In the context of the difficulty of "entering the contract" quickly and inflation, the two countries must consider the problem of "stop loss".
On May 18, 2022 local time, Finland and Sweden officially applied to join NATO, and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg once again expressed a "warm welcome". Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Text | Xu Lifan
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg admitted on June 15 that sweden and Finland were too optimistic in assessing nato's membership and did not take into account turkey's subsequent questions, according to media reports.
Since Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in May, although the time limit for "accession" has not been clearly defined, the two countries have actually hoped to negotiate this matter during the NATO Summit in Madrid on June 29. But now it seems clear that this has become an impossible task. Turkey's clear opposition is not the only reason.
On May 17, 2022 local time, Swedish Prime Minister Anderson (right) and Finnish President Niinistö, who visited Stockholm, attended a press conference. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Neither Rt-Finnish can keep up with Turkey's "asking price"
Previously, the Beijing brewery has talked about the obstruction of Ruifen's "entry into the contract" because turkey is strongly opposed.
Turkey is extremely unhappy with Sweden, Finland hosting supporters of the PKK and the Gulen Movement. For years, both the PKK and the Gülen movement were considered by Turkey to be "elbow-and-arm problems" and spared no effort to crack down on them.
Turkey has asked Sweden and Finland to extradite supporters of the PKK and the Gulen Movement, but has been refused. After Turkey entered northern Syria in 2019 and took military action against the Syrian-Kudistan Armed Democratic Alliance Party (PYD) and the People's Defense Army (YPG), Sweden and Finland also imposed sanctions on Turkey for arms embargoes.
Because of these grievances, Turkey opposed the "accession" of Sweden and Finland and claimed that "NATO cannot become an organization that supports terrorism."
In fact, in order to join NATO, Sweden and Finland have relaxed their views on issues such as the Kurds that Turkey is concerned about. However, only PKK is now recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, Europe and Turkey, but only Turkey is considered a terrorist organization by PYD and YPG in Syria.
Even if Sweden and Finland are interested in changing their policies against the Kurds in their territory, they need to be famous. In the case that the PYD and YPG are not considered terrorist organizations, Sweden and Finland will change their policies and treat their supporters severely, which is bound to cause political turmoil. Therefore, Ruifen and Finland did not dare to act rashly.
In other words, for Turkey's "asking price", The two countries cannot keep up now.
On May 18, 2022 local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan openly expressed his opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO in Ankara. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Turkey fears it is more "different" in NATO
It should also be noted that Turkey is almost the only "alternative" country in NATO, which is different from other NATO members in terms of religious culture, level of development and geopolitical considerations.
This has been made clear in the generational struggle between Turkey and Greece.
In the Greek War of Independence from 1821 to 1829, Greece was supported by Britain and France and successfully separated from the Ottoman Empire.
In the Balkan Wars of 1912, Greece again received assistance from the great powers, defeated Turkey, and gained most of the islands in the Aegean Sea, including Crete. The seabed is now rich in natural gas resources.
In 1974, Greece and Turkey went to war in Cyprus, Greece withdrew from NATO, and the United States stopped military assistance to Turkey in order to maintain NATO unity, almost letting Turkey side with the Soviet Union.
In the past two years, Greece and Turkey have been fighting for natural gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean, and Western countries have sided with Greece. A clear example is that the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum set up by Greece in 2019 excluded Turkey and was strongly opposed by Turkey, but the United States, France and other countries have become observers of the forum.
When Greece joined NATO for the second time in 1980, Turkey did not stop it. But that hasn't improved relations between the two countries, much to Turkey's regrets.
Sweden and Finland are called "mature democracies", and they also have old grudges with Turkey, and if they successfully "enter the treaty", Turkey will be more "different" and even isolated. This is something that Turkey would never like to see.
There are at least four steps to joining NATO, and even without Turkey blocking it, it is unlikely that Sweden and Finland would join NATO at the end of June, just after filing in May. /Xinhua News Agency
Sweden, Finland, may freeze applications for "contracting" due to obstruction
Previously, The Economist said that Sweden and Finland can quickly join NATO through "special procedures". However, this "special program" does not exist.
There are at least four steps to join NATO: the intended acceding party submits a letter of intent to NATO - ratification - NATO drafts a protocol of accession, and it is signed by the representatives of the member states and the countries wishing to join - the domestic ratification of NATO countries.
Turkey is now blocking it in the third and fourth steps. And even if Turkey does not stop it, Sweden and Finland just applied in May, hoping to join NATO at the end of June.
From Turkey's point of view, showing a tough stance to the West is a diplomatic victory. With Turkey's inflation rate exceeding 70 percent, the victory was needed by Erdogan to help prevent further declines in its support.
But for Sweden and Finland, the difficulty of "joining the treaty" is a major failure. The defeat could also be linked to the current inflation rates in both countries and bring about political turmoil.
In May, Inflation rose to 7.2 percent, the highest level in Sweden since 1991. Inflation rose to 7 percent in Finland in May, its highest level since 1990.
One of the reasons for inflation in Finland is the rise in electricity prices. As a result of its involvement in sanctions against Russia, Finland announced that it would transmit electricity from Sweden in the future, and Russia suspended its electricity supply to Finland for this reason.
Against the backdrop of inflation and the difficulty of "signing the contract" quickly, the Governments of The Two Countries must now consider the issue of "stop loss".
On June 14, Finnish Prime Minister Malin said he risked a freeze if he failed to reach an agreement with Turkey before the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June.
The last country to successfully join NATO was North Macedonia, which took years to change the name of the country because Greece opposed its original "Macedonia" name. How much can The Two Countries Pay this time?
Written by / Xu Lifan (Columnist)
Editor / He Rui
Proofreading / Chen Diyan