A list of major financial events in the week from July 1st to July 5th, the following are Beijing time:
What to watch for the week: Will the U.S. non-farm payrolls cool down sharply in June as expected, Powell and Lagarde will speak at the ECB forum, many countries will release PMI data, and the Federal Reserve will release the latest meeting minutes. Also, keep an eye on the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, the UK and French elections.
U.S. non-farm payrolls data for June
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the June non-farm payrolls data, as well as hourly earnings, unemployment rate and other data.
On the back of the May non-farm payrolls data that rose sharply to 272,000, analysts expect the number of new jobs to plummet to 188,000 in June, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4% in June, and the month-on-month wage growth rate fell slightly to 0.3%.
The Morgan Stanley report expects non-farm payrolls growth to slow to 210,000 in June, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.0%. The dual effects of both labor supply and demand have led to this change, with the decrease in labor supply mainly due to a slowdown in immigration inflows, while the decrease in demand is reflected in a decrease in job vacancies and an increase in new jobless claims.
At the Federal Reserve's June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates once this year. Fed funds rate futures show that CME Group's Fed Watch tool shows only a 10% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July, and expects a close 40% chance that the Fed will continue to "stay put" in September, and investors could raise their rate cut bets if the jobs report highlights a slowdown in the labor market.
Fed Governor Cook noted that the current state of the labor market is comparable to pre-pandemic conditions, and while tight, it is not overheated. She also mentioned that there is data suggesting that last year's job growth may have been exaggerated, and that this is likely to continue to happen this year.
Previously, a report released by the California Office of Legislative Analysis (LAO) in June titled "Latest Early Employment Revision Shows No Net Job Growth in 2023" showed that California actually achieved almost no net job growth for the whole of 2023 (only 9,000 jobs were added for the whole year), meaning that the 2023 job growth in the United States may be fake.
Before the non-farm report, the ADP data, known as the "small non-farm", will also be released at 20:15 on the evening of July 3.
Powell, Lagarde delivered speeches at the ECB Forum
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Brazil's central bank Governor Neto will speak at the ECB forum.
Recently, global central bank interest rate cut expectations have been readjusted again, as major central banks face more persistent inflation than expected, the wave of interest rate cuts that was originally expected to start in 2024 has not arrived, pay attention to Powell, Lagarde's relevant statements on inflation and the prospect of interest rate cuts.
Inflation rebounded after Canada began to cut interest rates, with CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year in May, up from 2.7% in April. The market generally believes that the rebound in inflation has added uncertainty to whether the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates in July.
At the same time, Australian inflation has also picked up, with the weighted CPI growing by 4% y/y in May, higher than the consensus estimate of 3.8%, and Deutsche Bank expects the RBA to raise interest rates by 25bp to 4.6% in August.
In addition, although the ECB began to cut interest rates for the first time, ECB Governing Council member Kazimir still believes that the risk of rising inflation is very high, and expects another rate cut this year.
French elections
The first round of voting in the French parliamentary elections will be held on June 30, and the second round will be held on July 7. Recent polls show that the far-right party, the National Alliance, outperforms all other parties.
The latest polls show that the French public's satisfaction with President Emmanuel Macron is still at a recent low, further raising the alarm about the uncertain future of the French government's decision-making power. On Friday, June 28, local time, a poll conducted by market research agency Toluna-Harris Interactive for the French news channel LCI TV showed that Macron's approval rating fell by 6 percentage points from the previous survey to 36%, the worst since March.
As the general election is approaching, the French stock and bond market is clouded, the bond market has hit the worst sovereign debt crisis, the stock market has suffered a heavy blow of nearly 200 billion US dollars, the CAC 40 index has hit a new low since January, and companies have sold junk bonds to lock in funds.
Other important data, meetings and events
World Artificial Intelligence Conference 2024
The 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-level Conference on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence is about to open, and this year's forum will be held from July 4 to 6, and the exhibition will be held from July 4 to 7. The conference will focus on the theme of "Promoting Sharing through Consultation and Promoting Good Wisdom through Good Governance", and create four major sections: "Conference Forum, Exhibition and Display, Award Competition, and Intelligent Experience".
