#宝藏兴趣攻略#
According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the cost of equity and the cost of debt are calculated.
Cost of equity - risk-free yield Rf, take the yield of five-year treasury bonds 3.18%; The β coefficient is taken as the industry average of 1.12, and the average return on capital is Rm, and the five-year average return of the Shanghai Composite Index is taken as 9.96%.
Therefore, the cost of equity is 10.77%
After-tax debt cost - the short-term and long-term interest rates of banks are 4.5% and 4.75% respectively, and the income tax rate is 23% based on the average effective tax rate of the past three years, and the cost of debt is 7.1%.
In addition, the equity ratio is 84.27% and the debt ratio is 11.23%, so the WACC can be approximated to 10.63%
In summary, the value of free cash flow for each period can be calculated, as follows
According to the above parameters and the DCF estimation model, the enterprise value is calculated to be between 160.5 billion yuan and 215.3 billion yuan
Its net debt is about 13.978 billion yuan, so the equity value is about 146.6 billion yuan to 201.3 billion yuan.
So, the corresponding static PE for 2017 is about 8.9X to 12.3X, and the corresponding EV/EBITDA is between 5.83X and 8.13X.
However, given that Conch Cement has invested a lot upfront and has not expanded in recent years, we can use EV/EBITDA to make a relative valuation for cross-validation.
Since the cement industry is an asset-heavy industry, and the proportion of fixed assets in total assets is between 50% and 60%, its depreciation has a greater impact on its profits
With this in mind, we use EV/EBITDA to value these asset-heavy and depreciating business models, excluding the impact of depreciation.
The so-called EV/EBITDA multiplier is the relationship between a company's total market capitalization after cash deductions and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
It is mainly suitable for industries with large upfront investment and need to amortize the upfront investment over a long period of time, such as: telecommunications companies, infrastructure companies such as airports or highways, nuclear power industry, hotel industry, property rental industry, etc
This method has the following advantages:
1) There are few companies with negative EBITDA, so this method covers a wide range of companies, and it is not easy to have negative valuations and cannot be compared;
2) The depreciation policies of each company are different, resulting in differences in net book profit, and the use of this method can avoid the difference in depreciation methods and facilitate comparison between different companies under the same business model
The specific calculation formula is: EV/EBITDA = (equity market value + interest-bearing debt - cash)/EBITDA
Wherein: EBITDA = EBIT + Depreciation and amortization = Operating income - Taxes and surcharges - Operating costs - Selling expenses - Administrative expenses + depreciation and amortization.
There are a few points worth considering:
1) Why do you subtract cash from the formula?
2) If the company has a large number of cross-shareholdings, is this indicator still applicable?
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market