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The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

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A number often has both superficial and deep meanings. Just like this year's National Day box office. 2.721 billion yuan, which at first glance is twice that of last year. But if you look closely, last year itself was almost the bottom of nearly a decade.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

And the reason why the market exploded last year was also due to the environment, many blockbusters were withdrawn, and the only one who really got it was "Thousands of Miles Home". This year is very different. 11 new films are fighting, including 5 weighty films, and star actors are gathered.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Looking at the single-piece box office, the winning "Rock Solid", the box office did not exceed 1 billion during the schedule. In horizontal comparison, the champion "Changjin Lake" in 2021 won 3.2 billion at the box office, and "Me and My Hometown" in 2020 also had nearly 1.9 billion.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

To summarize the characteristics of this year's National Day movies: the main theme film is not popular, the explosive film is difficult to explode, and the dark horse film pulls the crotch. Some experts try to find answers outside the cinema, such as "audience frequency", "the boom in tourism has led to audience diversion". In Pigo's view, these are avoidances.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Today we will give the five "heavyweight movies" of the National Day file to "look and hear" to see where their respective "problems" are. Part 1: "Predecessor 4: Teenage Marriage". "The Predecessor 4" caught everyone off guard as soon as it came up. On the first day of release, the "Grand Slam" was achieved.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Looking at the box office of the latter few, they are still lower than "Predecessor 4". But this phenomenon did not continue. The status of "Predecessor 4" was soon replaced by "Rock Solid". However, "Predecessor 4" has never fallen behind, basically ranking second.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Just thinking of the box office of nearly 2 billion in "Predecessor 3", the box office performance of the fourth part has indeed dropped a lot. Pico believes there are two reasons. First of all, "Predecessor 4" lost the innate advantage of "Predecessor 3".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

The slogan of "Goodbye Ex" in "Predecessor 3" not only did not violate taboos, but attracted many young female audiences into theaters. It seems that watching this movie is a "ritual sense" to say goodbye to the past completely. In addition, the songs "Decent" and "Scattered" of the movie have spread widely and helped the film a lot.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

When it comes to "Predecessor 4", the most attractive label is the sequel to "Predecessor 3", and the difference can be imagined. Secondly, compared with the previous work, "Predecessor 4" began to take a profound route. The first three parts are all about the division and union of young men and women, love and love, and mixed with a lot of meat jokes, young audiences eat this set.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

But "Predecessor 4" voluntarily abandoned these routines. began to use Yu Fei's premarital trial love to tell about the marital pain of adults; Start letting Meng Yun go on a blind date. Meng Yun was also moved by a girl, but the love he missed again and again before made him not have the courage to take the next step.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Many people have experienced this stage of marriage or love, and they have experienced it deeply. It's just that young audiences can't get used to it. In the end, the movie's Douban score was only 6.1 points. It can be seen that the young group is really unwilling to buy this "profound". The second part: "It doesn't seem to be so hot".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

The film is adapted from the Spanish comedy "Basketball Champion". The box office of 130 million is indeed not enough to watch, but the score of 7.1 on Douban ranks first in the National Day file. Pico also watched the main film, objectively speaking, the quality is not too good, but it's okay.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Wei Xiang is quite suitable for this role, he plays well, and the theme of special groups + basketball is also quite novel. However, it is not unexpected that the box office does not rise. First, the movie lineup is average, in other words, the audience has better viewing options;

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Second, the audience vented their emotions about "happy twist" on this film. And it should be noted that "Super Family" is only two months from now. Of course, then again, this movie is not actually produced by "Happy Twist".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

But the actors Wei Xiang, Allen, and Wang Zhi all have a strong "happy twist" label. In the perception of most ordinary viewers, "they are all in a group". Maybe that's fate. It can be seen that the box office miracle of 2.6 billion yuan of "This Killer is Not Too Calm" has given the producer a lot of confidence.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

So they are willing to fight again on director Xing Wenxiong and starring Wei Xiang. But this time it was so unfortunate. It's really regrettable, if you want to blame, blame the "initiator". Part 3: "The Great Robbery of the 93 International Train: Operation Moscow".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Qiu Litao, who has repeatedly lost battles this year, finally came up with a movie that he could watch. But the small pattern still limits its box office performance. Some people say that director Qiu Litao is more and more like Michael Bay, and some netizens even call him China's "Exploding Bay". This nickname shows that Qiu Litao has a very good way of handling big action scenes.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

But the other implication is that he only focuses on creating stunning action shots, but not very good at telling stories. Due to the large number of "inventory" in the past two years, this year Qiu Litao took out 4 works in one go. Among them, "Drug Sweep 3: People in the End of the World", released in July, opened high and went low, and hastily closed with a box office of 284 million yuan.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

"Assassination Storm", released in mid-August, did not sell well, and the final box office was only 80.65 million yuan. And "Jedi Pursuit", released at the end of August, lost even worse, with a box office of only 29.25 million yuan. Perhaps the film side was afraid of Qiu Litao's "four consecutive defeats", and "Operation Moscow" opened a propaganda offensive very early.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

