On June 21, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s executive secretary Bel Jamin said that the Philippine government did not believe that the 617 Ren'ai Jiao incident was an armed attack, but a misunderstanding, and therefore would not activate the mutual defense treaty with the United States. Not only that, but he also said that China would be notified in advance of any further resupply operations at Ren'ai Jiao in the future. The attitude of the Philippines has changed a bit bit, and it is really a little unaccustomed. On the day of the 617 incident, the Philippine military and the Philippine government were still very tough, not only accusing China with bad words, but also demanding that the Chinese side immediately return the seized guns and compensate the loss of Philippine rubber boats and other equipment. In the reports of the Western media, there are a large number of voices that believe that the 617 incident is very close to the red line of the South China Sea war mentioned by Marcos Jr., and the United States should consider activating a mutual defense mechanism. Unexpectedly, only a few days later, the Philippines' position has reversed 180 degrees. One has to ask, what happened in the intervening few days?
As we have analyzed before, the reason why the Philippine government dares to send naval special forces to attack Ren'ai Jiao is obviously a decision made by the top level of the government. It is necessary to engage in a little military adventure, on the one hand, to show the United States, and on the other hand, to try the quality of the Chinese side. At that time, there were reports of public opinion polls, and most Filipinos believed that as long as there was a real conflict between China and the Philippines, the United States would definitely actively intervene to make it impossible for China to eat and go around. Although no one has yet disclosed the process of communication between the United States and the Philippines, we can speculate that the U.S. government apparently poured cold water on Marcos Jr.'s feverish head. The United States does not intend to use the US military to support the Philippines, and the statement issued by the US State Department on June 17 is all it supports. If there is no statement of substance, you will not be able to return the eight guns, repair the rubber boat, and find the fingers of the special forces. In this case, how did Marcos Jr. and his staff team feel? I don't think there's anything else I can feel like but sadness, anger, frustration, and the feeling of being betrayed.
Although the Philippines suffered a big loss in the 617 incident and lost face afterwards, it was still reluctant to give up Ren'ai Jiao. As a result, Bersamine said that in the future, he would notify the Chinese side in advance of the supply of supplies to Ren'ai Jiao, which would be tantamount to returning to the original framework of the gentlemen's agreement between China and the Philippines, and turning the non-public agreement into an open agreement. Bel Savin was Marcos Jr.'s confidant, and he stood up to speak, apparently at Marcos Jr.'s behest. Prior to this, the new model agreement reached between China and the Western Military Region of the Philippines was collapsed by the Americans. Now the Philippines has even omitted the negotiation process and has to directly follow China's plan, which is actually a slap in the face of the United States.
Can the Philippine idea be realized? I'm afraid it's not that simple. Trust is hard to build, and it's a split second to break it. The Philippine government has brazenly torn up the new model it promised, and after hitting a wall, it wants to return, how can there be such a good thing in the world? China will not bully the weak with the big and the small, but it will not let the Philippines turn the clouds and rain, and the Philippines may have to pay the price for its short-sightedness and willfulness. So far, the Chinese side has not responded to the Philippine side's statement, and it is estimated that the relevant departments are studying the conditions. Whether the past agreements will be allowed to be maintained, or whether the issue of shipwreckage will be resolved once and for all, the results will soon be met. But no matter how China responds, the United States has lost face. As a real military ally of the Philippines, it was the United States that instigated this small country to embark on the road of confrontation with China. It was the United States again, which fled when he was needed to keep the covenant. The two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers were also deliberately withdrawn from the ocean near the Philippines on June 15. We want to see how the United States will sell its anti-China plan to other countries on other occasions in the future. I am afraid that it will be difficult to have a second Zelensky government in this world, and it is difficult for a second Marcos Jr. to fall into such a trap.
Of course, the anti-China forces in the United States will not rest on their laurels. After all, Marcos Jr.'s net worth and life are still in the hands of the Americans, and the United States has not yet exhausted his value and has not yet eaten him up. No one can guarantee whether Marcos Jr. will do something desperate next. Perhaps seeing such a risk, the daughter of former President Duterte has resigned from all positions in the Marcos Jr. government, completely exited the Marcos administration cabinet, and only retained the vice presidency that does not belong to the cabinet position, apparently not wanting to jump into the fire pit with him. We need to continue to heighten our vigilance and always guard against the possibility of anti-China forces jumping over the wall.