After repeatedly making a big fuss in the South China Sea, the Philippines still can't bear it, and recently began to talk to China one after another, but this time China first approached the United States.
Not long ago, after a tense confrontation between China and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao, the Philippine side began to gradually soften its tone. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. publicly stated in a recent interview that the Philippines has always been committed to resolving its disputes with China in the South China Sea by peaceful means, and that they will not resort to force or intimidation, nor will they deliberately harm anyone.
At the same time, he also emphasized in a speech at the Western Command of the Philippines that they refuse to follow the rules that force the Philippines to take sides in the great power competition. Not only that, but Marcos Jr.'s executive secretary and the most powerful civilian secretary in his cabinet, Lucas Besavin, has publicly stated that he will not classify China's current behavior as an "armed attack" and that the standoff between China and the Philippines is a misunderstanding.
Immediately afterwards, Philippine Foreign Secretary Manaro revealed during a Senate hearing that China and the Philippines may hold a meeting on the South China Sea issue next month, and not long ago, the two sides also set up a special working group. Manaro also stressed that the Philippines hopes to resolve its recent differences with China through diplomatic means.
Including Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Romualdez also said that the Philippines does not want a major conflict with China. Of course, it is not only Philippine government officials who are constantly letting go of the wind, but also the Filipino people have begun to speak out. It is reported that in the past two days, the Philippine-Chinese Business Federation has united 32 Philippine associations to issue a joint statement.
They called on the two countries to peacefully resolve their differences over the South China Sea through dialogue as soon as possible, and stressed the importance of China-Philippines relations. However, there are three main reasons why the Philippines has suddenly softened its attitude in the past two days after making trouble in the South China Sea for more than a year. First, trade between China and the Philippines has recently lit up a "red light".
As relations between China and the Philippines have become increasingly strained, trade between the two countries has also declined significantly, and this is despite the increase in trade between ASEAN and China. This also means that the Philippines' share of trade in China is gradually being replaced by other ASEAN countries.
In addition, the recent export volume of Vietnamese bananas to China has surpassed that of the Philippines, you know, Philippine bananas occupy the hegemony of exports to China all year round, and this time it has brought a lot of blows to the Philippines by Vietnam's overtaking. That is why the Philippines is aware that its differences with China in the South China Sea have had a negative impact on economic and trade relations between the two countries.
Recently, the director of the Philippine National Economic and Development Agency, Arsenio Balisacan, also publicly stated at a meeting in Japan that Chinese investment in the Philippines is welcome, and also called on the two countries to separate politics from the economy. Second, the Philippines' internal political scene is becoming increasingly volatile.
Since Philippine Vice President Sarah resigned from all positions in Marcos Jr.'s cabinet, Duterte and his two sons have decided to run in next year's Senate election. You must know that in the 2022 election, the Duterte family and the Marcos Jr. family are still running together, and now there are signs that the two families are going to break up, and the Duterte family is also brewing to challenge Marcos Jr.
The main reason why the two families have come to this situation is that the two families have become more and more divided in political views, including on China-related issues, the Duterte family is very opposed to Marcos Jr.'s approach. It can be seen that Marcos Jr. is currently facing increasing pressure at home, which makes him have to inject more energy into domestic affairs.
Third, the Philippines is stalling for the next provocation. According to Marcos Jr.'s style, it is impossible to give in to China easily, so it is likely that this dialogue between the two countries will buy them more time to prepare for the next provocation, and at the same time, it can also temporarily ease the current tense situation and prevent the situation from getting worse.
It is worth mentioning that before talking to the Philippines, China first approached the United States this time. It has been learned that in the past two days, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and US Deputy Secretary of State Campbell had a telephone call. During the call, Ma Zhaoxu also warned the United States again on the South China Sea issue not to continue to condone the Philippines to stir up trouble and provoke.
Obviously, China is well aware that the contradictions with the Philippines are small, but the constant interference of foreign forces such as the United States is the root cause of the problem. Therefore, if the Philippines really wants to avoid further deterioration of Sino-Philippine relations, it should show enough sincerity and keep an appropriate distance from the United States, rather than just paying lip service.
#军史观察团#