The conflict between Lebanon and Israel has reached the point where it is on the verge of breaking out. Iran has warned that if Israel launches a full-scale military aggression against Lebanon, a devastating war will ensue and all resistance fronts will be fully engaged. Israel then threatened that Iran should be destroyed.
At present, the US military has assembled on the Lebanese-Israeli border and is ready to "evacuate" overseas Chinese as soon as the conflict breaks out. At the same time, many countries, including the United States, Russia, the Netherlands, Canada, Sweden and other countries have issued travel warnings. Even the Chinese Embassy in Lebanon has issued a safety reminder, urging Chinese people to carefully plan their trips and avoid sensitive areas.
Even China has begun to prepare, which is enough to prove that the outbreak of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict is inevitable. This situation will occur, mainly because of the forces involved in it now, Allah in Lebanon, Israel, and the United States all have reasons to intervene.
Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to Lebanon
Since the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza, Allah has continued to escalate its attacks on the Lebanese-Israeli border. It can be said that this force is fully prepared for a head-on confrontation with Israel. The Lebanese Allah Party itself is not afraid to engage Israel, and in the 2006 Lebanese-Israeli conflict, Allah party prevailed.
The situation faced by the Israeli army on the Lebanese-Israeli border at that time was very similar to that in Gaza today: the army first hoped to destroy the Lebanese Allah rocket and missile bases on the border with air strikes, and after finding that it could not achieve its goal, it decided to send the army chief to "plow the hole" against the Allah forces, but in the end it completely failed.
It's just that the "halo" gilded by several Middle East wars in the last century is too dazzling, and the United States and Israel control the field of public opinion, so even if Israel actually loses, the outside world does not fully understand this. Now, more than a decade later, the opportunity for Allah Lebanon to "vindicate its name" has finally arrived.
Lebanese Allah
Allah, backed by Iran, has grown into the most powerful force in the Arc of Resistance faction. However, the Israeli army's tactics and capabilities have not improved at all, and it is still attacking Gaza with the old thinking of more than 10 years ago, and it is difficult to distinguish it from Hamas, which is extremely short of military supplies and supplies.
Under the circumstances of this and the other, Allah in Lebanon now looks at the mentality of the Israeli army, and sums it up in one sentence: "I am not afraid of you coming, I am afraid that you will not come." However, it is important to note here that Allah and the Lebanese Government are two different political entities, and the whole of South Lebanon is under the actual control of Allah.
Therefore, even if the Lebanese Government and the United States envoys meet together to call for a ceasefire, the impact on the situation on the ground will be limited. And the situation of Israel and the United States is that it is difficult to ride a tiger and have to fight. In order to distract from Gaza's military defeat and secure his position as prime minister, Netanyahu must keep the war burning in the Middle East.
American
Now the internal opposition in Israel and the Biden administration are clearly ready to conspire to push Netanyahu out and take the blame for the military failure and public opinion failure of the Gaza conflict. Two of Israel's heavyweight oppositionists, Benny Gantz and Gallant, have both publicly visited the United States, and Netanyahu's political future is in shambles.
Netanyahu wants to "renew his life", and there is only one way to survive, which is to continue to drag the conflict on. At the same time, for Israel, the use of troops against Lebanon can be regarded as a "battle of life and death". The foundation of Israel's statehood in the Middle East is absolute military hegemony established with the full support of the United States and the West.
Relying on its victories in the first five Middle East wars, Israel has successfully practiced this doctrine of "cumulative deterrence". But now the situation has changed, and the significance of the Gaza conflict that broke out in October last year is not only that Israel lost the battle and fought ugly, but also that the Israeli army will lose and will be beaten by infantry who lack food and clothing in street battles, which was seen by the whole world for the first time.
Israeli army
As mentioned above, the Israeli army lost badly against Allah in 2006. After this conflict, although Israel relied on the advantage of public opinion to barely control the situation and still left the impression of "abundant martial virtues" to the outside world, the arc of resistance began to flourish throughout the Middle East, and eventually developed into a deadly security threat to Israel.
And in the Gaza conflict that has been fought since last year, Israel can't even control the field of public opinion. The "golden body" has been broken, there are strong enemies outside, and if Israel does not reignite a new round of conflict, there will be a question mark over whether the regime itself can continue to survive in the Middle East.
For Israel, this battle with Allah in Lebanon must not only be fought, but also won. The only way to win the war is to expand the conflict, completely drag the United States into the water, and turn this conflict from a Palestinian-Israeli conflict, a Lebanese-Israeli conflict, to a Lebanese-American conflict, or even a US-Iran conflict, and then use the United States to regain a foothold in the Middle East.
Mii
As far as the United States is concerned, the current situation is in line with the old saying: every overseas military base and every overseas agent of the US military will eventually become a noose around the neck of the White House. Israel is the core fulcrum of the U.S. Middle East strategy and a globally recognized core ally.
Israel is determined to fight, and if the United States sits idly by, then agents elsewhere will begin to think about the question: The United States can't even save Israel, can it really support me? As soon as this problem arises, the global alliance system of the United States is not far from collapsing. Therefore, even if the United States does not want to see chaos in the Middle East, it can only grit its teeth and support Israel to the end.
The White House has already said before that it "can't stop" this round of Israeli military action. Recently, the US amphibious assault ship "Wasp" has entered the Mediterranean, and the aircraft carrier "Roosevelt" is also on its way to the Red Sea. Obviously, the United States, the broken ship of Israel, will not be able to jump in any way.
In addition to the United States, once a conflict breaks out between Lebanon and Israel, there is a great probability that European countries will be involved. Allah has said that if conflict breaks out, all forces that provide military support to Israel, whether in Israel or not, will be targeted, and the EU country Cyprus happens to be an outpost for Israeli aid.
If the United States is determined to support Israel, it will never allow Europe to stand alone. At that time, Eastern Europe will face the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the Mediterranean Sea will face the conflict between Lebanon and Israel, and Europe's politics and economy may usher in a round of huge shocks. If things do go in this direction, then to put it mildly, Israel will become the "gravedigger" of the global order dominated by the United States and the West.
As long as the United States and Europe are drawn into the chaos in the Middle East, then Russia will definitely increase its offensive in the eastern battlefield of Ukraine, and Ukraine, which is already powerless, is likely to be defeated within one to two years. At the same time, China will gain more bargaining chips and space in Northeast Asia and the South China Sea. The United States and Europe have fallen into an unbreakable deadlock, and the global order dominated by the United States and the West will soon usher in a life-and-death turning point.
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