#长文创作激励计划#
Sources: All information stated in this article is based on reliable information, and is summarized at the end of this article
The RMB exchange rate fell to a record high, causing concern in the international market, and in the face of the imminent payment of 10 trillion US bonds, the United States once again used the US dollar interest rate hike policy to lay a wide net to harvest the world's wealth.
As the tug-of-war between China and the United States becomes more severe, will China be able to survive the crisis in the face of the depreciation of the RMB? What impact will the U.S. interest rate hike policy have on the international market?
The local currency has weakened, causing concerns
The international exchange rate has always attracted the attention of all walks of life, after all, the increase or decrease of the exchange rate will directly affect the money bags of enterprises and even ordinary people.
However, with the continuous changes in the international market and driven by many influencing factors, the international exchange rate has fluctuated greatly in recent years, which has caused widespread concern in the economic market.
As the world's second largest economy, China's exchange rate has remained relatively stable, but as the United States throws the bait of high exchange rates in the economic market, it seems that the RMB exchange rate will not escape the clutches.
Recently, the exchange rate of the RMB once fell to 7.29, compared with the previous exchange rate has remained at 7.2, although only a decrease of 0.09, but in the international market, this 0.09 is a big earthquake.
To take a relatively simple example, before 1 US dollar could be exchanged for 7.2 yuan, with the depreciation of the yuan, now it can only be exchanged for 7.29, but if it is converted into trillions or billions of units, this will be a staggering number.
The decline of the renminbi will first put pressure on the import and export trade, and the current international trade settlement, the US dollar settlement still holds a high share, and the depreciation of the renminbi will undoubtedly put pressure on China's exports.
In the past, an export order could earn 1 million, but the decline in the yuan may only earn 900,000 now, and for some enterprises that rely on the production of imported parts, they will also face increased costs.
In addition, the depreciation of the renminbi has also triggered the vacillation of some investors, one is the distrust of the renminbi, and the other is the thirst for high interest rates on the dollar.
Investors have been reducing their holdings of RMB and buying US dollars, which has exacerbated the continued decline in liquidity in the RMB market and further increased the pressure on RMB in the economic market.
In fact, in addition to China, in the international market, it is not difficult to find that all countries are more or less affected by the depreciation of their own currencies, and the reason behind this is precisely because of the high-interest bombs dropped by the United States.
Keep raising interest rates and set a trap
The world has long been aware of the current economic predicament of the United States, but it is hindered by the current influence of the United States in the world, especially the position of the dollar in the economic market.
Countries can only turn a blind eye to some of the actions of the United States, but for the cheeky United States, it is obvious that there is only selfish desires in his eyes.
The current inflation rate in the United States has reached a point where it is almost impossible to salvage, especially under the premise that some banks in the United States announced their collapse at the beginning of the year, some professionals analyze that the dollar is very likely to explode at any time.
This has naturally aroused concern from all walks of life in the international community, especially for those countries and investors who hold US bonds, reducing their holdings of US bonds has become their only option, and some companies have even moved their business centers abroad.
This is undoubtedly worse for the United States, because the United States currently holds 34 trillion in debt, which is much more than the annual revenue of the United States.
The United States has long entered a state where it cannot make ends meet, and in the face of the problem of debts that are due one by one, the United States can only use the most stupid method, that is, to tear down the east wall and make up for the west wall.
The United States uses new debt to supplement old debt, but the payment of debt interest is overwhelming the United States and cannot breathe, and this snowball is also getting bigger and bigger, like now, the United States is facing the pressure of 10 trillion U.S. debt maturity.
In order to retain investors and maintain the stability of domestic U.S. bonds, the United States had to take a risky move, that is, to raise interest rates, and the United States has not cut interest rates for seven consecutive times.
In the latest Fed release, the current interest rate in the United States remains between 5.25% and 5.5%, and the United States continues to attract foreign investment.
It has to be said that since the U.S. interest rate hike, the U.S. interest rate hike policy has indeed played a positive role in the U.S. domestic economic predicament, such as the U.S. inflation rate continued to rise.
However, under the influence of the U.S. interest rate hike policy, the inflation rate in the U.S. has fallen to 2.7%, which can be said to be a remarkable achievement, but the U.S. obviously does not want to stop there.
According to relevant sources, the Federal Reserve hopes to eventually reduce the inflation rate in the United States to 2%, but as we all know, the economic predicament of the United States is stable, but at the cost of the whole world taking the blame for the United States.
Just like Japan and South Korea, there have been thunderstorms in the United States' interest rate hikes again and again, enterprises in the two countries have closed down one after another, prices have skyrocketed, and the people are miserable.
However, it is not a wise move for the United States to blindly raise interest rates, because although the US interest rate hike has risen, it will put pressure on the export trade of its own country.
Although there was a decline, the overall situation was relatively stable
Judging from the depreciation of the RMB, it has to be denied that it has indeed had a great impact on China's domestic market, but from the analysis of international data trends, the current depreciation of the RMB is really insignificant.
In other words, although the renminbi has depreciated, this is a helpless move due to the general environment, and China still has a strong competitiveness in the international market.
China's manufacturing sector, for example, has surpassed the United States for 17 consecutive months, and from another perspective, a weaker renminbi will reduce export profits.
But at the same time, it will promote the growth of China's trade orders, because Made in China has always enjoyed a good reputation in the international standing, and for low-priced, high-quality Chinese products, it is extremely tempting for countries.
Therefore, under the influence of the US dollar interest rate hike, although the RMB exchange rate has been affected, in the long run, the current depreciation of the RMB is almost negligible.
The US dollar interest rate hike has made the entire international market unhappy, but in the face of the cheekiness of the United States, international countries have long understood it, so all walks of life in the international community are looking for ways to solve it.
Countries such as China and Russia have been adopting the process of de-dollarization to weaken the influence of the dollar in the international position, after all, the economic predicament of the United States is already an established fact.
For all countries, compared to the impact of short-term interest rate declines at home, the key is to get rid of the control of the dollar as soon as possible, since the United States has been ignoring the life and death of other countries, then whether the United States thunders and falls off the altar has nothing to fear.
Resources:
Four major factors caused the LPR to "stand still" in April, and the institution: there is no room for further downward adjustment in the short term - Qilu one point
In the second half of 2024, where should the money be placed? -- Shangguan News
The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new low this year, approaching 7.3, how to go? ——China News Network
【Financial Analysis】How will the offshore RMB exchange rate go in the second half of the year to break 7.3 for the first time this year? ——Xinhua Finance