If you have a boil on your hands and feet, should you take injections to reduce inflammation or amputate your hands and feet? It's a good choice.
When a country decides whether to go to war or not, it must be analyzed: why are we fighting? For whom? What are the consequences of hitting? After thinking through these issues and analyzing the benefits and disadvantages clearly, the country will decide whether to go to war or not.
For example, the big powers regard the return and reunification of the "island" as the core of their core interests, and whoever wants to interfere in the reunification of the big countries will not hesitate to fight. Because on this issue, the few issues that have just been mentioned are very clear.
First of all, "why should we fight?" It is very clear: If the island wants independence and there is no hope for peaceful reunification, then it must be fought. There is no ambiguity in this, and the whole world does not doubt the determination of the great powers.
The second is "for whom to fight", which is a bit big, for the rejuvenation of the nation and for the Chinese civilization; And also for more than a billion people. This is because the culture of a great country has been built on the basis of "great unification" since ancient times, and if it is not unified, it means that it is sorry for the nation and the people.
In fact, if the island is left alone and does not fight, the consequences will be unimaginable, and even the foundation of the political power will be shaken. If the island is independent and the mainland fights, in fact, any consequences are better than not fighting.
Why? Because a civilization that originated in the Yellow River Valley, after thousands of years of changes, today's territory is far beyond the past. If the current people can't protect this territory, it will gradually shrink.
Assuming that the island becomes independent without any consequences, then problems will inevitably arise in many remote areas and those ethnic autonomous areas. After that, the situation will collapse as quickly as dominoes.
Fighting, of course, there are two results: "win" and "losing", and with the current strength, "losing" is impossible; The most likely thing to happen is that the big countries are targeted by European and American countries, and their economic development is in a difficult situation.
But this kind of economic development is in trouble, and it is nothing compared to the trouble of the country falling into division in the future. For example, if a person has boils on his hands and feet, should he be treated with injections to reduce inflammation, or should his hands and feet be amputated? It's a good choice.
Now, many people on the island are convinced that if a major country uses force, the United States will definitely send troops to rescue it. In fact, this idea is a dream, and the probability of the United States sending troops is even smaller than that of Japan and Europe.
Because the United States "why is sending troops?" For whom? Are the results of the dispatch affordable? "As far as the current world situation is concerned, even if there is a world war, the United States will not end up early, let alone for the sake of a small island thousands of miles away.
In both world wars, the United States was the last to play: because it could not find a reason, it had to bear the risk of defeat
The United States is a country with a history of only 260 years, but it has only been a few years without war, and there are wars in which the United States participates in almost every year. However, it is still a bit of a generalization to conclude that the United States is a war-loving country based on this alone.
It is true that the United States fights wars every year, but they are fighting wars that they are sure to win, such as Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.; They never fight hard against evenly matched opponents, and this is the characteristic of the United States.
A world war is a war involving countries around the world, because in a world war, what the parties involved in the war want to maintain or change is inevitably a world order, which is related to the interests of all countries in the world.
During the First and Second World Wars, the United States was an absolute world power, both economically and militarily, and logically speaking, the United States and Britain actively participated; But the United States did not enter the war directly, but entered the war towards the end of the war.
The time of the First World War was July 28, 1914 ~ November 11, 1918, and the United States officially entered the war on April 6, 1917. Until then, the United States just didn't move and did business with all parties.
Why didn't the United States go directly to the war? First of all, he has no motivation to fight: why should I fight? This is Britain and Germany fighting for European and world turf, why should I join?
Secondly, the United States does not know who to fight for: the United States has good relations with Britain, Germany and other countries, and the volume of trade is very large. Germany, in particular, has a better relationship, but it is Britain that has been suppressing the United States until then.
In the end, there is no prospect of war, and if you make the wrong choice and stand on the side of the defeat, you will die. Britain is a world hegemon and does not treat the United States badly; Germany is a rising star, and if it wins, it is also a strong opponent of the United States.
