With regard to the issue of China's Taiwan Strait, the United States has put on a posture that as long as Chinese mainland is "armed reunification," the United States will militarily intervene in a war with Chinese mainland, so as to force Chinese mainland not to dare to make a move, and then let the Taiwan issue maintain the status quo, but does the United States really dare to send troops to China's Taiwan Strait?
You must know that from Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China in August 2022 to Lai's inappropriate remarks in May 2024, the PLA has carried out military exercises around Taiwan quite quickly, launching large-scale military operations around Taiwan, China, and the response of the United States has been really weak.
PLA military exercises around Taiwan
On the whole, the PLA's military exercises against Taiwan are not only a deterrent to the forces seeking "independence," but also a kind of war rehearsal, preparing for the PLA's real move in the future.
And what the United States should know about the Taiwan issue of China is that
What Chinese mainland wants to solve is not only China's Taiwan issue, but also the problem that the United States has too deep in the western Pacific.
In addition, Chinese mainland has long done a war rehearsal: when Chinese mainland and the United States turn their faces, the scale of the war is likely to spread to the entire western Pacific, so that the three countries controlled by the United States also participate in this war, and then solve the problem of American interference in Western Pacific affairs in one fell swoop.
The Korean Peninsula Issue
The first country is South Korea.
Everyone knows that China fought a Korean War with the United States in the 50s of the last century, and the Chinese and American armies fought each other on the Korean Peninsula.
At that time, the core reason for China's fight in the Korean War was that China could not allow a country controlled by the United States to border China.
If South Korea reunifies the Korean Peninsula, then China's northeast region will become the "front line".
However, there is no country that has too much strategic depth. If the conditions are right, China naturally does not want to see the United States stationing troops on the Korean Peninsula.
U.S. Forces in Korea
After all, when there is already a North Korea as a "Sino-US buffer zone," the fact that the United States can still carry out such an operation as the THAAD incident shows that it is not enough to have only half of the Korean Peninsula as a "Sino-US buffer zone" and cannot support China's national defense and security.
Therefore, after China and the United States turn their other cheeks on the Taiwan issue, China is likely to make trouble on the Korean Peninsula issue.
In fact, even if China does not make a fuss about the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is likely to be the first to make a move.
What we need to know is that while China and North Korea have a good relationship, they each have their own considerations. For example, the cause of the Korean War was that the North Korean side started the Korean War without notifying China first.
Korean War
In 1950, the plan of the new Chinese government was to first dispatch 600,000 troops to completely recover Taiwan, and then to help the DPRK resolve the Korean Peninsula issue after it had freed up its own hands.
As a result, the North Korean side took the first action, and the plans of the new Chinese side were completely disrupted, and they had to send volunteers to fight in North Korea in October 1950.
Even today, China and North Korea are not fully in agreement on some aspects that make it difficult for China to speak to North Korea.
If China really wants to be able to influence North Korea's decision-making, as the West has spread rumors, then North Korea will not have nuclear weapons.
After all, no country in the world wants its neighbors to have nuclear weapons.
North Korean nuclear weapons
Therefore, after a military conflict breaks out between China and the United States over China's Taiwan issue, the DPRK is likely to once again attack the ROK first without notifying China.
Based on geopolitical considerations, China must help North Korea. At that time, it is very likely that there will be a "Second War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea".
Japan and China on the Taiwan Strait issue
The second country is Japan.
Japan's involvement in China's Taiwan Strait issue is mainly due to two reasons: geopolitical and military.
In terms of geopolitics, on the one hand, it is because there are US troops stationed in Japan, and on the other hand, because the Taiwan Strait of China is Japan's "chokepoint".
At present, Japan has the U.S. Seventh Fleet, and the total strength of the U.S. military exceeds 30,000. With this size of the army, Japan was directly crushed to death, allowing Japan to be fully controlled by the United States from economy to diplomacy to politics.
U.S. Forces in Japan
Therefore, on the issue of China's Taiwan, Japan, which is under the control of the United States, must move in step with the United States, and it can only stubbornly work with the United States to do things on the Taiwan issue.
In addition, the Taiwan Strait of China is an area that has a very large impact on Japan's economy, because the vast majority of ships connecting Japan and the Indian Ocean route pass through the Taiwan Strait.
If Chinese mainland fully controls the Taiwan Strait, it will be tantamount to a thorn in the Japanese economy.
China Taiwan Strait
The above two reasons give Japan the motivation to intervene in China's Taiwan issue.
On military issues, the Sea of Japan has become the "anti-submarine detachment of the US Seventh Fleet" after being carefully designed by the United States.
Although Japan's own naval combat capability is not strong, Japan's anti-submarine capability is still a headache for China's underwater military forces.
Therefore, for the United States, it is necessary for it to rush Japan to war with China in the middle of the war.
Sea of Japan since
The complex relationship between China and the Philippines
The third country is the Philippines.
On the one hand, the Philippines is one of the member states of ASEAN, and ASEAN is an organization that China is very concerned about, and the mainland has a lot of cooperation with this organization.
On the other hand, the Philippines is the spokesperson of the United States in the South China Sea, and it is the country with the worst relations with China in the entire South China Sea and its surrounding regions.
Of course, when it comes to relations between the Philippines and China, the "territorial dispute" between the mainland and the Philippines has to be mentioned. Everyone knows that the Philippines has forcibly occupied Ren'ai Jiao on the mainland, and in the past few years, conflicts have broken out between China and the Philippines on this issue.
A Philippine ship beached at Second Thomas Shoal
The essence of the Ren'ai Jiao issue is that the United States is pushing the Philippines and China against each other.
The United States wants the Philippines to go to war with China, so that the situation in the South China Sea will be very chaotic, and the United States can take advantage of the situation.
Therefore, from the perspective of development, China does not want to go to war with the Philippines. As we said above, the Philippines is a member of ASEAN, and ASEAN is a very important partner of China.
This is also why China has always maintained its sovereignty over the Ren'ai Jiao issue on the premise of reducing major matters to small matters and trivial matters to small ones, and to use cold weapons in the event of a military conflict.
Fortunately, the Philippines also knows what the United States is thinking.
Philippine-U.S. diplomacy
Therefore, this country also has a lot of concerns about the Ren'ai Jiao issue, and tries not to make a big deal out of it when there are contradictions with China.
As far as the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao is concerned, the likelihood of a war between China and the Philippines is far less likely than the possibility of Japan and South Korea being drawn into a "Sino-US war in the Taiwan Strait."
Resources:
[1] Finance Associated Press, "The Japanese Government Formulates "Response" Measures for the So-called "Taiwan Incident", and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council Responds"
[2] The Paper, "Before entering the DPRK, I thought about liberating Taiwan; It's too old to get old, but Taiwan will definitely be liberated."