#你家谁辅导孩子#
First, since interest income from cash is not included in EBITDA, if it is not deducted, it will inflate the enterprise value and, in turn, EV/EBITDA, and the results may be distorted
Second, for enterprises with cross-shareholdings, the amount of shareholdings, the corresponding income and equity value, may result in an asymmetry between the income statement and the balance sheet, and the result is easy to be distorted
For example, if the company is a minority shareholding with less than 50% and does not cause a merger, the company's EBITDA will not include the EBITDA corresponding to the minority shareholding, resulting in an overvaluation
Okay, after the theoretical part is analyzed, let's use Conch Cement as an example to valuation, select comparable companies, and calculate EV/EBITDA.
Here, we select China Resources Cement, China National Building Materials, and A-share Huaxin Cement and Jidong Cement as the comparison companies, and select the EV/EBITDA values in the past 10 years from the beginning of 2009 to the present, and select the quartile and 3/4 quantile of their historical interval as their historical EBITDA intervals, the details are as follows:
China Resources Cement (Hong Kong stocks) - historical EV/EBITDA between 7.5-11.5;
China National Building Materials (Hong Kong stocks) - historical EV/EBITDA between 6.7-9.5;
Huaxin Cement (A-shares) - Historical EV/EBITDA between 5.6-8.7, Jidong Cement (A-shares) - Historical EV/EBITDA between 9.4-12.8;
Among them, Jidong Cement and China Resources Cement Holdings belong to the left bias function, so the interval is adjusted, and the sum of the median and the left deviation value is selected as the maximum value
In addition, Conch Cement's historical EV/EBITDA range is between 5.2X-24X, but in the past 6 years, EV/EBITDA as a whole has fallen to a 1-fold peak between 5.2X-10.4X, and recently, EV/EBITDA has been between 6X-8X
Based on the above results, based on Bryant's and its own historical data, a reasonable EV/EBITDA is taken in the range of 6x to 10x.
If we combine the discounted data of DCF (the corresponding EV/EBITDA is about 5.83X to 8.13X), the overall combined EV/EBITDA is about 6X to 10X
This means that if the EV/EBITDA is below 6x, the margin of safety is higher, and if it is above 10x, the margin of safety is lower.
So far, the market capitalization of the A-share market in this case is 169 billion yuan, the market capitalization of the Hong Kong stock market is 192.6 billion Hong Kong dollars (171.4 billion yuan), and its EV/EBITDA is currently 6X
The data is calculated here, and you can understand the reason why it can resist the decline so much, because from the perspective of industrial analysis, there is connotative value to support.
At this point, it seems that everything has come to an end, but in the end, there are two questions that make everyone think:
1. When calculating the proportion of working capital, it is found that the proportion of working capital is mostly negative, but recently its working capital has gradually rebounded, from -15% to 3%, why is this?
First of all, the increase in its working capital was mainly due to the increase in current assets, mainly accounts receivable and bills, which in turn increased the proportion of working capital.
The increase in receivables is to relax the credit period and seize market share?
In the cement industry, there is a sales radius and geographical barriers, Conch Cement has been established for more than 20 years, and its market position has been very solid, so there is no need for such a big deal for the time being
In addition, in 2015, although the cement industry entered a new round of structural adjustment, the market structure was basically stable, the price rebounded, and the overall market was not suitable for expanding market share
In 2017, the notes receivable were 11 billion yuan and the accounts receivable was 1 billion yuan, and the increase in bills may be similar to Wanhua Chemical, but the change in the material settlement method.
2. Looking at its historical valuation, PB obviously has a "downshift effect" - the stock price has risen all the way, but PB has dropped from 2-4 times to 1-2 times, why is it in such a state?
The price-to-book ratio (PB) is mainly affected by the stock price and net assets, and since 2012, its stock price has risen all the way, and the main influencing factor is the net assets
Analyzing the changes in its historical net assets, the amount of its undistributed profits has increased year by year, and its absolute value as a percentage of its net assets has also increased year by year, from 31% to 61%.
The increase in undistributed profit was mainly due to Conch Cement's upgrading of technology, enhancing its cost competitive advantage, and gradually expanding its market share and operation scale, resulting in an increase in its net profit year by year, and a gradual increase in undistributed profit
Here, coincidentally, the previous Wanhua Chemical also had a similar "downshift effect", and our internal discussion believes that such an effect may be due to one thing
Assets are getting heavier and heavier, and when they reach a certain percentage, the overall valuation range will be lowered by a step.
As a result, both giants are in a state of "stronger fundamentals and lower valuation ranges".
As for how much the proportion of assets will change, and how much adjustment will be driven by valuation, this will be the problem that our future research reports will solve. Here are the questions and the reasons behind them for everyone to think about
3. In this case, similar to Hikvision and Kweichow Moutai, there is a lot of cash, but there is little financial management, why?
In 2017, its monetary funds were 24.7 billion yuan, but its wealth management products were only 2 billion yuan. It has a lot of cash, but it doesn't have any major projects under construction at the moment.
According to our speculation and the analysis of Haikang by Youjuku users, it is likely that it is limited by its shareholder structure.
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market