Therefore, before these problems are sorted out, the United States just watched blankly, and still maintained trade with all parties, but did not directly participate in the war. It was not until 1917 that the situation on the battlefield became clear, and the United States chose Britain and sent troops to fight in Europe.
The entry of the United States into the war made the situation in the European theater of World War I more obvious, and Germany's defeat was imminent; In fact, the countries that profited the most from World War I were the United States and Japan, which catapulted to become world powers, and they made a lot of money just by selling arms.
In January 1919, the "Paris Peace Conference", which resolved the post-World War I issue, was ultimately based on the opinions of Britain and maintained extreme pressure and restrictions on Germany. The "14-point proposal" put forward by the United States was rejected by Britain and France. This shows that the world at that time was still dominated by the British.
It should be said that the United States also got what it deserved: post-war benefits, as well as the desire of the United States to participate in the management of the world; The "League of Nations" was formed with the opinion of the United States in mind.
The European part of World War II was actually a continuation of World War I: Germany refused to accept its defeat in World War I, and even more so to accept the harsh restrictions and extreme oppression of Germany by the "Versailles Treaty".
The attitude of the United States from the beginning was sympathy for Germany, but they did not want to offend Britain, the world power at that time, so they could only support Germany in trade, which was also a reason for Germany's rapid economic recovery after World War I.
U.S. President Wilson during World War I
World War II finally broke out, mainly in Europe with a "policy of appeasement", and Britain and the United States were appeased. Britain's appeasement was because Britain wanted to "bring disaster to the east" and harm the Soviet Union; The "appeasement" of the United States proceeded from its fundamental interests: to balance the power of Britain and France in Europe.
Countries think differently about the time of the outbreak of World War II, and Europe uses the time when Germany blitzed Poland on September 1, 939 as the start time of World War II. The United States directly participated in the European theater in June 1942.
In fact, the United States was already super powerful at the beginning of World War II, becoming the number one in the world, and they supported Britain because Britain was still the leader of Europe; The United States also had good relations with the Soviet Union, because the Soviet Union was a treasure trove of resources.
More importantly, the United States and Germany are also good. Germany was suppressed after the First World War and had no way to do it, but after all, it was an industrial power, and as long as it had capital, it would soon be able to rise; And the United States happens to be a place rich in capital, and they are swarming to invest in Germany.
In World War II, the United States was also very hesitant, whether to enter the war or not? They have good relations with other countries, and even China and Japan, which are fighting to the death in Asia, are friends of the United States. The United States has made a lot of money in trade with these countries.
In a world war, if the United States does not have an attitude, it can only be an "economic giant and political dwarf", and its influence in the world is limited to trade.
At the end of 1941, Britain and the United States signed the Atlantic Charter, which gave the United States Atlantic privileges, which was a great temptation, and it was time for the United States to enter the world and become a world power.
For many reasons, the United States gradually shifted its position in favor of the Allies, and the United States also cut off Japan's strategic material channels for the sake of British interests in Asia. Where Japan could stand it, it immediately "raided Pearl Harbor" and wanted to win two years in the Pacific.
The United States was very cautious about whether or not to go to war with a world power, and Japan was also a world power at that time; Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and blew up the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and the U.S. Congress voted to go to war.
The United States was also cautious and cautious in entering the European theater, and after Britain made huge concessions on Pacific privileges, the United States still sent Eisenhower to Britain on May 23, 1942, for a 10-day field investigation.
After Eisenhower's inspection, he submitted a report to Marshall, who was in charge of military affairs in the United States, reporting on the battlefield situation, pointing out that all European countries had gained battlefield superiority in the absence of unified command, and that if unified command was established, they would certainly be able to achieve final victory.
Finally, with Roosevelt's approval, the United States officially sent its army to attack the European theater, and Europe was not ambiguous, allowing the United States to take the lead in forming a unified command, and this commander was Eisenhower, and the British Field Marshal Montgomery was his deputy.
In 1945, World War II ended, and the United States became the world hegemon. In this war, the United States did not get as simple as economic benefits, they gained control of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and in fact gained control of the world and became the world hegemon.
