(Report Producer/Author: Guohai Securities, Yao Jian, Du Xiankang)
1. Electron beam detection is a key equipment for advanced manufacturing processes
Quantity testing equipment is the key guarantee of chip yield
According to different processes, semiconductor testing is divided into front-end testing, back-end testing and laboratory testing, among which, front-end testing is mainly used in wafer processing, and is currently mainly based on online monitoring of production lines in the factory; The back-end inspection is mainly used in the electrical test and functional test of the chip after wafer processing, which is mainly divided into third-party testing and online monitoring of the production line in the factory; Laboratory testing is mainly for defect location and fault analysis of failed samples, which is currently mainly divided into third-party laboratory testing and self-built laboratories in the factory.
The front-end quantity testing equipment has two types of functions, one is to ensure the mass production yield of the IC production line, and the other is to quantitatively monitor the production equipment to provide a basis for equipment acceptance and maintenance. According to the technical means, the front-end detection equipment is mainly divided into optical detection, electron beam detection and X-ray detection equipment, this paper aims to analyze the basic principle, development trend, supply and demand of electron beam detection equipment.
Electron beam inspection enables the development of advanced manufacturing processes
There is a resolution bottleneck in optical inspection. Resolution refers to the minimum distance between two points that can be clearly separated by the instrument, and according to the ABBE formula, the resolution of the instrument can be improved mainly by: 1) reducing the illumination wavelength and 2) increasing the aperture angle. The incident wavelength is the main factor affecting the resolution of optical microscopy, which is limited by the visible wavelength range (400-760nm), and the ultimate resolution of optical microscopy is about 200nm.
The advanced manufacturing process poses great challenges to optical inspection. Optical inspection is currently the main technology for semiconductor quality control, which has the advantages of fast speed, non-contact, and easy online integration. In order to improve the detection accuracy, the wavelength of the light source used by the most advanced quantity inspection equipment has included the DUV band, and at the same time, it no longer relies solely on analyzing the pattern on the wafer to capture defects, but by combining deep image signal processing software and algorithms, it can find weak abnormal signals in limited signal-to-noise ratio images, and the process level of detection can be further improved. However, as process nodes continue to evolve, the proportion of noise in inspection results increases significantly compared to true defects, and the reliability of optical inspection in advanced node applications decreases.
Secondary electrons are the primary imaging signal of a scanning electron microscope. The basic principle of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is to use the electron beam emitted by the electron gun to be focused and then grated to scan the surface of the specimen in a grating shape, and analyze the composition, morphology and structure of the specimen surface by detecting various signals generated by the interaction between the electrons and the specimen (secondary electrons, backscattered electrons, absorbed electrons, Auger electrons and characteristic X-rays, etc.). In scanning electron microscopy (SEM), the signal used for imaging is mainly secondary electrons, followed by backscattered electrons and absorbed electrons, and the signal used to analyze components is mainly X-rays and backscattered electrons.
The multi-beam approach increases inspection speed. The maximum imaging speed of traditional SEM is always limited by Coulomb interaction and detector bandwidth, and the detection efficiency can be improved by multi-beam scheme, which is an important direction of electron beam detection. However, according to the "Integrated Circuit Industry Encyclopedia", in order to achieve the same detection speed as optical inspection, hundreds or even thousands of electron beams need to be operated in parallel, and the equipment cost will be greatly increased, and the research focus is to strike a balance between system complexity, overall machine cost and detection efficiency.
The electron beam inspection market is expected to grow rapidly. According to VLSI statistics, in 2023, optics, electron beam, and X-ray technology will account for 81.4%, 14.2%, and 2.3% of the global semiconductor front-end testing equipment market, respectively. Compared with optical detection technology, electron beam technology has a slower rate and higher equipment cost, but the detection accuracy is higher. According to MMR, in 2022, the global electron beam detection market will account for more than half of the applications below 1nm, with the reduction of integrated circuit process nodes, the reduction of defect size, the increase of defect density, and the gradual increase of the risk of missed detection, electron beam detection technology has significant resolution advantages, and has a unique ability to identify electrical defects, the global electron beam detection market is expected to grow rapidly from 2022 to 2029, with a CAGR of 19.9%. In 2029, applications above 10nm will become the main market for electron beam technology.
2. The domestic electron beam testing equipment market is expected to develop rapidly
The development of advanced processes and supporting industrial chains is expected to accelerate
The third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (hereinafter referred to as the "third phase of the big fund") was officially established on May 24, 2024, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, which exceeds the sum of the first phase of the large fund (98.72 billion yuan) and the second phase of the large fund (204.15 billion yuan). According to the book database, as of June 2018, investment in manufacturing, design, packaging and testing, and equipment materials accounted for 63%, 20%, 10% and 7% respectively. According to the statistics of Xindao, as of March 31, 2022, the investment in wafer manufacturing, integrated circuit design tools and chip design, packaging and testing, equipment/components/materials, and applications accounted for 75%, 10%, 2.6%, 10% and 2.4% respectively. The third phase of the big fund: Considering the shortcomings of the mainland in the advanced manufacturing process, as well as the "stuck neck" problem in the supply chain of supporting upstream equipment, parts, materials, EDA and IP, the advanced process and its supporting industrial chain may become the key direction of the third phase of the big fund. At present, the localization rate of semiconductor front-end testing equipment is only in single digits, and electron beam testing equipment is the key guarantee for the yield of advanced process chips, and it is expected to accelerate its development in the future.
