Previous:
Although some countries, led by the United States, are still deliberately creating divisions in an attempt to block the process of globalization, undermine global cooperation, and isolate themselves, the general trend of global interconnectedness is still unavoidable. France has always been a country with the significance of a vane of the West, and many revolutions that have taken place in the West have taken place in France. After suffering a crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections, Macron made a political gamble to call for early elections to the National Assembly. But the results of the first round of voting showed that Macron lost the bet this time. Macron's defeat is not just his personal failure, but the failure of the entire political situation in the West, the failure of the Western-dominated governance system.
1
Macron suffered a crushing defeat as expected, and the next step will be very difficult. After suffering a crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections, Macron, who refused to admit defeat, thought of a Jedi counterattack, that is, to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections. The main reason why Macron made such a gamble was to use this opportunity to warn the people to stand up and save France and avoid France from falling into great danger. But it is clear that Macron misassessed the situation and underestimated the voters' determination to change. Macron's sudden decision is generally considered by Western countries such as the United States and Europe to be gambling, and many Western countries are ready for Macron's defeat.
On June 30, local time, the French National Assembly election was held as scheduled. There were not many surprises in the outcome of the election, Macron lost the bet, and what is slightly surprising is that Macron not only lost this time but lost very badly. Exit polls released on the evening of June 30 showed that the far-right party National Alliance led with 34 percent of the vote, the left-wing coalition New Popular Front came in second with 28.1 percent of the vote, and the ruling coalition Together came in third with 20.3 percent. If the current situation continues, then the far right will win a big victory, while Macron will suffer a very painful defeat. This failure even made Macron's next term difficult for him.
According to the French forecast, if voters vote according to the first stage of voting, the far-right will be expected to win 240 to 270 of the 577 seats in the French parliament, the pan-syriza will be expected to win 180 to 200 seats, and the Macron camp will only have 60 to 90 seats. Macron's camp currently has 245 seats, and if the election results are only 90 or even 60 seats left, it will be an absolutely humiliating fiasco. If Macron's ruling camp does not reverse the situation on July 7, it will face a transition from a majority to a minority in the National Assembly, which will make it extremely difficult for him to pursue his policies in the future.
Several important data, all of which are not in favor of Macron, are difficult to be optimistic about on July 7. One of the statistics was that the voter turnout exceeded 65 percent, the highest in more than 40 years. The second data, Le Pen, the leader of the "National Alliance", was elected in the first round with a high vote, with a vote rate of 58.21%. Both of these figures show that the situation that Macron fears the most is really emerging. The high turnout shows that most of the people want to stand up and make their own efforts to change the situation. Most of the people who participated in the elections were in search of change, which is clearly not good for Macron. The overwhelming election of Le Pen, who changed her extreme strategy, shows a change in the mentality of French voters, which is also not good for Macron. On July 7, France is about to hold a second round of elections, and the United States and Europe are worried that the election results on this day will detonate a crisis in the entire West.
2
Macron lost, but this is obviously not just Macron's business, not just France's, but the entire United States, Europe and even the entire West. France is one of Europe's leading bellwethers and is a bellwether on many issues, including security. After the first round of the election, large numbers of people in France took to the streets, both celebrating their victories and venting their anger. Huge crowds rushed into the streets of Paris, putting the romantic city in great danger. A large number of cars were set on fire, many buildings were burning, and the police began to use tear gas to disperse the crowd. Even more worrying than the chaos on the spot is the possibility that French politics could descend into chaos.
If a far-right party wins the election, it will inevitably affect the formulation of relevant French policy. Le Pen made it clear that a victory would bring an end to mass immigration and allow France to reindustrialize for the benefit of the French people. However, such a policy will inevitably lead to a series of problems, especially affecting France's relations with Europe and France's relations with the United States. The United States and Europe are both very concerned about the situation in France, and the United States expressed similar concerns when Macron decided to hold an early election. Both the United States and Europe are concerned that a shift in French policy will make it difficult for the West to agree on Ukraine policy, leading to chaos across Europe.
France, as one of the leading big brothers in Europe, will inevitably play an exemplary role in the event of a serious problem, which will lead to the same problem in the whole of Europe. At present, the whole of Europe is facing similar problems as France, that is, economic development has been blocked, and the wealth harvest of the United States has caused the people's living standards to stagnate for a long time or even declined. There is a serious right-winging, populist trend across Europe, and this trend is becoming more and more obvious. The problem facing the United States and the Western world is similar, that is, the problem of not being able to find a breakthrough in development after the dividends of the industrial revolution and the dividends of deadly plunder are exhausted. Macron's defeat could set off a wave of "rightism" in the West, which is what the West is most worried about.
3
Zelensky already has a premonition that the situation is not good, that the situation may change, and the population of the entire Western country is beginning to get tired of supporting Ukraine. Macron is the most staunch supporter of Ukraine, but once the far-right parties gain power, France's policy of aiding Ukraine will change. Not only France, but also many European countries have begun to show a tendency to abandon Ukraine, and a large number of people have begun to be obviously dissatisfied with the large amount of money to aid Ukraine. Even the United States, the core country that supports Ukraine, is now showing signs of opposing its support for Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly made it clear that the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be ended in a few weeks. Once Trump takes office, Zelensky's support will inevitably decrease.
Conclusion:
The change in the situation did not happen overnight, but was the result of long-term accumulation. The problems that have arisen in France are also the result of a combination of problems over the decades. Now serious problems have begun to emerge in the entire West, such as poor operation, rigid political system, and irreconcilable contradictions caused by the solidification of interests. For Ukraine, the change in the hearts of the people in the West is a clear signal that Zelensky and Ukraine must find a way to end the conflict through negotiations as soon as possible.