With a big victory for the far right in the first round of the French parliamentary election, Macron's bet backfired?

Once again, France stands at the threshold of history.

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on June 30, France held the first round of voting in the National Assembly election on the same day. Exit polls released that night showed that the far-right party National Alliance led the way with 34% support; The new Left Alliance, the New Popular Front, received 28.1 percent of the vote; President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition "Together" came in third with 20.3 percent of the vote. The final result will depend on the second round of voting to be held on July 7.

After the first round of elections, Macron called on voters to form a "broader coalition" in the second round to block the right. However, some media believe that Macron's bet may be the opposite.

"Macron, the biggest loser"

According to a Reuters report on June 30, the results of exit polls after the first round of voting were basically in line with the results predicted before the vote, and supporters of the National Alliance cheered. However, the anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic National Alliance, has not yet made it clear whether it will engage in "left-right co-governance" with Macron's pro-European ruling coalition after the second round of voting.

The American political news website Politico reported that despite the victory of the National Alliance in the first round of voting, the party's leader Le Pen still has his eyes on the second round of the election.

"The French people have shown unequivocally that they are willing to turn the page after seven years of corrosive forces [leadership]," Le Pen said. But we haven't really won yet, and the second round of voting will be decisive. ”

The report pointed out that the chairman of the National Alliance, the "post-95" Baldela, who is considered likely to become the new French prime minister, did not criticize the ruling coalition after the first round of voting, but aimed at the left, which ranked second in the election.

Baldra called the left-wing coalition "New Popular Front" (NFP) "an existential threat to France" and that the alliance would open the French borders to migrants "without moral boundaries". "It's time to put power in the hands of leaders who understand you and care about you," Baldra said. ”

Politico said that the biggest loser on election night may be Macron. His centrist faction, which currently holds 250 seats in parliament, is expected to lose dozens of seats after this election.

After losing to the National Alliance in the European Parliament elections in June this year, Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the early holding of parliamentary elections. This drew criticism from allies such as French Economy Minister Le Maire and former Prime Minister Philippe.

The Washington Post published an article pointing out that Macron does not admit defeat. In a statement, he welcomed the high turnout in this election (between 65.5 and 69.7 percent) and called for a "broad coalition" in the second round of voting. But his bet on early elections is expected to backfire, and his influence on French politics is "rapidly waning"

According to the report, Macron appears to be betting that in order to prevent the far right from coming to power, his supporters will be mobilized and the mission of the ruling coalition will be strengthened. But Macron underestimated the far right and the left, and despite the deep differences between the two factions, to a certain extent, the two factions were able to unite by opposing Macron.

On June 30, 2024 local time, the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election began. Visual China Diagram

"Left" and "right" counteract

According to the Washington Post, the results of the first round of voting may panic many other European countries. As one of the founding members of the European Union and the second largest economy in the European Union, France is the driving force behind EU affairs. Although the National Alliance no longer advocates "Brexit", many of the party's ideas are not in line with EU policy.

Because of the potential uncertainty that a National Rassemblement victory in the parliamentary elections would bring, Euronews pointed out that the left-wing coalition New Popular Front wants to be a force against the far right.

According to the report, the syriza coalition includes a number of moderates, as well as parties with a more left-wing stance. These parties have long opposed Macron's policies, arguing that they further exacerbate inequality. For example, these parties want Macron to abolish controversial retirement reforms, raise the minimum wage to 1,600 euros (about 12,504 yuan) per month, and increase support for climate issues.

Boris Tavernier, one of the candidates of the Syriza party, has lived in Lyon for more than 20 years. He told Euronews that food security is linked to a number of topics such as agriculture, health and the environment, but that there is a lack of a representative in Parliament. "I told myself that it was going to be a tough three years (before the next presidential election, the 2027 presidential election). But I'm not going to sit still. ”

In addition, Syriza opposes the "demonization" of it by the ruling coalition. Tavernier further said: "It's crazy that Macron is doing everything to demonize the far right and then call us 'scumbags'. ”

However, the report pointed out that compared with the ruling coalition and the National Alliance, it is difficult for the left-wing coalition to emerge as a whole. In every debate, the ruling coalition sends Prime Minister Attar and the National Rally sends Bardra, but the Left Alliance keeps changing representatives.