The real case behind the movie is very sensational, and in 1995, director Mak Donald also made a version, starring Lu Liangwei. Although Qiu Litao's Operation Moscow has been tightened in scale, it still retains its violent elements as much as possible.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Driven by Andy Lau, Zhang Hanyu, Huang Xuan, Wen Yongshan, and several actors, he swept away the decline of Qiu Litao's previous 3 films and scored 6.7 points on Douban. But perhaps the theater line has not enough confidence in "Qiu Litao's film", and "Operation Moscow" has not been able to get a good arrangement from the beginning.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

In addition, the movie itself focuses on creating action scenes, but lacks reasonable character shaping, and the fast-paced literary drama is like going through the motions. These common small pattern problems of Hong Kong films have affected its box office performance.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

"Operation Moscow" has currently received 457 million yuan at the box office, which is already the best performance of Qiu Litao's films this year. Although there are some disadvantages, it is also worth taking a look if everyone is interested. Part 4: "Volunteers: Heroic Attack".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

After "Changjin Lake", Chen Kaige ambitiously created the "Volunteers" trilogy, which for the first time showed the full picture of the history of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea from a panoramic perspective, so it is very valuable and historical.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

The film not only explains the problem of "why the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea was fought", but also restored the classic battle examples such as "Rushing to Sansholi" and "Bloody Battle Pine Bone Peak" to the screen for the first time. The movie's score on Douban is 7.1, which is not high, but it is also the best among National Day movies.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

It can be seen that most of the audiences who have seen the movie have given positive comments. After the "harvest" of the two blockbusters "Changjin Lake" and "Watergate Bridge", the audience also developed aesthetic fatigue against the theme of US aid Korea. This is understandable. If someone treats you to a steak dinner, you'd love it.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

But after letting you eat for two days in a row, you will also get tired of eating eighty percent. Moreover, compared with "Changjin Lake" starring Wu Jing and Yi Yangqianxi, "Volunteers" lacks super big-name movie stars to join. Although more than twenty stars are also gathered, there is still a lack of real finality (Wu Jing participated in the sequel).

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

When the film is being promoted, it is even necessary to make an article about Zhang Songwen, who has just become popular, which shows how embarrassing his situation is. In addition, although "Volunteers" is a very good movie, it lacks points that can be remembered and discussed. A few days after the movie was released, there were not many netizens discussing the movie online, resulting in the lack of stamina of the film.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

The media's prediction of the box office of "Volunteers" is also very pessimistic, predicting that its final box office will only be 833 million yuan. More worryingly, there are two sequels that have already been filmed. I don't know what Bona Film is going to do with these two films. Part 5: "Rock Solid".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

"Rock Solid" is undoubtedly the most anticipated movie in recent years. The scale and lines in the first version of the trailer also whetted the appetite of fans. It's a pity that a large area of deletion and modification makes it difficult for the audience to make an objective evaluation of the movie. The content that was deleted also caused unlimited speculation among netizens.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

For example, "Li Zhitian's original ending", "another identity of Vice Mayor Zheng Gang", "The background of the mayor's wife He Xiuli". However, in addition to the discussion, the negative impact of these topics on the film itself cannot be underestimated.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

Although "Rock Solid" still maintains about 27% of the films, the box office growth is slow, the box office has just crossed the 1 billion yuan mark, and the final box office is predicted to be around 1.546 billion yuan. Summary of the National Day file: Chen Sicheng's prophecy has been fulfilled again.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

In addition to the 5 movies mentioned above, 6 cartoons also chose to be released on National Day. But among them, only "The Wangwang Team Makes a Contribution Movie 2: Super Adventure" got 97.03 million yuan at the box office, ranking behind "Not So Hot".

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

The remaining 5 movies have very few schedules, and the box office is not worth mentioning. Based on the above comments, I believe you have also seen that the most prominent shortcoming of these movies is that the ratings are not high, and they are hovering at 6-7 points.

The movie failed! Chen Sicheng's prophecy is being fulfilled

To sum it up in one sentence, "everything is mediocre" and lack of discussion are the biggest factors affecting its box office performance. The performance of the National Day film market also reminded Pi Ge of Chen Sicheng's prediction 3 years ago.

At the 2020 Beijing Film Festival Forum, Chen Sicheng said that the audiovisual effects and immersive experience of cinemas are difficult to replace. But what kind of film will shine in the theatrical market? He believes that there are two. The first, high-level blockbusters, can bring the audience an absolutely shocking audiovisual experience;

The second is a movie with strong social attributes and high topicality. There are realistic themes such as "I Am Not the God of Medicine", and there are films such as "Disappearing Her" that still discuss the details of the plot after watching it. Comparing these two, we look at the movie of the National Day file, and the conclusion is obvious.

Originally, "Rock Solid" met the second type, and there was a possibility of a big explosion. Unfortunately, excessive cuts led to a decline in audience interest in the film, and the box office also declined. Although this year's National Day file has become history, the problems reflected in several films are worth thinking about by our filmmakers.

Next, in the Spring Festival file 3 months later, many popular movies may meet the audience again.

Including Jia Ling's new film "Hot and Hot", "Article 20" directed by Zhang Yimou, "Mr. Red Carpet" jointly produced by Ning Hao and Andy Lau, Tsui Hark's new film "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Great Hero", and the sequel to "Nezha's Demon Boy Descends" "Nezha: The Demon Child Troubles the Sea".

All of them have the potential to become hits, but the final big winner should still be produced in the two movies mentioned above. We'll see.

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