Per reporter: Pei Jianru Per editor: Sun Lei, He Xiaotao
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also cast a shadow over the global automotive industry.
Image source: Visual China
According to Bloomberg news on February 28, Toyota Motor spokesman said that Toyota Motor's factory in Russia is operating normally, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has no impact on the company's business at present, and Toyota Motor will continue to closely monitor and assess the situation.
But many car companies are not so lucky. According to CCTV financial reports, affected by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the factories of many multinational companies in Ukraine have recently entered a state of shutdown. Due to the delay in the production of parts in Ukraine, Volkswagen's two plants in Germany will also have to stop production for several days.
In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has brought great uncertainty to China's automotive industry, and car companies should respond flexibly, protect their own interests, and achieve the balanced development of China's automobile exports.
Some car companies have been forced to stop production
In fact, Russia is the investment of many automakers. It is understood that Volkswagen, BMW Group, Mercedes-Benz, Renault Group, Hyundai Group, Great Wall Motors and many other car companies have invested in Russia to set up factories.
Among them, Volkswagen has about 4,000 employees working at its plant in Kaluga in southwest Moscow; BMW Group recently extended its expiring partnership with a Russian automaker until 2028 and underwent a €350 million expansion at its Kaliningrad plant; and Great Wall Motor's Tula plant in Russia went on production in 2019 with a $500 million project and a planned annual production capacity of 150,000 units.
At present, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has begun to spread, and many car companies have stopped work and stopped production in their factories in Russia. Reuters reported that Renault said on February 25 that it would suspend some operations at the auto assembly plant in Russia due to shortages of spare parts and transportation difficulties. "The disruption was mainly due to stricter border controls in transit countries, and we were forced to change some of our established logistics routes." Renault's Russian subsidiary said.
Russian automaker Avtovaz, which renault-controlled, also said it could suspend part of the assembly line at a factory in central Russia due to continued shortages of electronic components around the world; Finnish tire manufacturer Nokian Tire said it was moving some key product lines from Russia to Finland and the United States in response to further sanctions that Russia could face.
A spokesman for Hyundai Motor Group said: "We have been closely monitoring the situation because it is expected that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to a recession and a weakening of the ruble."
Great Wall Motor Securities Department also recently said that the production and sales of Great Wall Motor's Russian plant will not be affected by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Great Wall Motor's export business to Ukraine may be affected in the short term, but there is no problem in the long run.
It is worth noting that Russia is also an important source of the metal "palladium", which is an important raw material for chip manufacturing. Industry analysts believe that under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, The sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia may not only impact the chip industry chain, but also inevitably cause a major impact on the layout of traditional car companies in Russia, and the already tight industrial chain and price of global automobile supply will face greater pressure.
Chinese car companies may face losses in exports
According to IHS Markit data, Renault Group accounted for 39.5% of Russia's automobile production; Hyundai Group accounted for 27.2%. In terms of market share, in the Russian auto market, except for the local brand Rada (a brand of The largest Russian car manufacturer AvtoVaz) occupying about 20% of the market share, the other market share is occupied by foreign brands. Among them, Volkswagen has a 12.2% market share in the Russian automotive market, followed by Toyota Motor with a 5.5% share.
Tim Urquhart, chief automotive analyst at IHS Europe, said: "The world's largest automakers don't make a lot of money from Russia, but in terms of risk, Renault is clearly the most risky company. Russia has been much worse than before in the last few years, and I don't think recent events will change that. ”
Over the past three years, the Russian auto market has sold between 1.6 million and 1.75 million vehicles a year, accounting for only about 2% of global car sales in 2021, according to public data.
Focusing on China's auto exports, Cui Dongshu believes that China's auto exports to Russia have performed relatively strongly in recent years. In 2021, China's automobile exports to Russia reached about 122,800 units, and exports rose to $1.97 billion.
Image source: Photo by reporter Sun Tongtong (data map)
"The performance of Chinese car companies is extremely excellent, especially the export of Chinese passenger cars, accounting for nearly 80% of the total export volume. But for now, China's exports to Russia face huge uncertainties. Cui Dongshu believes that "in the Exports to Russia and the Exports to Ukraine, the proportion of trucks in the Chinese automotive industry is relatively large, and the export of special vehicles is also more important, so for Russia and Ukraine, transportation is very important." The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is bound to be an international loss, especially for Chinese car companies, which are bound to face the loss of insufficient demand. ”
In addition, Cui Dongshu believes that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the supply of chips is relatively limited. At present, the rare gas inventory of global semiconductor companies has been used normally for 6 months without any problems. The U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association has also previously said that Russia is only a small market in the chip industry, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not pose a threat to chip supply. The association said that european and American sanctions against Russia are also unlikely to have a significant impact on the industry's sales situation.
"Most chip companies said that they have made sufficient preparations to accelerate the construction of a diversified supply chain system to cope with the possible sharp supply shortage, so the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may not be so intense, and under the violent impact of the previous epidemic and other factors, the industry's supply capacity has been greatly improved and improved." Cui Dongshu said.
Reporter | Pei Jianru
Editor| Sun Lei, He Xiaotao, Wang Jiaqi
Proofreader | Sun Zhicheng
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Wars broke out in Russia and Ukraine, and the global market was shaken