Meso-Economic Research Group
Zhang Jingjing S1090522050003 Chief Rodin Report Contact Report Release date: June 28, 2024
Text | China Merchants Macro Zhang Jingjing team
Key takeaways
Event: On June 27, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics released the performance data of industrial enterprises above designated size in May. In May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.9%; The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.4% (4.3% in April).
The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' profits in May fell from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of the month fell to 0.7% from 4.0% in April. However, the year-on-year growth rate of operating income has rebounded, mainly due to the increase in marginal contribution caused by the narrowing of the year-on-year growth rate of PPI; The growth rate of industrial added value has declined, which is more consistent with the information reflected in the manufacturing PMI in May.
Compared with April, the inventory turnover days of finished products decreased, the average payback period of accounts receivable rebounded slightly, and the operating income margin continued to improve. In terms of ownership types, compared with April, the profit growth rate of state-owned, private and joint-stock enterprises has improved, and the profit growth rate of foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan has declined.
Benefiting from the relatively large upward trend in the year-on-year growth rate of prices, the overall profit performance of the upstream mining and dressing industry has improved slightly, and the marginal decline in the growth rate of industrial added value in some important industries has limited the improvement of profits. The profit improvement of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing is the most obvious, followed by coal mining and washing and oil and gas extraction. The ferrous metal mining and dressing industry still maintained a high profit growth rate, which was basically the same as that of the previous month. The profit growth rate of non-metallic ore mining and dressing and petroleum coal processing has declined, of which the petroleum coal and fuel processing have fallen significantly, and the drag on the upstream profit growth rate has further increased.
In the past two months, the price increase of the midstream raw material industry is second only to the upstream extractive industry, and the industrial added value of many industries has also rebounded synchronously, and the overall profit growth rate has improved significantly for the second consecutive month. Among them, the profit growth rate of non-ferrous metal smelting rose sharply, which was the main contribution to the profit of midstream raw materials this month. The midstream equipment manufacturing industry is still the main support for the profits of industrial enterprises, and the overall profit growth rate has decreased from the previous month. The price level of the midstream equipment manufacturing industry has rebounded relatively little, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value has declined due to the marginal decline in the growth rate of export delivery value. In the subdivided industries, except for instrumentation, the profit growth rate of various industries has declined.
The profit growth rate of the downstream industry was basically the same as that of the previous month. Among the sub-industries, the profit performance of food-related downstream industries is better, of which agricultural and sideline food processing is the main contribution. The profit growth rate of consumer goods related industries fell as a whole, of which textiles, garments and apparel, leather and feather shoes, and furniture manufacturing fell significantly. The overall profit growth rate of other downstream industries has not changed much.
Conclusion: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises fell marginally, although there is a positive marginal contribution to the price recovery, but a large part of the year-on-year growth rate of PPI comes from the reduction of the tail drag effect, the real price is still at a low level, and the lack of effective demand and some overcapacity problems also suppress the income and profit growth of industrial enterprises. On the positive side, there is still room for the year-on-year decline in PPI to narrow, which may lead to further recovery of overall profit margins. In the next stage, we can focus on the profit improvement space brought by the rise in price level to some upstream and midstream raw material industries. During the year, the upward superposition of the global inventory cycle and the export rush will still make exports remain resilient, and the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, which is highly dependent on external demand, is also expected to be supported.
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Overall:
The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' profits in May fell from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of the month fell to 0.7% from 4.0% in April. However, the year-on-year growth rate of operating income has rebounded, mainly due to the increase in marginal contribution caused by the narrowing of the year-on-year growth rate of PPI; The growth rate of industrial added value has declined, which is more consistent with the information reflected in the manufacturing PMI in May.
Specifically:
Compared with April, the inventory turnover days of finished products decreased, the average payback period of accounts receivable increased slightly, and the operating income margin continued to improve.
According to the data, the inventory turnover days of finished products were 20.70 days (20.80 days in April), flat year-on-year (down 0.10 days month-on-month), the average recovery period of accounts receivable was 66.80 days (66.70 days in April), an increase of 3.20 days year-on-year (up 0.10 days month-on-month), and the operating income margin was 5.19% (5.00% in April), an increase of 0.00% year-on-year (up 0.19% month-on-month).
In terms of ownership types, compared with April, the profit growth rate of state-owned, private and joint-stock enterprises has improved, and the profit growth rate of foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan has declined.
Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth of profits of state-owned, private and joint-stock enterprises in May was -2.40% (-2.80% in April, -17.70% in the same period last year), 7.60% (6.40% in April, -21.30% in the same period last year) and 1.00% (0.90% in April, -20.40% in the same period last year). The profits of foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises invested in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 12.60% year-on-year (16.70% in April, -13.60% in the same period last year).