The Guardian published an article pointing out that most analysts believe that the most likely outcome after this parliamentary election is a polarization of the French parliament. Because it is almost impossible to reach a consensus between the far right, the left-wing coalition and Macron's few allies, which has led to the paralysis of French politics.

In order to block the far-right from coming to power, Macron and the left-wing coalition can call on their supporters to vote tactically in the second round of voting, according to a BBC analysis. That is, if a candidate from his party is eliminated in a constituency, then those supporters can vote for anyone who opposes the National Alliance. The problem is that proponents may not do that.

It is worth noting that there are a large number of "triangular constituencies" in the second round of voting, that is, in the second round of voting, many constituencies will see three candidates facing each other, i.e. one from the left, one from the center, and one from the right. This made it difficult for the anti-National coalition to gather votes.

This happened because of the high turnout and Macron's "lightning" announcement of parliamentary elections that prevented the small parties from uniting, so the votes were concentrated in these three political blocs.

The "Mbappe Effect"

In addition to the unsurprising victory of the far right, the Guardian pointed out that the voter turnout in this election is the highest in nearly 40 years.

According to the report, Mujtaba Rahman, head of European analysis at Eurasia Group, a global political risk consulting firm, said on her personal social platform that a high turnout may mean that more candidates with the third highest support in the constituency will enter the second round of the election.

"Because it allows the left and the center to come to an agreement to withdraw the party's lowest-ranked candidate and allow others to compete against the far-right candidate in the second round," Rahman said. The outcome of these tactical alliances could determine whether the National Alliance can "get close" to a parliamentary majority in the second round, Rahman added. Currently, the French National Assembly has a total of 577 seats, with an absolute majority of 289 seats.

The high turnout in the first round of the French parliamentary election is partly due to the celebrity effect. The New York Times previously published an article pointing out that before this vote, Mbappe, the captain of the French national football team and a North African immigrant ancestry, publicly called on young people to vote, and said that he opposes extremes, divisive ideas, and political indifference.

The 25-year-old said: "That's why I want to speak up for my generation. Because when I was younger, I used to think that even if I spoke up, I couldn't change everything. ”

In the wake of Mbappe's remarks, a poll by the French pollster IFOP showed that 57 percent of respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 said they would vote in the first round. In the 2022 parliamentary elections, only 30% of this age group voted. In addition, the total turnout in the 2022 French parliamentary elections was about 46%, about 20 percentage points lower than this one.

In addition, Mbappe's remarks also caused the support of the National Alliance to drop briefly. Among those aged 18 to 34, the party's support fell from 31 percent to 27 percent.

In addition to the short-lived "Mbappe effect", PBS published an article pointing out that French voters believe it is necessary to vote to express disappointment with those who have and seek power.

Philippe Lempereur, a 64-year-old voter, is tired of politicians on the left, center and right. In his opinion, politicians from these parties cannot ensure that people work together on issues such as having shelter and having enough food.

"We default to voting as the least bad option," Lempelle said. I'd rather vote than do nothing. ”

From voters' perspectives, they considered everything from immigration to the rising cost of living. As France becomes increasingly divided between the far right and the left, Macron, who is at the center of politics, is unpopular and has been weakened.

The report pointed out that the results of the first round of elections do not represent the composition of the new National Assembly, but represent the mood of voters.

Alain Duhamel, a French journalist and political commentator, believes that Macron's move to dissolve parliament is seen as "a reaction to a wounded pride and a lesson to him about the bad results of the vote." "When Macron told voters that it was their duty to vote against the far right and the left in elections, he reinforced his image as an arrogant leader.