The national team won't save the market?
Let's start with a solicitation today.
Recently, the market has risen and fallen, and there is less attention when the market is bad, but as a job and everyone's company, I still maintain sensitivity to the market during this time, and share some market changes, events and impacts every day, and at the same time, I will also tell you some non-market topics through a series of articles on investment management.
Let's talk about a few things today.
One is about the two financial phenomena of the market.
Let's look at domestic capital first.
This is the scale change of CSI 300 ETF in recent days, and it can be seen that the scale of the 24th has dried up to more than 30 billion, indicating that there is a large amount of money to buy the bottom. Now we all know that this day was bought by Huijin, which is the so-called national team.
Data source: choice time period: October 24, 2023 - November 01, 2023
However, after October 24, the size of new additions to ETFs has become smaller and smaller, and even in recent days it has been negative.
Looking at another science and technology 50 ETF, it shows a similar pattern, and the scale has shrunk for three consecutive days.
Data source: choice time period: October 24, 2023 - November 01, 2023
It can be seen that the bottom-buying funds have been temporarily extinguished in the past few days.
Why can't we continue to bail out the market and turn off the fire at the end of the day?
Actually, there are two reasons.
One is that the national team may not have much cash in hand.
According to the 2023 interim report released by Huijin, most of the total assets currently held by Huijin are long-term equity investments, about 6.2 trillion yuan, which are difficult to realize in the short term. And the monetary funds that can really be taken are only 29.7 billion.
Therefore, the national team suspended buying, probably because there was not much cash in hand.
Source: Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. 2023 Semi-Annual Report
However, the main body of the national team is not only Huijin, and if you really want to pull the index up, there are actually many ways.
Therefore, there may be another reason for the flameout, that is, I hope that the market can rely on its own strength to rise.
To put it bluntly, the market that relies on external forces to pull up is also a strong external force, and once the bailout funds are withdrawn, it may have to fall again. Moreover, the more Huijin buys now, the more troublesome it will be to withdraw in the future, and it will cause unnecessary panic when the time comes.
Therefore, now the national team is in a dilemma, it is not to buy, it is not to buy, it is not to buy, and it can only silently pray that foreign capital will not smash the market again, and domestic capital will also compete for some gas, and the market can get out of the bottom by itself.
Let's talk about foreign investment.
Today, the tail of the north suddenly swept the goods, if you take it out alone, it will definitely not explain anything, but it is still worth continuing to pay attention to.
Because after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting yesterday, U.S. bonds plunged sharply, representing a decline in market interest rates, and global funds are looser than in the past.
Data source: Choice time period: June 1, 2023 - November 2, 2023
As I said yesterday, the recent continuous selling of northbound funds is very demoralizing, and the follow-up depends on whether the continuous decline of U.S. bonds can become a turning point for northbound funds to sell from the A-share market.
The second is about listing review.
Recently, there is a theme sharing that the market is more concerned about and hotly discussed, the title is "Embracing the Comprehensive Registration System, Giving Full Play to the Direct Financing Function to Serve Scientific and Technological Innovation and High-quality Development", which is a sharing by a teacher from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the content is not public.
The main thing is to say that in the future some operations on the listing.
First of all, the current listing review is in a tightened state, when the stock market improves, it will be relatively liberalized, and at the same time, the follow-up will continue to study the policy of continuing to activate the market.
Looking at the recent data on the number of issued families, except for the Beijing Stock Exchange, the others have dropped a lot recently. However, it was reported yesterday that the Shanghai Stock Exchange resumed the IPO review of six companies, including Xinhu Futures, Huzhou Bank, Hongxing Technology, Lianya Pharmaceutical, etc.
Secondly, the review cycle is still 1 year for science and technology, 2 years for the GEM, and 1 and a half years for the main board. Among them, in the positioning of the main board, there are some restrictions on the list, mainly for the industry to which the listing belongs, which has not been released but is being implemented in actual operation.