Benefiting from the sharp upward trend in the year-on-year growth rate of prices, the overall profit performance of the upstream mining and dressing industry improved slightly, and the marginal decline in the growth rate of industrial added value limited the improvement in profits. The profit improvement of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing is the most obvious, followed by coal mining and washing and oil and gas extraction. Ferrous metal mining and dressing still maintained a high profit growth rate, which was basically the same as that of the previous month. The profit growth rate of non-metallic mineral mining and dressing, petroleum coal and fuel processing has declined, of which the petroleum coal and fuel processing has fallen significantly, and the drag on the upstream profit growth rate has further increased.
According to the data, the cumulative profit growth rate of ferrous metal mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal mining and dressing, oil and gas mining, and coal mining and washing rebounded to varying degrees, including 64.5% (64.2% in April), 8.3% (1.6% in April), 5.3% (4.3% in April), and -31.8% (-34.2% in April) respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of the cumulative profit of non-metallic mineral mining and dressing fell to -5.6% (-4.6% in April). The cumulative profit of petroleum, coal and fuel processing fell sharply year-on-year to -177.7% (-130.2% in April).
In the past two months, the price increase of the midstream raw material industry is second only to the upstream extractive industry, and the industrial added value of many industries has also rebounded synchronously, and the overall profit growth rate has improved significantly for the second consecutive month. Among them, the profit growth rate of non-ferrous metal smelting rose sharply, which was the main contribution to the profit of midstream raw materials this month. The profit growth rate of comprehensive utilization of waste resources, metal products, and non-metallic mineral products has increased to varying degrees. The profit growth rate of chemical raw materials and products that performed well in April fell briefly, but it was still significantly better than the level in March.
According to the data, in the midstream raw material processing industry, the cumulative profit of non-ferrous metal smelting increased sharply year-on-year, recording 80.6% (56.6% in April). The cumulative profit growth rate of the comprehensive utilization of waste resources, metal products, non-metallic mineral products and other industries improved to varying degrees, recording 12.5% (-28.7% in April), 11.0% (4.60% in April) and -52.9% (-53.9% in April) respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of cumulative profits of chemical raw materials and products fell briefly, recording -2.7% (8.4% in April). The cumulative profit growth rate of chemical fiber manufacturing fell to 169.3% (181.3% in April), which is still at a high level.
The midstream equipment manufacturing industry is still the main support for the profits of industrial enterprises, and the overall profit growth rate has decreased from the previous month. The price level of the midstream equipment manufacturing industry rebounded relatively slightly, and at the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value declined due to the decline in the growth rate of export delivery value. In the subdivided industries, except for instrumentation, the profit growth rate of various industries has declined, but the growth rate of major profit-contributing industries such as computer communication electronic equipment, automobile manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding and aerospace still maintains a high level. The growth rate of instrumentation profits rose, but it was still in the negative growth range.
According to the data, in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, computer communication and electronic equipment, automobile manufacturing, railway, ship and aerospace are the main contributors to the profits of midstream equipment manufacturing, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56.8% (75.8% in April), 17.9% (29.0% in April) and 36.3% (40.7% in April) respectively. The profit growth rate of general equipment, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment declined, recording 1.8% (6.2% in April), -8.8% (-7.3% in April) and -6.0% (-4.7% in April) respectively. The growth rate of instrumentation profit rose, recording -1.8% (-3.6% in April).
The profit growth rate of the downstream industry was basically the same as that of the previous month. Among the sub-industries, the profit performance of food-related downstream industries is better, of which agricultural and sideline food processing is the main contribution. The profit growth rate of consumer goods related industries fell as a whole, of which textiles, garments and apparel, leather and feather shoes, and furniture manufacturing fell significantly. The overall profit growth rate of other downstream industries has not changed much.
According to the data, the cumulative profit growth rate of food-related downstream industries rose as a whole, and the profit growth rate of agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, wine and beverages and tea recorded 17.1% (9.0% in April), 12.4% (13.8% in April) and 8.9% (8.7% in April) respectively. In terms of consumer goods, the profit growth rate of the textile industry, textile, clothing and apparel, leather and feather shoes, furniture manufacturing, culture, education, art, sports and entertainment, printing and recording media declined to varying degrees, recording 23.2% (24.9% in April), 1.7% (7.4% in April), 6.8% (18.7% in April), 18.5% (32.3% in April), 31.8% (34.6% in April) and 23.1% (28.8% in April) respectively.