Sullivan said: The United States wants to see a "harmless and prosperous" China, so it wants to build a "small courtyard and high walls."
It can be seen from the cautious policy decisions made by the United States in the two world wars that the Americans are very adept and will absolutely not fight a war without benefits, and this benefit must not only be long-term but also immediately obtainable, otherwise there is no need to talk about it.
The post-World War II order was established under the leadership of the United States, and the "Cold War" was a struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union for hegemony, but it was not a hot war; At the same time, the split camp of the Cold War was the need for the United States to emerge as the hegemon, and it was also the need for Britain to maintain its residual influence.
At the end of the Cold War, the so-called world order established by the United States was actually very obvious:
First of all, the United States comes first, and the world hegemon must be the United States; For this, the United States will fight with anyone. However, as long as it does not endanger the status and hegemony of the United States, there is no need for the United States to go to war.
After the end of the Cold War, the United States fought many wars, but these wars were one-sided, and it was the United States that cleaned up the battlefield after the Cold War with a little military force; Or rather, the geopolitical influence left by the United States in the co-optation of the Soviet Union.
Secondly, below the United States, are the major industrial countries of Europe and Japan and South Korea in Asia. On the one hand, these countries will not endanger US hegemony and challenge US status, and on the other hand, they will also be pawns of the US in controlling Eurasia.
Let the pawns contribute, of course, to give them benefits, so, in the world industrial division of labor, these countries are in an important position, they undertake almost all high-tech industrial manufacturing outside the United States, so, these countries are also rich.
Thirdly, it is China and other developing countries, and in the so-called "order" of the United States, these countries can only engage in some labor-intensive industries, and high-tech products can be bought from the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
Such an industrial "harmless boom"
These developing countries are still populous countries and have huge consumption, so they are very good markets, so as long as these countries are content with the status quo and are willing to exchange 800 million shirts for a plane, the United States is still very happy.
In fact, providing cheap and high-quality products to the world can also make some money, and the hardships and hard work of the Chinese make China gradually change; However, in the eyes of the United States, this is okay, and what is harmless to the United States is a kind of "harmless prosperity".
This was the case in China at the time of the reform and opening up, and the United States was very happy, and it would not say that Chinese textile factories were "overcapacity", nor would it say that the wages of workers in Chinese toy factories were "too low". At that time, the United States and developed countries were smiling at China.
In the end, it is a country that the United States looks down on, and the United States does not even look at it. For example, Africa and other places.
The current Biden administration in the United States has actually made it very clear, Blinken said: the United States should maintain a "rules-based order" based on the principle of "strength". Sullivan said: The United States wants to see a "harmless and prosperous" China, so it wants to build a "small courtyard and high walls."
I'm going to build a "small courtyard wall".
The world is full of crises and there is a danger of a major war
The United States is the first in the order established by the United States, and it is not yet clear who will challenge the "America First," so the United States does not have an urgent situation in which it is determined to fight a war.
"Russian-Ukrainian war", why is Russia fighting? Because if you don't fight, Ukraine will enter NATO, and if you follow Belarus, you will inevitably enter NATO. In this way, there is no meaning for Russia to exist: the land of Longxing is gone, what is there to do?
The biggest disadvantage of this war for the United States is that the United States may lose the trust of European countries in itself.
Just imagine, Russia fights Ukraine, and the United States doesn't care; Then European countries can conclude that the United States will not care when Russia fights itself. And Russia happens to be a short-tempered temper that starts at the slightest disagreement.
When Russia completely subdues Ukraine, Europe immediately faces Russia, but at the same time, it is also an opportunity: Russia's huge resources happen to support Europe's development. So, if the United States does not care, a Europe far from the United States and close to Russia will appear.
Control of Europe is the war dividend that the United States got in World War II, and it was lost, this is the regression of American hegemony in Europe, and the next step is to return to the Americas. This is something that the United States cannot stand.
