Introduction: Musk said in response to netizens' questions: The mileage of electric vehicles is too high and meaningless. Nowadays, brands are pursuing long-endurance on the road further and further, high-end models use 100kW·h or even 150kW·h batteries. Problems such as large batteries and long charging time cannot be ignored. So is the pursuit of long battery life by manufacturers and consumers pseudo-demand?
This wave I stand Musk! In fact, as early as 2020, I clearly expressed a point of view: the mileage of new energy vehicles is not as long as possible.
Consumers think, wait another three or five years, buy an electric car with a range of 1,000 kilometers, how good!
This desire, though beautiful, is irrational. What drives this irrational idea is the "retaliatory compensation" of mileage anxiety on the one hand, and the blind optimism of technology on the other hand.
First, do you really need that long battery life?
As shown in the figure, some people have counted the daily travel characteristics of Beijing car owners: 80% of daily trips are under 50 kilometers, and 95% of trips are under 100 kilometers.
Even if you discount 50%, 200 km of endurance is enough; consider the unexpected situation, even if 200 km is not enough, 400, 600 km is enough, right?
My first electric car, when I bought it, I had no bottom, so I picked the long endurance to buy, NEDC range 670 kilometers. 70,000 kilometers down, to be fair, the original purchase of 480 kilometers of the standard version is also enough.
The second electric car, I should have bought a slightly lower endurance, completely enough.
In short: most consumers' travel needs have boundaries. When the endurance is low, the benefit of improving the endurance is great; when the endurance reaches 600 kilometers, the continuous improvement is only to meet those very few needs.
After the charging infrastructure is further improved, consumers' demand for battery life will be further reduced.
That's why Musk will say: The range of electric cars is too high to make sense - it makes sense for a very few people, and it doesn't mean anything to most people.
Second, it is difficult to further improve battery technology
At the cell level, from 523 to 622 to 811, the energy density continues to increase. After 811, increasing energy density comes at a reduced safety cost – meaning more power is spent on thermal management, so the overall performance is not necessarily better than the 523.
At the Pack level, from the molded package blade battery and CTP CTC and skateboard chassis, the energy density of the system is also increasing.
The potential for further improvement is very small, the difficulty is very large, like Weilai's 150kWh battery pack, it takes the battery cell and the group to make the strength to eat milk to achieve, and the cost must also be greatly improved.
Buying a car with a range of 1,000 kilometers, it is likely to encounter a situation: only the first 50% of the electricity is used, the next 50% is rarely used, and the last 30% is never used. There is no battery in use, and you have to run on your back every day, which is a waste of resources!
Even if a 150kWh battery pack is made, consumers may not necessarily pay for it, so Musk said: it will have a negative impact on processing power, efficiency and overall performance.
Of course, WEILAI can change the power, you can try the 150kWh battery pack. Non-replacement electric vehicles, with 150kWh battery packs, are more of a symbolic meaning, and not necessarily many consumers pay.
To sum up: when the electric vehicle has a long endurance of 600 to 800 kilometers, it has approached or reached the upper limit of consumer travel demand and the upper limit of battery technology, and it is difficult to increase the endurance technology, and the demand is not necessary, so this wave of musk.