The overall profit growth rate of public utilities continued to decline slightly, of which the profit growth rate of electricity and heat production and supply and water production and supply industry declined significantly, and the profit growth rate of gas production and supply industry improved compared with the previous month. The cumulative profit growth rate of electricity and heat production and supply, gas production and supply, and water production and supply recorded 35.0% (44.1% in April), 1.2% (-2.0% in April) and 20.0% (26.0% in April) respectively.
Conclusion: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises fell marginally, although there is a positive marginal contribution to the price recovery, but a large part of the year-on-year growth rate of PPI comes from the reduction of the tail drag effect, the real price is still at a low level, and the lack of effective demand and some overcapacity problems also suppress the income and profit growth of industrial enterprises. On the positive side, there is still room for the year-on-year decline in PPI to narrow, which may lead to further recovery of overall profit margins. In the next stage, we can focus on the profit improvement space brought by the rise in price level to some upstream and midstream raw material industries. During the year, the upward superposition of the global inventory cycle and the export rush will still make exports remain resilient, and the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, which is highly dependent on external demand, is also expected to be supported.
Risk Warning:
The pace of year-on-year inventory recovery may be limited.
The above content comes from the report "Midstream Raw Material Profitability Continues to Improve - Profit Analysis of Industrial Enterprises in May 2024" on June 28, 2024.
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20231227 How to understand the economic imbalances within the eurozone? -- European Economic Structure Research Series 1
20231226 The end of the cold wave and the rebound of production: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 47, 2023)
20231225 Cold spell temporarily strengthens seasonality – Macro Week outlook (24 December 2023)
20231225 Domestic long-term and short-term interest rates are declining -- tracking of major asset allocation (December 18-December 22)
20231224 What changes have taken place in exports this year?
20231223 Will the BOJ exit YCC and negative interest rates in 2024?
20231221 Waiting for the issuance of additional treasury bonds to form expenditures - a review of November fiscal data
20231219 Weakening of High-Frequency Indicators - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 46, 2023)
20231219 Perspective of China Merchants Securities' Aggregate Volume - Conference Call Minutes (20231217)
20231218 Consensus and Divergence – Macro Weekly Perspectives (17 December 2023)
20231217 10年美债下行幅度较大 ——大类资产配置跟踪(12/11-12/15)
20231216 The annual economic growth rate is likely to exceed 5% - a review of the economic data in November
20231215 What do you think of the financial data for November?
20231215 pivot or continue to move downward - US November CPI review
20231214 Variables in U.S. Treasuries after the end of interest rate hikes – December FOMC commentary
20231213 Five points of understanding of the Central Economic Work Conference
20231212 Cement Production Falls Sharply – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 45, 2023)
20231211 Continuation of the "wave" recovery pattern – Macro Week outlook (10 December 2023)
20231211 Building stock continued to decline, and roads improved significantly - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in November from a satellite perspective
20231211 Gold Prices Turned Down: Tracking of Asset Allocation (December 4-December 8)
20231210 Reflation is still expected – November inflation review
20231209 What is the meaning of "first establish and then break"? -- Comments on the Politburo meeting
20231209 U.S. bonds may once again enter a wait-and-see period - analysis of U.S. employment data for November 2023
20231208 60 years of U.S. stocks and their political cycles
20231205 Steel Production Situation Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 44, 2023)
20231204 Still at the end of passive destocking – Macro Weekly Views (December 3, 2023)
20231203 Divergence of Risk Appetite in Global Markets: Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (November 27-December 1)
20231201 Adapting to the new characteristics of money and credit – the outlook for monetary liquidity in 2024
20231201 Winter and spring - November PMI review
20231130 Returning to potential growth – domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2024
20231128 The performance of high-frequency indicators continues to improve: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 43, 2023)
20231127 Stronger on the production side than on the demand side – Macro Weekly Outlook (26 Nov 2023)
20231126 Strong rebound of the RMB exchange rate - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (November 20-November 24)
20231123 Fiscal revenue and expenditure improved simultaneously - a review of fiscal data in October
20231122 High-frequency indicators stop falling and rebound - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 42, 2023)
20231120 A New Economic Platform, Breakthroughs Must Be Worked Hard: Macro Weekly Views (19 November 2023)
20231119 U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar fell sharply - tracking the allocation of major asset categories (Nov 13-Nov 17)
