A miscellaneous essay on the eve of the revolution

2020 has gone through three months, from the war at the beginning of the year to the current oil price war, it feels like everywhere is the existence of oil, and then the outbreak of the epidemic, things are a bit much, everyone has not reacted, the crisis has come again.

This article was written on March 29, 2020, with some thoughts on the disaster.

Regarding the damage caused by the epidemic to the economic system, everyone should have a heart of awe, and this direct destruction bomb for all walks of life has directly led to the cliff-like decline of multinational economies. But what I want to talk about today is that at present I don't pay much attention to the situation of the epidemic in foreign countries, because sooner or later the crisis will pass, and what we have to consider now is some of the issues that we will face after the end of the epidemic: Sino-US relations.

First of all, my first point:

Sino-US relations will continue to deteriorate, and the sweater war may escalate.

Second point:

From an investment perspective, I prefer to buy U.S. stocks rather than cancer stocks.

Third point:

The property market is important to stabilize, but don't let it rise excessively.

Fourth point:

After the end of the epidemic, the bull market in us stocks continues, and the US financial system is stronger and more perfect.

Fifth point:

Cash is a pile of waste paper, use it quickly, don't pinch it.

Now to explain. First of all, the intuitive feeling that the epidemic brought to me is the big release of water, which everyone also knows, is the global scope of large water release, the United States this time the release of water is actually put to the enterprise, the purpose is very clear, to help enterprises continue to develop, while the rise in unemployment on the one hand for enterprises to reduce some of the pressure, so the epidemic is actually to help the development of American enterprises. The money released by the United States is completely enough to maintain the bull market of the US stock market to continue, not to mention that there will be a general election this year, everyone does not have to worry too much about the collapse of the US stock market, some people are more anxious than you. So based on some bits and pieces of my opinion and my personal experience, I think the relationship between China and the United States is the most urgent thing right now, not the epidemic. If the epidemic has just improved and the Sino-US trade war continues to deteriorate, it will be a terrible thing, and it will be an absolute devastating blow for most countries.

The 19-year trade war has prompted a six-month bull market for Bitcoin.

At present, the property market has begun to fall, a cliff-like decline. The most important property of Our residents is the house, the country wants to maintain the stability of the people's hearts, stable housing prices is the most important, but can not rise too much or even better not to rise, just stabilize. At this juncture, the rise in house prices is also very quick from the bubble bursting, and then it will be a cliff-like decline, and the government will never want to see this scene.

A shares are now a lot of companies in fact the value is completely detached, so there will be Chinese is indeed speculating in stocks. Comparing the stock markets of China and the United States, I recommend that you compare the price-earnings ratio of the index yourself, do not think that the US stock market is very expensive or the bubble is very large with "Shanghai Index 2800, Dow Jones 22000", this kind of thinking is very leek, just like "Bitcoin 6000 US dollars, so expensive". This view is not to say that there are no good companies in cancer stocks, but for me personally, more stocks in cancer stocks are for cutting leeks, and the probability of making money in US stocks is greater. Moreover, my fourth point of view is complemented by my second point of view, my personal judgment is that the US stock market will not collapse, but the bull market will continue.

Secondly, through China's efforts, foreign capital began to embrace China's stock market, but this time the circuit breaker of the US stock market caused many American companies to fall out of the "gold pit", and the long-term value must have been greater than the price, which naturally explained the reason for the Dow Jones' rebound.

Let's talk about the fifth point, ordinary people seem to have crises coexisting, and smart and adventurous people are full of opportunities. Dario also said that cash is a pile of garbage, especially when danger comes. I feel very deeply these days, why the poor people continue to be poor, related to the environment, but more is the way of thinking. In the face of opportunity choices, they all think that waiting, waiting for the trend to be obvious, waiting for the fall to rise I am in, I am not saying that this way is not right, but this way of thinking leads many people to wait is the highest point. People who bought a house in Shenzhen with cash in 2008 will not read my articles; people who have opened Tmall Taobao stores with platform sponsorship in 11 years will not listen to me. I would say that money doesn't matter. The country is not stupid, this time the oil price fell so badly, if the country and most people think the same, will not take the full dollar to the bottom of the oil. Money can be printed, but your bank's interest rate will never run out of inflation. Value-added assets are king. Therefore, the statement that cash is king is not feasible most of the time, and good assets are king!

In summary, I am still firmly bullish on Bitcoin, and I am very responsible to tell you that $6,000 bitcoin is really cheap! Bitcoin's bull market hasn't started yet, but it's coming soon, are you ready?