In June, A-shares lost 3,000 points again, officially starting the 55th 3,000-point defense battle in history!
For investors, confidence is more important than gold. Many organizations shouted the slogan of "bear heart for bull gall".
Now that the "five poor and six unique" have been vividly interpreted, can the big A-shares successfully stage the "seven turnovers" in July? Where is the "money" of A-shares in the second half of the year?
Is there a play in turning over seven?
There is a proverb: five poor, six and seven turn over.
Don't say it, this application is really suitable for this year's A-share market. The market bottomed out and rebounded in early February, rising for three consecutive months from February to April, starting to adjust in May, and ushering in a sharp decline in June.
Here's the problem! These 5 are also poor, 6 is also desperate, will 7 turn over? Let's start with a statistic.
The data shows that in the past 20 years, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index falling in May, June and July is 55%, 50% and 40% respectively. Judging from the probability of ups and downs, there is a certain exaggeration in the statement that 5 poor and 6 absolute are exaggerated, and half of the time in June is up.
Judging from the monthly rise and fall, compared with 5 poor, the phenomenon of 6 absolute is more obvious. For example, in June 2004, 2008 and 2013, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the decline of individual stocks must have been even more dramatic. In July, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising was 60%, and the average rise and fall was 1.67%, and the monthly gains in 2007, 2009 and 2020 were all more than 10%.
Some friends are estimated to be curious: "Five poor, six absolute seven turn over" This statement originated in the Hong Kong stock market, and why do A shares also believe in this set?
This may be traced from the timeline of the listed company's earnings disclosure.
Generally speaking, May and June are the "window period" of financial reports, and the impact of the spring market at the beginning of the year gradually subsides, and at the same time, the corporate income tax liquidation and payment period at the end of May may cause a shortage of funds, resulting in "five poverty". Then, in June, due to the mid-term assessment of banks, market liquidity may be further reduced, which may bring about a situation of "six absolutes".
By July, market liquidity is usually eased, coupled with the release and implementation of policy dividends, as well as the volatile market in May and June, there is a possibility of a "seven turnaround".
However, historical data is more of a reference and cannot predict the future. Whether A-shares can usher in the "seven turnover" market this year is best judged from the present.
Where is the "money" of A-shares?
Recently, a number of leading brokerage institutions have expressed their views on A-shares in the second half of the year, and generally believe that a recovery is expected.
The data shows that in the 24 years from 2000 to 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index have risen 13 times in July, with a 54% probability of rising. The probability of the CSI 300 index strengthening in July is a little higher, with 12 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023 rising in July, accounting for 63%.
Huatai Securities said that the follow-up positive factors will gradually appear, and the market in July is worth looking forward to in the context of low market expectations.
CICC (601995) said that although the recovery market since February has faced twists and turns, the pessimistic period for this year may have passed. At present, the overall valuation of the A-share market has returned to the historical bottom level, and the increase in the steady growth policy in the second half of the year combined with the continuous improvement of the system under the current capital market policy dividend will help continue to activate the capital market, once again boost investor confidence, and continue to pay more attention to phased and structural opportunities in the second half of the year.
Huaxi Securities (002926) research report believes that since late May, A-shares have turned to shock and rest, and the current valuation of most broad-based indices of A-shares has been repaired to around the median of the past three years, and the follow-up market risk appetite needs to wait for a new catalyst to further rise. From the perspective of funds, follow-up insurance funds and social security funds are expected to become important sources of incremental funds, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market outlook, and A-shares are expected to gradually move up in shocks throughout the year. In terms of style, high-dividend assets are still an important direction for medium and long-term capital allocation.
In terms of allocation, Industrial Securities said that the leading style of the large market will still be an important source of excess returns.
First of all, from the perspective of risk appetite, the world has entered an era of high-probability investment. The A-share market has undergone adjustments in the past few years, as well as the current capital market environment has reshaped the investment philosophy, and the consensus on high-win assets and high-quality leaders has been condensed.
Secondly, from the perspective of profitability, the leading advantage will continue. At present, the bottom of the economy has gradually become clear, but the path of economic recovery may be relatively modest. In this context, the large-cap leader, as a benchmark with competitive advantages in various industries, may continue to generate excess returns in the coming stage.
Finally, from the perspective of capital, the reshaping of the consensus of the market leader and core assets has just begun. In the current capital market environment, on the one hand, ETFs and insurance funds have become an important source of incremental funds in the market, and on the other hand, the speculation of small-cap stocks and "shell value" has been suppressed, jointly promoting the market to focus on the market leader, and high-probability investment is gradually becoming the consensus of all funds in the whole market.
Author: Han Xin
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
Comprehensive: CBN, Xueqiu, Daily Business Daily and other articles
This article is the exclusive content of the WeChat public account of "CBN Broadcasting", please contact the background for authorization before reprinting. The individual stocks involved in this article are for reference only, and are not recommended for trading and are not responsible for personal income.