20231118 Key Consensus of the 2023 APEC Summit
20231117 Review: Asset performance after the Fed's rate hikes ended
20231116 Anchor of next year's economic growth - a review of economic data in October
20231115 Cooling down as scheduled - US CPI review for October
20231115 The Domestic Economy Enters the Off-Season: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 41, 2023)
20231114 What do you think of the financial data in October?
20231113 How do you see the internal and external marginal changes? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (November 12, 2023)
20231113 Crude oil prices have fallen significantly - tracking of major asset allocation (November 6-November 10)
20231112 Can undervalued U.S. consumption continue to exceed expectations? -- Also talking about the outlook for U.S. consumption in 2024
20231111 Slight decline in construction - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in October from a satellite perspective
20231110 When will it pick up again? -- October inflation commentary
20231109 Causes of asset price differentiation and conditions for convergence
20231108 Why does export growth remain low? ——Comments on import and export data in October 2023
20231107 Short-term data fluctuations are not the main contradiction of the current A-share trend: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 40, 2023)
20231105 How do you see the global manufacturing PMI cooling down in October? ——Macro Week Outlook (November 5, 2023)
20231105 Insight Cycle: Where is the U.S.-China Inventory Cycle?
20231105 Global Major Equity Markets Rebound Significantly - Tracking of Asset Allocation (October 30-November 3)
20231104 Employment data turned worse as expected – analysis of US employment data for October
20231104 What do you think of the BOJ's fine-tuning of YCC? -- Comments on the Bank of Japan's October monetary policy decision
20231031 Several sets of high-frequency data worth paying attention to: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 39, 2023)
20231031 "Tight balance" of funds - October liquidity monthly report
20231030 Can Proactive Fiscal Boost Sentiment Further? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (October 29, 2023)
20231029 Overseas layout of domestic enterprises: region, field, growth rate
20231029 Domestic Equity Market Performs Well - Tracking of Asset Allocation (October 23-October 27)
20231028 The signal of the shift to active replenishment is becoming more obvious - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises in September 2023
20231027 Why did U.S. stocks fall after the Q3 data release? -- Commentary on US GDP data for the third quarter of 2023
20231027 Fiscal enthusiasm continues to improve - comments on September fiscal data
20231026 Fundamentals Continue to Improve - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 38, 2023)
20231025 Two key changes regarding the issuance of additional treasury bonds
20231024 This round of interest rate hikes is not the same as an analysis of U.S. fiscal stress
20231023 Changes in the tone of domestic and foreign policies are key – Macro Week Perspectives (22 October 2023)
20231022 Global Major Equity Markets Fall - Asset Allocation Tracking (Oct. 16-Oct. 20)
20231019 What are the main outcomes of the Belt and Road Summit?
20231018 Where can the inner life of the larger-than-expected recovery be? -- Comments on economic data for the third quarter
20231017 Rapid Rebound in Production: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 37, 2023)
20231016 U.S. 10 bond yields fall from high levels - tracking asset allocation in major categories (October 9-October 13)
20231016 There is still room for the economy to recover – Macro Week Outlook (15 October 2023)
20231015 Government bonds support social finance - a review of financial data in September
20231014 Focus on the structural characteristics of reflation – September inflation review
20231014 Highlights and outlook of export structure - comments on import and export data in September
20231013 Construction is basically stable: the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in September from a satellite perspective
20231013 Inflation can't eliminate FED policy divergence – US CPI commentary for September
20231012 How competitive are China's major export chains? ——Export Topic (4)
20231011 Fluctuations in high-frequency production data due to long holidays - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 36, 2023)
