Why is the United States reluctant to make more commitments when China and the Philippines are engaged in confrontation in the South China Sea? The Philippines has set a date for negotiations with China, is this a dead heart for the United States? The U.S. election drama opens, Trump gets off to a good start, and the Democratic Party is considering changing candidates?
The conflict in the South China Sea is fermenting, and the Philippines wants more commitments from the United States
For the Philippines, the June 17 conflict in the South China Sea was a new watershed in the development of the situation in the South China Sea, which means that the Chinese coast guard will take a more resolute and severe attitude to respond to any provocations planned by the Philippines in the South China Sea in the future. This has also prompted the Philippines to face a new choice, whether to further escalate the situation in the South China Sea and continue to wrestle with China, or to settle the matter and recognize China's sovereign rights in the South China Sea and return the relationship between the two countries to the normal track. At the same time, many believe that the attitude of the United States is also crucial to the subsequent development of this conflict, after all, the Philippines dares to argue with China, and the support from the US military is indispensable, but this does not seem to be the case.
CNBC reported on June 27 that China's actions in the South China Sea have called into question the "deterrence" of the United States. Chester Kabasar, chairman of the Organization for International Development and Security Cooperation, a Philippine think tank, said that the failure of the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty to prevent the recent confrontation in the South China Sea means that the commitments expressed by the two sides are in fact "vague", and if the United States really wants to help the Philippines engage in a strategic "asymmetric war" with China, then the tactics used by the Chinese coast guard should be classified as "armed attacks" that can trigger the US-Philippine alliance treaty, but in fact neither the US nor the Philippines has done so.
Richard Haidarian, a policy adviser at the University of the Philippines, also said that given the current South China Sea issue, the trigger conditions for the US-Philippine mutual treaty could be extended to "any deliberate injury or death to Filipinos", but the Philippine government last week expressed a concern about the "calm response" to the conflict in the South China Sea, and the Philippines wants to get more assurances from the United States, but it is likely not to receive such assurances, and the Philippines also wants to avoid "unnecessary escalation" of the situation.
Obviously, the attitude of the United States towards the conflict in the South China Sea has been put on the table, and as long as the conflict does not cause deaths, the US military's support for the Philippines will remain at "all support except actual support." The United States knew from the beginning that the confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea would not turn into a war, because it was not in the interests of the United States.
The Philippines wants to negotiate with China, which is scheduled for early July
Therefore, after showing a tough attitude to China, the Philippine government officials also expressed their willingness to negotiate with China, and even gave a more vague time node. Philippine Foreign Secretary Manaro said at a Senate hearing this week that China and the Philippines are likely to hold talks on the current conflict in the South China Sea in early July, according to a June 28 report by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, and that the Philippines is committed to building "confidence-building measures" with China.
Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romualdez, who has always been tough on China, also recently expressed his position, emphasizing that the Philippine side hopes to hold talks with China at the beginning of next month, because China does not want a major conflict in the South China Sea, and the Philippines does not want to, and this is a "good starting point" for bilateral talks.
Although judging from this series of statements, the Philippine side seems to have taken the initiative to hand over an olive branch to China, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Brawner, also confirmed a few days ago that the illegal transportation and replenishment activities against Ren'ai Jiao will not stop, and there will be no advance notification. Therefore, we can almost infer that the negotiation signal released by the Philippines is probably a smokescreen, a typical "negotiation for the sake of negotiation", to buy a window of time for the Filipino personnel on the front line to reinforce the "Sierra Madre".
The main reason behind this is that it is difficult for the United States to give more support to the Philippines on the South China Sea issue, and the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which has been reaffirmed by US government officials again and again, is more like a knock on the Philippine side not to act rashly on the South China Sea issue.
Trump got off to a good start, and Biden himself could not be saved
As for the deeper reasons, I am afraid that they are inseparable from the results of the current US presidential election.
Although a domestic court had convicted former President Trump of three felonies a few weeks earlier, it did not seem to have had much impact on his campaign, and it was a bit of a casual walk during the first televised presidential debate.
In contrast, Biden, as the current president, did not perform well, froze from time to time, frequently cleared his throat, and seemed a little loose in answering questions. Especially when answering questions about health insurance, he seemed a little confused, which was in stark contrast to Trump, who was talking eloquently on the spot.
On June 28, according to a report by China Television News Network, CNN anchor John King said that for this TV debate, he heard that the Democratic Party fell into a widespread and serious panic, not only some people expressed concern about the results of the presidential election, but also asked Biden to "make way" for the election and asked the Democratic Party to launch a new candidate.
There are also CNN hosts who said that Biden "screwed up his campaign", although during Biden's tenure, he scored quite a lot on abortion and economic construction, but the performance was really terrible.
Obviously, Biden's performance in the televised debate further confirmed the outside world's judgment of his poor physical health.
Combined with several falls and confusion during his tenure, even if Biden succeeds in winning this election, he may not be able to fully perform his presidency, and the "substitution" proposed within the Democratic Party has made Biden's position even more shaky.
In terms of specific age, Biden, who was born in 1942, is now 82 years old, and it is difficult to say whether the United States will be "crooked" if an old man is once again in control of the core of national power.
At least during the current term of the Biden administration, the ideology and atmosphere of the internal society of the United States have shown "alienation", and external problems continue to ferment, whether it is the Russia-Ukraine issue, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, or the South China Sea issue and the North Korean nuclear issue at this stage, all of which involve a lot of energy in the United States.