In addition, emerging technology industries are also prioritized, and they tend to give priority to those with a high degree of commercialization. gave a few negative examples, such as autonomous driving and hydrogen energy, the industry is not very mature, and then photovoltaic and energy storage industries have been listed in many places, unless the difference in technology can be fully proven, the general direction of artificial intelligence is encouraged, but it still values the ability of commercial landing.
If that's the case, it's really not all companies that can get on it.
The third is the "Measures for the Management of Capital of Commercial Banks" issued yesterday.
This document, also known as the new rules for bank asset management, had a draft opinion in February, this time it is a formal document. I read the manuscript in the morning, but I really didn't understand it, it was too complicated, and the CPU burned out. In summary, the conditions of the new regulations are more relaxed than those in the draft opinion, and the easing of capital pressure on banks means that they can engage in more business than expected, which is a certain benefit in this regard.
Fourth, about the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in November ended, as I said before, there will be no interest rate hike in November, and Powell hinted from his words that the interest rate hike may be over, but the scale of balance sheet reduction has not changed, and it may feel that inflation is still not at the target level.
If the interest rate hike ends, the follow-up attention to the changes in U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar, which have a greater impact on global asset liquidity, once the fall is good for Hong Kong stocks, biomedicine, and northbound funds, and pay attention to when interest rates will start to cut.
At present, there is a high probability of interest rate cuts this year, and the data shows that the probability of a rate hike in December is still more than 20%.
Source: CMEGroup
Until May next year, the probability of an interest rate cut rose to more than 30%, and in June to more than 60%, that is, the probability of a rate cut in the second half of the year is even greater.
Source: CMEGroup
This chart is the US federal funds rate, the last rate hike was from 17 to 19 years, the rate cut cycle was from 20 to 22 years, and this time the rate hike cycle is from 22 to 24 years.
Source: Choice
2 years and 2 years, they are all cycles, and they are all reincarnations, including the stock market, we can't control how the main funds do, what we can do is to gradually take the chips in the downward cycle when it is cheap, be present during the upward cycle, and leave the market when it is crazy.
Risk Warning: Fund investment advisory services are provided by Yingmi Fund. Investors should fully understand the difference between regular and fixed investment of funds and savings methods such as small deposits and withdrawals. Regular investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. However, regular investment does not avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, does not guarantee investors to obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. If you need to purchase relevant products, please do a risk assessment in advance, and judge the purchase of fund products or fund portfolio strategies that match your risk level and tolerance according to your investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status, etc. As the fund investment advisory business is still in the pilot stage, there is a risk that the pilot qualification will be cancelled and the service will not be able to continue.
The returns generated by the Fund's portfolio strategy for other clients do not constitute a guarantee of performance. The risk characteristics of a fund's portfolio strategy are different from those of a single fund product. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors should read the relevant legal documents and make their own investment choices, as the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
Special Statement
The information and opinions contained in this official account do not constitute investment decision-making advice for the purchase and sale of any securities, funds and other financial instruments, and do not constitute operational advice on any person at any time that is targeted and guides specific investments.
The opinions, evaluations and forecasts contained in this official account are only the views and judgments of the date of issuance of the information, and there is no guarantee that the relevant views or analysis judgments will not change in the future.
The research opinions and data written by other professionals or institutions forwarded or excerpted in the article only represent their own analysis and judgment and do not represent the views of this official account, and do not make any form of confirmation or guarantee for the information and opinions therein. This official account does not assume any responsibility for any person's behavior based on or use of the information contained in this official account or any consequences arising therefrom.
The content published on this official account is only owned by the 82-year-old base selection factory team. Without permission, no institution and/or individual may forward, reprint, copy, publish or quote all or part of the content published by this official account in any form.
Disclosure of employment information:
Practice Number: A20190725001973
Company: Zhuhai Yingmi Fund Sales Co., Ltd