20231010 Improving Domestic Demand – Macro Weekly Outlook (8 October 2023)
20231008 Which stage of the overseas market is most like this holiday?
20231007 Continued stress test overseas - analysis of US employment data for September
20231006 Spatial estimation of consumption recovery
20231005 Increasing Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination - September Liquidity Monthly Report
20231004 Assess the default risk of U.S. corporate bonds in 7 dimensions
20231003 What is the competitiveness of the five major industrial chains such as automobiles and machinery? -- Dismantling of key export industry chains
20231001 Towards the full-year economic target – September macroeconomic forecast
20230930 After breaking through the boom and bust line, how will the manufacturing PMI go? - September PMI review
20230927 Profit growth in the current month has turned significantly positive - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in August 2023
20230926 Domestic Economic Activity Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 35, 2023)
20230925 Increasing Positives – Macro Weekly Outlook (24 September 2023)
20230924 Mainland equity market performed well – tracking asset allocation in major categories (18 Sep-22 Sep)
20230923 What is the relationship between long-term bond interest rates and government leverage? - Emerging Countries
20230921 A soft landing is not the primary goal – comments from the September Fed meeting
20230920 Logistics Data Continues to Pick Up: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 34, 2023)
20230919 Two factors and four quadrants, the performance and outlook of various types of assets
20230918 Increasing certainty of economic recovery – Macro Week outlook (17 September 2023)
20230917 Revenues slow, spending is strong – August fiscal data commentary
20230917 RMB exchange rate rebounds and rebounds - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (September 11-September 15)
20230916 As the economy picks up, what is the progress of the annual target? -- Comments on economic data in August
20230915 Escort capital - MLF operation comments and RRR cuts in September
20230914 Wait patiently for employment to beat inflation - US CPI review for August
20230913 The effect of the policy has been shown in the second-hand housing listing index in first-tier cities: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 33, 2023)
20230912 August financial data review
20230912 Construction continues to pick up - marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in August from a satellite perspective
20230911 Industrial Policy Relay Aggregate Policy – Macro Weekly Views (10 September 2023)
20230911 The sustainability of consumption recovery and the signal of the bottom of investment and exports---the macroeconomic situation during the year
20230910 Crude oil prices have risen significantly - tracking of major asset allocation (September 4-September 8)
20230910 Inflation picked up as expected, and the dynamic structure is the key - August inflation review
20230908 What High-Frequency Indicators Should Be Paid Attention to at Present: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 32, 2023)
20230906 What is the relationship between long-term bond interest rates and government leverage? - Developed countries
20230905 Return to Accommodative - Analysis of the Central Bank's Financial Statements
20230904 Gaining momentum – Macro Weekly Outlook (3 September 2023)
20230904 Global Major Equity Markets Generally Rise - Asset Allocation Tracking (August 28 - September 1)
20230902 We are standing on the left side of the inflection point of the Fed's first-order policy guidance - analysis of US employment data for August 2023 20230901 Positive factors are accumulating - August macroeconomic forecast report 20230831 September manufacturing PMI is expected to return to the boom and bust line - August PMI review
20230830 Bank of Japan's Policy Shift: Black Swan Turns Grey Rhino – Overseas Liquidity Series (1)
20230829 When will the fragile balance between supply and demand be broken: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 31, 2023)
20230828 Three Steps to Turn: Stabilization, Revitalization, and Boost – Macro Weekly Views (August 27, 2023) 20230828 The decline in the cumulative growth rate of profits continues to narrow - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in July 2023
20230827 Gold prices have risen sharply - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (August 21 - August 25)
20230827 No need to subscribe for a mortgage: what is the macro impact?
20230826 Jackson Hole: What is the signal from the global central bank meeting?
20230825 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (III) – Industrial Transfer and Long-term Exports from the Perspective of Global Value Chains
20230824 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (II) - Competitiveness and Product Dependence on Export Changes
20230823 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (1) - Which Commodity Export Growth Rates Are Expected to Pick Up in the Second Half of the Year?
20230822 Improving Production and Weakening Prices: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 30, 2023)
20230821 The Turn is in Progress – Macro Week Outlook (August 20, 2023)
20230820 Global Capex Upward Cycle under Value Chain Reshaping - Global Value Chain Reshaping Series (1)
20230820 Risk Aversion in the Equity Market Heats Up -- Asset Allocation Tracking (August 14 - August 18)
20230818 Tone Loosening - Interpretation of the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter
20230817 Industrial Transfer and Long-term Exports from the Perspective of Global Value Chains: Export Topics (3)
20230816 Asymmetric interest rate cut with loose price and tight volume - August MLF operation review
20230816 Aggregate Characteristics, Quantitative Estimates and Structural Highlights – A Review of Economic Data for July
20230814 Short-term disruptions need to wait for policy breakthroughs – Macro Week Perspectives (13 August 2023)
20230813 Where is the inventory cycle in various industries? - The second in the series of inflection points of the cycle
20230813 Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (Aug 7 - Aug 11)
20230812 Deposits and loans fell simultaneously - a review of financial data in July
20230812 Construction Increases and Stops Falling: Marginal Changes in Infrastructure Real Estate in July from a Satellite Perspective
20230811 Core CPI may fall rapidly - US July CPI review
20230810 Did the overseas risk domino start?
20230810 Core Inflation Starts to Improve MoM – July Inflation Review
20230809 Seeing Through the Inventory Cycle: Underlying Logic, Path Forecasting, and Asset Mapping – Part of a series on "Inflection Points in the Cycle."
