The new conflict between China and the Philippines on June 17, 2024, has now come to an end, after which the Philippine government has basically conceded in.
【Sino-Philippine Disputes】
Among them, the Philippine government originally thought that many Western countries could back it up, but it did not expect that they would admit their cowardice one after another, including the US Navy, so as not to be involved in the Sino-Philippine dispute.
China has deployed four 0.55 million tons to drive to the South China Sea, one of which is a 105-ton ship, which was also witnessed by Philippine fishermen near Palawan Island.
A broken ship in a hurry to replenish
The reason why the Philippine side took the risk of sending speedboats to forcibly break through the blockade of the Chinese coast guard and also to transport supplies to Ren'ai Jiao is actually because under China's strict control for 30 days, the Philippine warships have been cut off from water and food.
【Renji Reef Wreck】
China has long informed the Philippines of the rules for the supply of Ren'ai Jiao, and the Philippines can send supplies, and the type, quantity, and transportation time of the materials must be reported to China in advance, and they must be subject to the Chinese side's temporary inspection.
As long as the Philippines acts according to the rules, China will not let the Filipino personnel on Ren'ai Jiao starve to death and die of thirst, but the Philippines has always been unwilling to do so, preferring to use airdrops by plane rather than cooperate with China.
The Philippines does not have the ability to accurately airdrop at a fixed point, and as a result, all the supplies scattered on the sea were seized by the Chinese coast guard first, and the shipwrecked personnel stationed on Ren'ai Jiao still failed to get supplies.
【Filipino Soldier on a Broken Ship】
Seeing that the soldiers on Ren'ai Jiao could no longer hold on, the Philippines dispatched speedboats to try to break through the blockade line of the Chinese coast guard, but the Philippines did not expect China's handling to be so tough and decisive.
In order to calm down the situation, Philippine officials even took the initiative to explain to China, saying that the incident was a misunderstanding.
The most interesting thing is that when the West began to hype up the outbreak of the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the Philippines actually took the lead in standing up and making a statement, saying that China had no intention of armed attack on Filipino personnel, and that China did not carry any lethal weapons, and that the Philippines did not report in advance that attracted the Chinese Coast Guard.
【Second Thomas Reef Conflict】
The Philippines is somewhat unexpected, and many Chinese people are waiting for the Philippines to escalate the situation and give China an excuse to forcefully resolve the South China Sea issue.
The Philippines' voluntary admission shows that the Marcos Jr. government is still sensible, after the Philippine military top brass claimed at a press conference on the Second Thomas Shoal clash that the Chinese coast guard was trying to induce the Philippines to fire the first shot.
【Marcos Jr.)
From this statement, we may know that China is actually willing to use force to completely resolve the South China Sea issue, or to use force to resolve the South China Sea issue as a potential option.
The Philippines finally realized that it was inappropriate to make a big deal out of the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Once a war breaks out in the South China Sea, the Philippines will undoubtedly become the biggest loser in the war, regardless of whether the United States intervenes as an ally of the Philippines or not.
The Philippines would rather maintain the status quo in the South China Sea that smells of gunpowder than simply detonate a powder keg.
【Philippine Coast Guard】
Three commitments from the Philippines
Also in order to ease the current situation in the South China Sea, the Philippines has also made three rare commitments to China on the Second Thomas Shoal issue:
First, the Philippines promised that if it wants to send supplies to Ren'ai Jiao in the future, it will report to the Chinese side in advance in accordance with the regulations to avoid similar miscalculations.
This is a very interesting situation, as the Philippines is clearly avoiding the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines from triggering the entry into force of the US-Philippines mutual defense agreement, and for the first time the Philippines has shown signs that it does not want a third party to intervene in the Sino-Philippine conflict.
Second, the Philippines has restricted the response level of the Philippine Coast Guard, prohibiting the Philippine Coast Guard from using water cannons and other equipment to attack Chinese vessels, and strictly prohibiting Philippine personnel from using thermal weapons under any circumstances, that is, not firing the first shot.
A spokesman for the Philippine Navy asked Philippine front-line personnel not to be provoked by China and escalate the level of maritime conflicts, to put it bluntly, the Philippines is afraid of a direct armed conflict with China.
【Confrontation between China and the Philippines】
Third, there has been a reversal of public opinion in the Philippines, Marcos Jr. has been preaching populist ideas in the country, and anti-China sentiment has formed in the Philippines.
It is the Philippines that is causing trouble, and it is also the Philippines that is now surrendering its guns and confessing to it, which is unacceptable to the Filipinos, and many Filipinos hope that the Philippine government will be tougher and directly respond to China's blockade.
【Confrontation between China and the Philippines】
But the Marcos Jr. administration is well aware that even if the United States does come to help the Philippines, the United States and the Philippines will still give China a head, and the United States does not have any military advantage over China in the South China Sea, and if it does, the United States will not take the initiative to withdraw in the 2016 confrontation in the South China Sea.
At that time, the United States had deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups, but now it has only a few destroyers, and it is impossible to confront China head-on.
China's current approach to the South China Sea is to cut sausages and gradually turn the repossession of territories illegally occupied by other countries, such as Ren'ai Jiao, into a fait accompli, rather than directly regaining control by military means.
【Confrontation between China and the Philippines】
After all, China's current focus is still on the great power game between China and the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region should avoid war before the collapse of US hegemony, so as to provide China with a stable surrounding environment, and as long as the Philippines does not continue to die, it does not have to worry about becoming a victim of great power confrontation.
Sources:
[1] The Philippines has been on Ren'ai Reef for 15 years. Beijing News Electronic News [Quote date: 2024-06-24]
[2] For the problem of Ren'ai Reef! The Ministry of National Defense and the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines speak out!