The conference forum is presented in accordance with the "1+3+X" architecture, including one opening ceremony and plenary session, three main forums on global governance, industrial development, and scientific frontiers, and several industry forums, covering ten key topics of AI ethical governance, large models, data, computing power, embodied intelligence, AI for Science, new industrialization, autonomous driving, investment and financing, education and talent.
Among them, the popularity of large models is still one of the top ten key topics of the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Relevant leaders from the demand-side and supply-side enterprises of the State Grid, Baoxin Software, iFLYTEK, Huawei, iSoftStone and other AI large model demand and supply side enterprises will give keynote speeches on the topic of "Innovative Models and Practices of Scenario-based Application and Industry Landing of AI Large Models in Mainland China".
The 2024 Global Digital Economy Conference was held
The main venue of the 2024 Global Digital Economy Conference will be held at the China National Convention Center from July 2 to 5. With the theme of "Opening a New Era of Digital Intelligence and Sharing a New Digital Future", this year's conference set up a "1+6+3+N" activity framework, including an opening ceremony and main forum, six high-level forums, three brand characteristic activities, and a number of thematic forums and series of activities.
Li Auto's 2024 Intelligent Driving Summer Conference
Li Auto officially announced that it will hold a summer conference on intelligent driving at 8 p.m. on July 5. At the press conference, the improvement of the capability of Ideal NOA, the new progress of intelligent driving products, and the technical solutions to achieve true autonomous driving will be the focus of discussion.
Li Xiang, chairman and CEO of Li Auto, previously revealed that the upcoming national no-map NOA is also planned to launch an end-to-end + VLM (visual language model) supervised autonomous driving system based on 3 million clips trained by test users. It is expected that by the end of this year and the beginning of next year, they will launch a supervised autonomous driving system with more than 10 million clips to be trained.
UK General Election
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak abruptly announced on May 22 that elections for the House of Commons will be held on July 4. The date was kept under strict secrecy until it was announced, when elections were widely expected to take place in the fall. Traditionally, UK general elections are held at least once every 5 years, but at any time during a 5-year term, the prime minister can call a general election.
However, the British media has recently exposed "scandals", a number of political police personnel are suspected of betting on the election date of the House of Commons of Parliament, and are under investigation by the Anti-Gambling Committee, especially Sunak's "close friends" frequently bet on the election date.
U.S. stocks are closed on Independence Day
Affected by the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 4, local time in the United States, and the market will be closed half a day earlier the day before. Goldman Sachs fund flow experts warn that after July 4, U.S. stock bulls began to reduce their positions, and by the time of the August election, the stock market may risk an outflow.
Multi-country PMI data released
In the same week, China, Germany, France, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries will release PMI data, South Korea, Japan, Germany, etc. will release the final value of the June manufacturing PMI on Monday, and the United States will release the June ISM manufacturing index on the same day. The week will see the release of China's Caixin PMI for June, after China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7, the highest since July 2022, and the services PMI was 54, the highest since August 2023.
750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires
Wind data shows that 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire in the open market of the central bank next week, of which the amount due on Tuesday and Wednesday is larger, with 50 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan due from Monday to Friday respectively.
Hit new opportunities
In the current week (July 1-July 5), no new shares of A shares were listed, and 1 new shares were subscribed.
Qiaofeng Intelligent opened its subscription on July 1 and will be listed on the GEM, with a total of about 30.19 million shares issued and an estimated amount of 1.445 billion yuan.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Yuanxu Technology will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 2, the company is a Singapore-based precision engineering services provider specializing in precision machining and precision welding services for international companies in the semiconductor and other sectors. Zhongjiang Communications and Jingfa Property will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 3.
A total of 23 new funds (Class A and Class C combined) were issued during the week.
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