In 2024, the global/Chinese mainland volume testing equipment market space will be 15.9/5.5 billion US dollars
According to VLSI statistics, the global volume testing equipment market space in 2020/2023 will be 76.5/12.83 billion US dollars, with a CAGR of 18.8%; In 2023, the global semiconductor measurement/inspection equipment market space will be 39.5/8.71 billion US dollars, and the optical/electron beam/X-ray inspection equipment market space will be 104.4/18.2/300 million US dollars, respectively.
We estimate that in 2024/2025, the global semiconductor quantity testing equipment market space will be 15.9/19.6 billion US dollars, the Chinese mainland semiconductor quantity testing equipment market space will be 5.5/6.8 billion US dollars, and the global electron beam testing equipment market space will be about 2.5/3.4 billion US dollars, of which the key size measurement market space of electron beam will be 1.1/1.5 billion US dollars, the electron beam defect detection market space will be 6/800 million US dollars, and the electron beam defect review equipment market space will be 8/ $1 billion.
Hypothesis 1: In the global semiconductor equipment market in 2023, the market share of semiconductor quantity inspection equipment will be 12%, and it will be +1% every year in 2024/2025.
Hypothesis 2: The market share of global measurement/testing equipment in 2024/2025 will maintain 30.8%/67.9% in 2023; Among the measurement equipment, the market share of key size/overlay accuracy/wafer film/mask/3D topography measurement equipment will maintain 15.5%/6.7%/4.5%/1.1%/0.6% in 2023, of which the market share of wafer dielectric film measurement/wafer metal thin film measurement equipment will maintain 3.9%/0.6% in 2023; Among the inspection equipment, the market share of pattern wafer/mask defect detection/non-pattern wafer defect inspection equipment will maintain 35.6%/14.1%/10.3% in 2023, of which the market share of brightfield nano pattern wafer defect detection/darkfield nanopattern wafer defect inspection/wafer pattern wafer defect inspection equipment will maintain 19.5%/8.4%/7.7% in 2023;
Hypothesis 3: With the continuous development of advanced processes and complex devices, the advantages of electron beam detection technology are becoming more and more obvious, the market share of electron beam technology in 2024/2025 will be +1.5pct year-on-year compared with 14.2% in 2023, the market share of optical technology will be -1.3pct year-on-year compared with 81.4% in 2023, and the market share of X-ray technology will be 2.3% year-on-year and -0.2pct year-on-year compared with 2023. The market share of electron beam defect inspection/electron beam defect review equipment and equipment is 6.6%/3.3%/4.3%, respectively, and will be +0.5pct/+0.5pct/+0.5pct in 2024/2025.
Assumption 4: The global market share of semiconductor equipment in Chinese mainland will remain 34.4% in 2024/2025 in 2023, and the global market share of quantitative testing equipment is consistent with that of semiconductor equipment.
3. There is a broad space for domestic substitution of electron beam testing equipment
Global: International giants dominate the electron beam inspection equipment market
The global electron beam testing equipment market is highly concentrated, and European, American and Japanese companies are in a monopoly position. According to VLSI statistics, in 2023, the CR5 of the global semiconductor quantity testing equipment industry will exceed 84%, mainly including KLA, Applied Materials, Hitachi, etc., of which the market share of Kelei Semiconductor is as high as 55.8%. In terms of electron beam testing equipment, according to the statistics of applied materials, in 2021, the market share of applied materials, Hitachi, ASML, KLA and other companies will be 50%, 28%, 15% and 6% respectively.
Domestic: There is a broad space for domestic substitution of electron beam detection equipment
Domestic suppliers of electron beam testing equipment are scarce. In the semiconductor quantity testing market in Chinese mainland, the localization rate of equipment is low, and international giants are in a dominant position in the market, according to VLSI statistics, KLA market share will reach 55.8% in 2023. In 2023, the revenue of Shanghai Jingce and Zhongke Flying Testing will be 332 million yuan and 891 million yuan respectively, and the domestic market share will be 1.06% and 2.84% respectively. In the field of electron beam testing equipment, the main domestic suppliers include Shanghai Jingce and Dongfang Jingyuan.
Jingce Electronics: Brightfield detection continues to develop, and DR-SEM is leading in China
Advanced process DR-SEM is in the lead. In terms of electron beam detection, the company is one of the very few scanning electron microscope enterprises with completely independent intellectual property rights in China, and has developed and broken through the ultra-high-resolution scanning electron microscope technology, which is suitable for the automatic detection of process defects of 1x nm advanced integrated circuits. The company's electron beam equipment has obtained bulk orders from domestic first-line customers, and electron beam defect review equipment has obtained repeated orders for advanced manufacturing processes.
AMEC: the domestic leader in etching equipment, accelerating the layout of the testing track
Continue to enrich key equipment categories, or will focus on the electron beam detection market. Founded in 2004, AMEC's main products include etching equipment, MOCVD equipment, thin film deposition equipment and VOC equipment, etc., according to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the company plans to cover 50%-60% of the key equipment of integrated circuits in the next 5-10 years. By investing in Ruili Instruments, AMEC will consider getting involved in the electron beam testing equipment market in the future.
Excerpts from the report:
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent our investment advice.) To use the information, please refer to the original report. ）
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official Website