20230809 The low point of export growth in the current month of this year has reached - a review of import and export data in July 2023
20230808 Pay attention to the export situation after the export container freight index stabilizes: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 28, 2023)
20230808 Changes in Exports from the Perspective of Competitiveness and Product Dependence: Special Topic on Exports (II)
20230807 Mysterious Currency Swap - Lifting the "Veil" of Exchange Rates Part III
20230807 Slow is Fast – Macro Weekly Perspectives (6 August 2023)
20230806 Which commodity export growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year? ——Export Topic (1)
20230806 Treasury yields continue to rise - tracking asset allocation in broad categories (July 31 - August 4)
20230805 Which countries have increased their country risk this year?
20230805 The unemployment rate is the core contradiction - analysis of US employment data for July 2023
20230804 South Korea's Industrial Upgrading Path: From Export-Oriented to Technologically and Cultural Power
20230803 What is the impact of the downgrade of the US rating?
20230802 The year-on-year bottom of a number of indicators appeared - the July macroeconomic forecast report
20230801 What high-frequency indicators can we pay attention to after the Politburo meeting in July - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 27, 2023)
20230801 Conditions for the manufacturing PMI to return to the boom and bust line - July PMI review
20230731 Risk appetite and fixed investment growth will pick up in tandem – Macro Weekly Outlook (30 July 2023)
20230730 What kind of harvest will be in the autumn - the context of asset allocation in large categories (Q3 2023)
20230730 Hong Kong stocks and A-shares both rose significantly - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (July 24-July 28)
20230729 Why is the U.S. economy less sensitive to FED rate hikes?
20230729 U.S. Q2 Economy in the Rising Capital Expenditure Cycle - A Review of U.S. GDP Data for the Second Quarter of 2023
20230728 August reversal - analysis of the central bank's financial statements in June
20230728 Profit growth continues to climb - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in June
20230727 Asset pricing logic begins to change - comments on the July Fed interest rate meeting
20230726 Evidence of Improvement of Economic Endogenous Momentum in High-Frequency Data: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 26, 2023)
20230725 What information "exceeds expectations"? -- Comments on the Politburo meeting
20230724 What kind of policies is the market waiting for? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (July 23, 2023)
20230723 Domestic Bond Market Strengthens – Broad Asset Allocation Tracker (July 17 - July 21)
20230721 U.S. Stocks from the Perspective of the Inventory Cycle of Various U.S. Industries - Overseas Inventory Cycle Series (2)
20230720 Where is the inventory cycle in various industries in the United States? ——Overseas Inventory Cycle Series (1)
20230719 Poor Expectation of Consumption Demand in Household Income and Expenditure Data: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 25, 2023)
20230719 Perspective of the total volume of China Merchants Securities-Conference Call (20230716)
20230718 There is still work to be done in the second half of the year - Q2 economic data review
20230717 Which structures have internal and external resonance opportunities? ——Macro Week Outlook (July 16, 2023)
20230717 The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has rebounded sharply - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (July 10-July 14)
20230716 After falling below 100, how does the dollar go?
20230715 The bottom of export growth will be present - a review of import and export data in June 2023
20230715 Three highlights of the central bank's press conference
20230714 Open the Expectations Management Toolbox – Lifting the "Veil" of Exchange Rates Part 2
20230713 In the second half of the year, the core is down, and the non-core rebounds - US June CPI review
20230713 The imbalance between supply and demand of second-hand housing intensified last week: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 24, 2023)
20230712 The growth rate of social finance may start a low-slope rebound - a review of financial data in June
20230711 What it means for inflation to bottom out – June inflation commentary
20230710 Why are products the most sensitive? – Macro Week Outlook (July 9, 2023)
20230709 Revisiting the structural changes in the United States: employment, economic dislocation, and lifestyle habits
20230709 Global Major Equity Market Downturn - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (July 3-July 7)
20230708 Equilibrium sets the stage for weaker employment – analysis of US employment data for June
20230706 Japan's "lost 30 years" stock and bond exchange exchange was fully restored
20230705 What are the highlights of Japan's "lost 20 years" economy?
20230704 Domestic Supply and Demand Are Establishing a New Equilibrium: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 23, 2023)
20230703 Q3 economy is likely to improve month-on-month – Macro Weekly Views (July 2, 2023)
20230703 Sentiment in the Domestic Bond Market Warms from Caution - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (June 26-June 30)
20230702 Why are we not pessimistic about the RMB exchange rate?
20230701 Warm Breeze - Macroeconomic Forecast Report for June
20230630 Trade-offs – June PMI review
20230629 Why is Japan deflationary for so long?
20230628 Profits Climb Slowly - Analysis of Industrial Enterprises' Profits in May
20230627 Drawdown after interest rate cuts: An analysis of the central bank's financial statements in May
20230626 What factors will upset the temporary equilibrium? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (June 25, 2023)
