I wrote about this topic a long time ago, and now I write about it because I have new insights.
Maybe many people will shout, there is no bull market, this market is a fraud scene or something.
Venting emotions on the web is worthless and meaningless.
As for the bull market, when it should come, it will naturally come, because bulls and bears are reincarnated.
It's like if it falls too much, it will definitely rise, and if it rises too much, it will naturally fall, which is a truth.
When the valuation is cheap, the basis for the bull market is there, and when it rises to the point that there are bubbles everywhere, the bear market begins.
The last round of bull market, that is, in 2019-2021, this phenomenon was particularly obvious.
From more than ten times Moutai, which is undervalued, to more than seventy times Moutai, a serious bubble, which heralds the end of a bull market cycle.
The last round of bull market was in 2015, and the speculation was on the GEM, and the price-earnings ratio of the entire sector reached more than 100 times.
The reincarnation of the market itself is like this, no one wants it when it falls to a particularly cheap price, and someone chases it when it rises to the ceiling.
You think there is no bull market because it hasn't fallen through yet, that's all.
In 2005, 2008, 2013, 2018, including 2024, everyone's experience and feelings are exactly the same.
It's that the bear market never seems to end, and the bull market never comes.
If the cycle of holding shares is longer, it is to take the elevator, which is to lose money and cut the flesh and leave.
If you want to make money in stocks, you can only speculate in the short term and find hot spots.
In a bear market, what you have to do is to save your life, and this bear market thinking and trading pattern is completely correct.
But what about when the bull market comes?
You still continue to do short-term, catch hot spots, enter today, and exit tomorrow.
If the bull and bear markets are all the same set of trading strategies, both chasing up and down, then 2500 points and 3500 points are worthless to you, because they are all the same.
If you can make money all the time in this situation, you can only say that you are a trading genius.
Because it has surpassed the vast majority of programmatic transactions, it can make money in the capital market of complex human nature.
There are very few people who can do this, almost none.
There are some retail investors, perhaps at some stage, who have implemented this method of trading to make money.
But as the amount of capital increases, the market changes, and the strategy becomes ineffective.
When you have a large amount of money, buying a stock will slowly affect the direction of the stock and become the main prey.
Or, there will be fewer and fewer investment targets you can choose from, and it will be more and more difficult to trade.
This essence is because the trading strategies of bull and bear markets are different and should not be the same.
One is the market of stock game, and the other is the market of incremental entry.
Therefore, in terms of thinking and strategy, it is necessary to distinguish between bear markets and bull markets.
In a bull market, you can't actually make any money, because the bull market is also slaughtering investors who chase up and down.
Since there are different strategies at different stages, what kind of strategies should be adopted in the current market?
In fact, it is not difficult to see that the market is currently at the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull.
If we have to talk about bulls and bears, it is at the end of the bear market, and it has not really entered the bull market stage.
A lot of people don't understand what the end of a bear market looks like.
First understand the characteristics of the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull, and then think about what to do at this stage.
1. At the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull, it is often the shock of the rise and fall alternately.
Another characteristic of the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull is that it makes you feel as if the bear market has not gone yet, as if the bull market is coming again.
This stage can be said to be iterative, and there are several stages of going back and forth.
Most of the bottoms tend to have a second pedal, washing back and forth in a certain range.
It's like January-February, many people think it's a bear market, March-May thinks it's a bull market, and June thinks it's still a bear market.
These are all normal phenomena, and every previous stage bottom is almost the same.
And only the shock will loosen the chips at the bottom, and in the alternation of bulls and bears again and again, some people's faith will collapse, and finally obediently hand over the chips.
2. At the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull, it is often a contraction and consolidation of contradictions and differentiation.
The contradiction and differentiation mainly stem from the shrinkage of the bear.
At the end of the bear market, there is not much of a game, and shrinkage is the main theme.
The reason for the drawdown is that the bulls have locked in their chips, and the bears have nothing to vent about.
It seems that the index is still falling, but in fact, there are fewer and fewer floating chips.
In fact, there is no such thing as accurate bottom copying, but more in the bottom range, repeatedly absorbing chips.
This stage is very slow, and the bottom range should have at least half a year or more.
There is no such thing as a true V-shaped bottom, and even if it is an arc-shaped bottom, most of them rise slowly, and few of them quickly break away from the bottom.
3. At the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull, it is often a desperate situation when blue chips stabilize and junk stocks fall.
At the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull, there is no increment.
The real incremental funds are entered in the bull market, not at the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull.
The only ones who can really buy the bottom are the mysterious funds, because the chips should be given to them, not to those private bottom-buying teams.
And mystery money will only buy the bottom of blue chip stocks, not small-cap stocks, not junk stocks.
The fragmentation of the market lies in the fact that the index seems to be unable to fall, but individual stocks are still falling, and the fall is heartbreaking.
This is the standard bear-to-bull situation.
The bearish part is that small-cap stocks are still looking for a bottom, and the bullish place is that the big blue chips have completed bottoming.
Looking at the current market with bull market thinking, the things to do are relatively simple, try to get cheap chips.
How did cheap chips come about, is waiting for it.
Therefore, the strategy of the moment is actually to wait.
To be more concrete, it is to chase the fall and kill the rise, and specifically pick the blue chip stocks to chase the fall and kill the rise.
Compared with some people, they are still looking for hot spots and short-term opportunities over there.
They're looking for small opportunities, you're looking for big opportunities.
Short-term opportunities exist in rotation, they will change, and they need to do their homework every day and watch the market every day, but the bear's bottom should actually be to pick up chips and then lie down to win.
One is an opportunity that can be seized at any time.
The other is a once-in-a-few opportunity.
It's just that there are rules and tricks for taking cheap chips.
In terms of stock selection, it is necessary to choose blue chips with stable long-term performance, and when buying, you must build a position in batches, or even on the right side.
Don't easily buy the bottom, and don't judge the bottom easily, in a bear market often make mistakes.
If the first bottom is not caught, you can wait patiently for the second bottom to appear and make a choice to buy the second one.
The most important thing in bull market thinking is not how low you can buy, but whether you can hold it for a long time.
That is, whether you can catch really good stocks, good prices, and good opportunities in the bottom position at the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull.