in May*Inventory of 3.29 million units at the end of May in the national passenger car market, with an inventory of 56 days*Auto Market Scanning-Issue 22, 2024 (June 11-June 16)
*Lithium battery market analysis for new energy vehicles - May 2024
*From January to May 2024, automobile production increased by 7%, consumption increased by 0.2%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 920,000 in May by 39%
*Analysis of the trend of automobile market segment and the competitive performance of manufacturers in May *The wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles in China in May 2024 was 900,000, and the retail penetration rate was 47%
*Analysis of the market structure of the passenger car price segment - May
*车市扫描 - 2024/21 (June 3 - June 10)
*Analysis of the operating characteristics of the national passenger car market in May*[Monthly analysis] Analysis of the national passenger car market in May 2024
* Under the great changes in a century, car companies have to roll, but people have to live
*The automotive industry has a more diverse demand for talent
*May Automobile Import and Export Express
*1.68 million used cars in April 2024, up 15%
*In 2024, the price war will cool down and the market will return to the promotion war
*车市扫描 - 2024/2024 (May 27 - June 2)
*[New Energy] May 2024 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Manufacturers Wholesale Sales News *Discussion on Classification and Calculation of New Passenger Cars - May
*2024 China Automobile Exports Overseas Part Data Tracking - April
*China accounted for 64% of the world's NEV market share from January to April 2024
*China accounted for 34% of the world's automobile share in April 2024*Analysis of the rural market for new energy vehicles in April 2024*Analysis of the national charging pile market - April 2024*New energy vehicle insurance should be optimized and calculated with big data*Analysis of bottleneck improvement in the development of new energy vehicles*The release of the implementation rules for automobile trade-in subsidies is a major positive*Beijing International Auto Show-China's automobile will definitely develop globally*Scrapping, renewal and trade-in promote the high-quality development of automobile consumption*Comparative analysis of the performance of Chinese and American auto dealers in 2023* Comparative tracking of annual report indicators of new energy overseas listed companies
*In 2023, the double credit of fuel and new energy will skyrocket
*Comparative analysis of the trend of the national residential property market and the auto market*Analysis of the national rental online car-hailing market - 2023* Analysis of the Ministry of Public Security's licensing and driver data - January-December 2023
*Analysis of the first batch of new energy vehicles in 2024
*Tracking of the recall status of the national automobile market from January to December 2023*Analysis of automobile ownership and scrapping exports