20230626 Global Major Equity Markets Fall - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (June 19-June 23)
20230625 What are the overseas concerns during the Dragon Boat Festival?
20230624 Recapturing the "Lost 30 Years": Characteristics and Challenges of the Japanese Economy
20230623 Picture of the Day: June Collection
20230622 Picture of the Day: May Collection
20230621 Unconventional but not expected 10BP - June 2023 LPR quotation review
20230620 The stage of rapid month-on-month decline in China may be over: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 22, 2023)
20230619 When Value for Money Is High Enough – Macro Weekly Outlook (June 18, 2023)
20230619 Bond Market Deduction of Bullish Exhaustion Market - Tracking of Major Asset Allocation (June 12-June 16)
20230618 The Dawn of Light – The Context of Asset Allocation (June 2023)
20230617 High-frequency Price Indicators Show Signs of Stopping Falling and Stabilizing - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 21, 2023)
20230616 U.S. CPI slows at an accelerated pace, as expected – US May CPI commentary
20230616 Macro logic has entered a critical stage - a review of economic data in May
20230615 After the real interest rate turned positive, it was a retreat - a comment on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June
20230614 "Weak Social Finance" Breaks the Gap Period of Monetary Policy - A Review of Financial Data in May
20230613 Value of Waiting – A Preview of MLF Operations in June
20230612 Divergence data no longer hits the market – Macro Weekly Outlook (11 June 2023)
20230611 Bond Market Strengthened, Equity Closed Slightly Higher--Tracking of Major Asset Allocation (June 5-June 9)
20230611 Suppose the export recovery coincides with the FED rate cut in H2
20230610 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in May from a satellite perspective
20230609 Inflation Month-on-Month Significance Rises – May Inflation Commentary
20230608 Where does the exit go after changing gears as scheduled? ——Comments on import and export data in May 2023
20230607 Another Scenario of the Economy in the Second Half of the Year – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 20, 2023)
20230605 Positives start to emerge – Macro Weekly Outlook (June 4, 2023)
20230604 Crude oil, the inventory cycle and the delicate state of the dollar
20230604 Market Risk Appetite Has Rebounded - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (May 29-June 2)
20230603 Space for fiscal policy
20230603 Is the non-farm payrolls the end of the crossbow? -- Analysis of U.S. employment data in May
20230602 Plans for action – 2023 Medium-term Monetary Liquidity Outlook
20230601 Waiting for the dawn – 2023 mid-term domestic macroeconomic outlook
20230601 Data slides to the lower line of the target - PMI review for May
20230531 The Impact of Falling Price Levels – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 19, 2023)
20230530 Is the U.S. Debt Ceiling Risk Lifted?
20230529 Policy focus may shift – Macro Weekly Outlook (28 May 2023)
20230528 A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fell sharply - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (May 22-May 26)
20230527 Profit growth rate of midstream equipment manufacturing industry has rebounded significantly - profit analysis of industrial enterprises in April 2023
20230525 Can the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turn positive this year?
20230524 Production Situation Continues to Weaken - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 18, 2023)
20230523 Cost of debt is an obstacle to the LPR cut - LPR quotation review in May
20230522 could it be worse? ——Macro Week Outlook (May 21, 2023)
20230521 The US dollar rebounded, and gold fell sharply - tracking the allocation of large asset classes (May 15-May 19)
20230520 Five main outcomes of the Central Asia Summit: Comments on the Central Asia Summit
20230519 Is there continued depreciation pressure on the RMB?
20230519 Accelerating the pace of fiscal revenue and expenditure - comments on fiscal data for April 2023
20230518 Is there really moisture in the export data?
20230517 Investment Demand May Still Be Declining – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 17, 2023)
20230517 Where is the road to recovery – a review of economic data for April
20230515 Which is more important, "weak" or "recovery"? Macro Week Outlook (May 14, 2023)
20230514 Global Major Equity Markets Underperform – Asset Allocation Tracking (May 8-May 12)
20230513 It's time to talk about inventory cycles again
20230512 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in April from a satellite perspective
