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After the Chinese side intercepted the Philippine supply ship in accordance with the law, the Philippine side was obviously a little worried, and its president said in a speech on the 17th that China and the Philippines were misunderstood, and there would be no risk of escalation of the conflict because of China's interception, which can be said to have sent a rare positive signal.
However, after the US military visited Vietnam on June 22 as a platform to announce the end of the US military, the Philippine side began to return to its arrogant attitude, following the US strategy, accusing China of irresponsible behavior and interfering in the normal situation in the South China Sea.
It is worth mentioning that the Philippine side's own position is extremely vacillating, and its foreign minister clearly wants to hold talks with the Chinese side in his public statement, while the Philippine military department directly stated that there is no need to obtain China's approval in the future, because the South China Sea issue concerns its legitimate rights and interests.
According to the Philippine security minister's statement, the reason why the military personnel are so strong is that this strategy is proposed by all maritime resources, which can basically be regarded as a majority position within the Philippine side, and Marcos is unlikely to show a clear opposition to it.
Therefore, instead of optimistically choosing to believe the foreign minister's statement, it is better to be vigilant about his military stance, of course, this remark is ultimately due to the actions of the US side, which undoubtedly gave the Philippine side the courage to continue to resist when the US dignitaries visited Vietnam.
Since Marcos took office, the Philippine side's strategic actions have become mainly based on the US side's layout, so after the US side arrogantly stated that China did not properly handle the problem, Marcos also had the corresponding courage to confront China.
However, in reality, the Philippine side is not aware of the crisis, wantonly expands the confrontation situation in the South China Sea, intensifies the confrontation between the two sides, and gradually compresses China's retreat.
After the Philippines provoked regional conflicts, China reached a consensus with ASEAN and formulated the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
However, the Philippines failed to grasp the true meaning of this, continued to introduce external forces into the conflict situation in the South China Sea, abandoned its previous objective position, completely transformed into a proxy of the United States, and was willing to serve as a pawn for the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy.
But the example of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is there, the commitments that Ukraine has obtained from the United States and the West have not been accurately implemented, and the same is true for the current situation of the Philippine side, after the Chinese capital began to withdraw from the Philippine side, the American and Western markets did not play a role.
Real trade exchanges cannot be based on camp confrontation and forced selection, but to find more compatible partners according to their own market scope, so as to promote the development of relevant industries, from the perspective of trade, the relationship between China and the Philippines can be said to be gradually distancing.
Since 2019, the trade volume between China and Africa has been steadily rising, and the Philippine agricultural industry has gained a broad development vision in China, and the two sides have signed relevant cooperation agreements on this, but unexpectedly, the Philippine side unilaterally tore up the agreement.
After Marcos took office, he took a clear attitude towards the US position, and almost became a brainless follower of the US side, knowing that such provocative actions would lead to a gradual decline in Sino-Philippine relations, but he also firmly chose to believe that the US side could make up for the losses.
The greater integration between China and the Philippines, both from a commercial and diplomatic point of view, is also destined to make Marcos's choice more risky, putting a good project on hold and then turning it into slow progress.
Relevant practitioners in the Philippines have begun to complain about their authorities, demanding that they handle foreign affairs more properly, and that avoiding the risk of political confrontation requires sacrificing people's lives to support them.
It can be seen from this that the Philippine side chose to temporarily succumb to the soft on June 17 because of market pressure and public opinion suppression, and finalized the second round of confrontation route because the US side said during its visit to Vietnam that it would support the Philippine strategy.
This made Marcos worry a lot less about public opinion, and then agreed with his military suggestion, that is, not to ask the Chinese side for permission to transport subsidies, further compressing the space for mutual trust between the two sides, but the Philippine side made this choice too hastily.
As China-Philippines relations continue to decline, and the possibility of political dialogue to resolve the issue is also decreasing, the final outcome is that the Philippine and Chinese markets will be disengaged and become a situation of anti-regional cooperation.
As the saying goes, "distant relatives are not as good as close neighbors", abandoning the trade market in the South China Sea and seeking the European and American markets instead, and the industrial integration is still low, it can be said that the greatest probability will move in the direction of the Philippine people's concerns.
In the end, the Filipino people are forced to pay for the wrong decisions of political leaders and reduce their quality of life, and although China has always wanted to promote the political dialogue agenda in the South China Sea, there is no way back under the Philippine side's tough attitude.
The Philippine side should be aware of the root of the problem, and what really affects the agenda of mutual trust between the two sides is not China's obstruction, but its political leaders relying on the support of the US side, unreasonably interfering in China's sovereignty and affecting the stability of the South China Sea, and China will naturally not budge on this.
Bibliography:
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2024_06_25_739266.shtml?s=zwyzxw (Observer.com)
https://3w.huanqiu.com/a/2f0b35/4IKBiss77V0 (Globe)
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