Therefore, the United States wants to desperately support Ukraine, and at the same time, it also needs European hemorrhage support. However, the United States will never end up with Russia in the face of the Congo, because it cannot see the benefits, but it can see the dangers clearly.
The "chaos in the Middle East" is, in fact, a matter of Israel's life and death. Putting aside the rights and wrongs in this, the United States supports Israel for a certain amount; But the United States is also very entangled in its world image, so it behaves very outrageously, often saying one thing and doing another.
In fact, the Middle East is not as significant to the United States as it used to be, and the Middle East is not completely dependent on the dollar for energy; The U.S. is now producing more crude oil than the Middle East, and they don't care.
Some time ago, it was said that "Saudi Arabia stopped renewing the agreement with the United States", I don't know if it's true; On the other hand, is this the initiative of Saudi Arabia not to sign? Why didn't the United States take the initiative not to sign it?
Those who expect the United States to return to the Middle East and mingle with the countries of the Middle East are rare. On the one hand, for whom is the United States going to fight? Don't see the need; On the other hand, even if there is no possibility of failure, then what good is it for the United States?
Therefore, although the world is in crisis now, and Eastern Europe and the Middle East are already in full swing, the United States will not directly participate in the war, because the United States does not need to fight for Europe and Israel; It's also because there is no benefit at all in fighting this kind of war.
The United States is not allowing China to enter a higher level, and it is not a matter of life and death
At present, only the Asia-Pacific issue remains, and the United States has been engaged in "pivoting to Asia" for many years in an attempt to contain China's development and put China in the position of a "developing country" for "harmless prosperity."
In order to prevent China's development, the United States and the West also cunningly use the so-called "climate change problem" to lock China and prevent China's industrial development; Who knows that the Chinese are too capable, using "new energy" to promote "double reduction", actually overtaking in corners, and directly making many leads.
Americans "hate", you do a good job of making shirts, what electric vehicles, large aircraft, 5G, new energy? Now as soon as you enter the "advanced manufacturing country" industry, you call Europe, Japan and South Korea to eat.
This is the situation we are seeing now, where the United States is taking the lead in containing China, and in fact it is not necessarily the Americans who are the most happy, but the European industrial countries, Japan and South Korea.
Europe is better, after all, it still has its own big market, and Japan and South Korea are now a little unable to survive. How nostalgic they are for the beginning of China's reform and opening up, making money casually in China.
Therefore, as long as the United States puts forward any proposal to contain China, Japan and South Korea are the most active, followed by Europe; But the United States has also made it very clear: it is resolute not to go to war with China.
Why not go to war with China? Because there is no benefit, not only is there no benefit, but there are also infinite disadvantages, and the United States may lose all hegemony because of this. At the same time, the United States does not have the need for them to fight a war with China.
In fact, the United States also knows that China has no idea of challenging American hegemony, but if it continues to develop like this, it will one day surpass the United States, which is what the United States is worried about.
For example, in aerospace, the United States used the "Wolf Clause" to exclude China early on, and they were afraid that China would become powerful; However, the United States is not afraid of Russia, and even though the United States and Russia are now on the same page, they are still cooperating in aerospace.
Suppose that one day the "lone frog" on the island will become bigger, and the big countries will strike hard, and the lone frogs will hope that the United States will send troops, which is a doomed dream. Besides, the U.S. policy is still technically "vague", and he doesn't have this commitment.
The United States wants the great powers to be drawn into a war, which will weaken the power of the great powers; Therefore, the United States will always support weapons and bring Europe, Japan and South Korea to make trouble, but don't think about sending troops.
On the contrary, we should pay attention to countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are clearly feeling the tremendous pressure. Because if a big country becomes a major high-tech manufacturing country in the world, where will these billions of human resources still have their way to live.
Therefore, even if a proxy war breaks out, the United States will arch the fire and make it bad, but it will not send troops;
Europe, Japan and South Korea may rush to the front, and they are also willing to rush to the front to fight, maybe they will succeed and block the big countries from the "advanced manufacturing industry"?