20230512 Behind the contraction of residents' deposits and loans - comments on financial data in April
20230511 Triple Cycle Suppression, When Will Inflation Stabilize – April Inflation Review
20230511 U.S. inflation ushered in a key sub-item inflection point - U.S. CPI review for April
20230510 Should the growth rate of exports be shifted? ——Comments on import and export data in April
20230509 How Does a Split in the Two Chambers Affect the U.S. Debt Ceiling?
20230508 Where did the day-to-day credit go
20230507 Strengthening the Economic Bottom – Macro Weekly Perspectives (7 May 2023)
20230506 Employment resilience will trigger fluctuations in FED policy expectations – analysis of US employment data for April 2023
20230505 What is the anchor for switching between "counter-cyclical" and "trans-cyclical"? - "Employment-inflation" policy framework
20230504 How far is it from cutting interest rates? -- Fed's May FOMC commentary
20230503 The strong recovery of the service sector will not be short-lived – China's economy under the microscope (Issue 16, 2023)
20230502 Will the central bank be the next black swan?
20230501 Bond Market Strengthens Significantly: Tracking Asset Allocation in Major Categories (April 24-April 28)
20230430 Three logics are further strengthened - April PMI review
20230429 Hot and Cold Inequities – Macroeconomic Forecasts (April 2023)
20230428 Fed rate hike: the beginning of the end - US Q1 GDP review
20230428 Improving quality, stabilizing quantity, and preventing risks -- the three main points of the Politburo meeting
20230427 How the divergence between reality and expectation converges - the context of asset allocation
20230427 Profits of industrial enterprises began to climb - analysis of profits of industrial enterprises in March
20230426 Three questions about the risks of commercial real estate in the United States
20230425 Highlights of the April Politburo Meeting: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 15, 2023)
20230424 How do you see the changes in the logic of economic operation and policy thinking? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (April 23, 2023)
20230424 Risk Aversion Drives Equity Market Correction - Tracking of Asset Allocation (April 17-April 21)
20230423 Why is the RMB exchange rate "not moving"?
20230421 Highlights from the Q1 financial data conference
20230420 along three trails – economic highlights during the recovery shift period
20230419 Front-loaded efforts to stabilize revenue and increase expenditure--Comments on fiscal data in March 2023
20230419 Service Consumption and Exports May Be the Decisive Factors for Economic Success in the Second Quarter: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 14, 2023)
20230418 Strong Reality Under Weak Expectations - A Review of Economic Data in the First Quarter
20230417 Two indicators confirm the 'position' of the economy – Macro Weekly Outlook (16 April 2023)
20230416 When the interest rate cut game is in progress - comments on the 2023Q1 monetary policy meeting
20230416 Bond Market Reacts to Economic Fundamentals in a Dull Manner: Tracking Asset Allocation in Major Categories (April 10-April 14)
20230414 Necessarily more than accidental - comments on import and export data for March 2023
20230413 Which assets are not yet Price-in, and the prospect of an accelerated pullback in US inflation? -- March US CPI review
20230412 Start or end? -- Comments on financial data in March
20230412 Why Recovery and "Deflation" Coexist – March Inflation Review
20230411 The Policy Environment Will Continue to Optimize in the Critical Period of Stabilizing Employment - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 13, 2023)
20230410 is expected to be repaired; Momentum of RMB Accumulation Appreciation – Macro Weekly Outlook (9 April 2023)
20230410 Domestic Equity Market Continues to Rise - Tracking of Asset Allocation (April 3-April 7)
20230409 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in March from a satellite perspective
20230408 U.S. employment supply-demand gap accelerates repair – analysis of U.S. employment data for March
20230407 What are the differences in the choice and performance of overseas layout in different industries?
20230406 Standing at the starting point of RMB internationalization: Discuss the changes in the research paradigm of macro and large asset classes
20230405 FED faced with a dilemma? Probably, the problem is not complicated
20230404 Improving Supply and Shifting Demand: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 12, 2023)
20230404 Minutes of the April 2, 2023 "Perspectives on the Total" conference call
20230403 Rising Expectations – Macro Weekly Outlook (2 April 2023)
20230402 Data variance convergence; Social Finance Continues to Improve – Macroeconomic Forecast for March
20230402 The recovery of risk appetite drives the upward movement of the equity market - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (March 27-March 31)
20230401 Recovery is about to enter a shift period – March PMI review
20230331 Little Lotus showed its sharp corners, and expectations began to change
20230330 How can central bank structural tools help consumption?
20230329 Policy Support is Still Needed for Continued Demand Recovery: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 11, 2023)
20230328 The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises bottomed out - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises from January to February 2023
20230327 Phased Expectation Bottom – Macro Weekly Outlook (March 26, 2023)
20230326 From the four financial accounts, we will focus on fiscal development in 2023
20230326 The domestic equity market has performed better than the bond market - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (March 20-March 24)
20230325 Positive signal released by the implementation of the infrastructure REITs policy
20230324 Ready to go: the context of asset allocation
20230323 "Expected Trap" and "Kick in the Door" – March FOMC Commentary
20230322 Reversion of the Month-on-Month Repair Speed to the Mean: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 10, 2023)
20230321 How to understand the logic and impact of overseas risk transmission?
20230320