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"France has suddenly collapsed!"
This is a message posted on social platforms, accompanied by screenshots of the collapse of assets in the French financial markets across the board, and even the azure blue and some icons on the screen are bright red.
All this hints that the French national economy is in a very serious crisis, and the news on social media has attracted a large number of onlookers.
Why did France fall to this point?
Who wants to bring down the French economy?
Or is there something wrong with France itself?
However, the various manifestations of the market are major issues that no one can ignore.
Political risks and electoral challenges.
In June 2012, Macron became France's Minister of Economy, then left politics in August 2014 to work in the private sector, and then decided to run in the French presidential election in January 2016.
Unsurprisingly, in 2017, Macron won the election by nearly 2 percent, and he was the first fully liberal president since 1958 to be fully liberal.
During his tenure, he implemented a consistent way of thinking in the process of legislating and his economic policies either against him or on a counterattack, which led to both supporters of the ruling government at home and abroad, as well as strong resistance to him.
It is true that Macron has continued to implement reforms during his tenure, such as French labor laws.
These reforms have also benefited the majority of people, such as lowering the cost of social insurance and extending working hours.
Macron will naturally offend some interest groups when he pushes through reforms, and his Unionist Party, which has won a large majority in the election of parliamentarians, will also make these reforms easier to advance in the formal legislative process.
Although Macron was criticized by some leftist forces when he implemented reforms, he did protect the rights and interests of some workers while implementing reforms.
And during his tenure, France's economy also performed well, but many people were dissatisfied with his reforms, mainly Le Pen, the female leader of the National Alliance.
Because the French National League did not have a very high level of support on the national side a few years ago, but the level of support of the working class or peasants in France is very high, especially in the peasant side.
Despite its strong organizational and appeal among the working class and peasant groups, the National League does not have much support in parliament, and it is almost impossible for Le Pen to become president.
But in the polls, Le Pen is more competitive than Macron, because the National Alliance has always been leading in the polls, and Macron has always lagged behind.
With 25% of the vote in the European Parliament elections in 2014 and 27.7% in the 2015 local elections, it seems that Le Pen still has a good chance of winning the 2022 presidential election.
So what impact did Le Pen have on Macron's appearance?
I still remember that in 2017, the predecessor of the French National Alliance was the former French National Party, which has a long history in Europe, and once occupied the ruling position in France in the last century.
And in 2017, Silvio Berlusconi, the president of the former French National Party, decided to let the party umbrella stop its previous party name and let the National Alliance take over the flag of the former French National Party.
In 2011, Le Pen became the deputy leader of the French National Alliance, and was also the head of finance of the National League until 2017, when Le Pen became the leader of the French National Alliance.
Economic turmoil brought on by political turmoil.
There was once such a joke that was very popular in France: "If Macron is elected, then Europe will no longer be a scattered sand, and if Macron is elected, then the French stock market will collapse."
This sentence is very popular on social media, and all of this is related to Macron's liberal economic ideas.
And now some jokes on social media have been very valuable for reference, such as the phrase "Tsai is elected, Taiwan stocks will definitely plummet" that was very popular on social media before, and sure enough, after Tsai was elected, Taiwan stocks suffered a heavy blow.
This time, when Macron chose to run for the French presidential election, people speculated that the French stock market might be hit.
Since Macron's general election in 2017, the stock price of Banque de France has skyrocketed, and in June 2021, Macron said that he was absolutely sure of defeating the National Alliance again, and all this also made the stock price of Banque de France soar again.
It was during Macron's tenure that the National Alliance came to prominence, and it was mainly because Macron's reforms caused some people to resent that the National Alliance had a new soil to develop, and it was also confirmed in the stock price of the Banque de France.
When Macron proposed to pass the reform quickly, the stock price of the Banque de France also began to decline slowly, and in the process of the second round of parliamentary elections, the stock price of the Banque de France also fell sharply, which also confirmed the joke on social media from another aspect: "The French stock market will collapse with Macron".
In June 2021, Le Pen launched another attack on Macron's popularity, which also caused the share price of the Banque de France to plummet again, and finally the party of the Free Macron coalition took 75% of the parliamentary seats.
But this is only a warm-up performance, and now the real crisis is still to come, because in 2022, Macron will face a real electoral challenge, full of his opponents, and the various economic policies during Macron's tenure have made both domestic and foreign capital feel very unstable.
In June 2021, Le Pen asked the Bank of France to suspend cooperation with the European Central Bank, and suspended cooperation with the central banks of Deutsche Bank, Bank of Italy and other countries.
Since 2020, France's domestic affairs sector has had high yields and is heavily dependent on the ECB's "bond purchase" program, which has also allowed the economic sector to be very well funded in the fiscal sector and able to solve problems through bond issuance.
In one year, the assets of the French economic sector have risen from 35 billion to 80 billion now, and almost all of France's capital has been transferred by banks during this year.
Everything is fine now because banks have a lot of liquidity reserves, but in 2022, capital began to flee France, as the Bank of France has moved away from the ECB.
When Tai Chi Group thought that the French National League might take power in 2022, it began to withdraw capital on a large scale, but while domestic capital was withdrawing, foreign capital was pouring in.
In this case, the assets of the French financial market have also fallen, such as the French stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market, which are suffering from a violent sell-off.
The possibility of the National Alliance coming to power.
At this time, domestic capital only thinks about escaping, which also leads to the continuous decline in the stock market price of French enterprises, while foreign capital is the first to buy, and at the same time, it is also deployed and mitigated risks internationally.
In the latest report of the Spanish group Massei National Generals, it is also pointed out that the Banque de France has made huge mistakes in the process of withdrawing capital at home and abroad.
Moreover, at the same time as the large-scale withdrawal of capital, the Bank of France has moved away from the European Central Bank, which leads to the fact that the Bank of France cannot control the situation in the process of large-scale withdrawal of capital.
They want more support from European countries, but the ECB has made it clear that it will not make any changes to the current policy in France, which is very distressing to the Bank of France.
In 2022, once the National Alliance is truly elected and has greater power and a voice, it will bring about a major change in French economic policy, and Macron's liberal ideas will be completely broken.
The policies advocated by Le Pen, as well as the uncertainty and risks that will be brought about by the National Alliance, will greatly affect France's domestic economy, and even affect France's position within the European Union.
epilogue
Under Macron's leadership, France's economic and financial assets are in decline, and at this time of disagreement, Macron has to face challenges from Le Pen's political opponent, which makes his work even more stressful.
The various political turmoil and economic turmoil in France are also the result of internal and external troubles, and many French people also hope that the situation of the country will change.
But if far-right forces such as the National Alliance are really brought to power, it will also bring more uncertainty, which will not be good for the future development of France.